Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, after a continuous rebound, we should pay attention to the rise and fall at any time. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the opportunity of undervalued varieties under the switching of market style. In terms of operation, if the index is adjusted, the potential opportunity of cross-year market will come again.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high. After the opening, led by heavyweights such as securities, they rushed up continuously, breaking through 3700 points, and regaining this point again after nearly three months. However, the good time did not last long. Previously, many plates rushed up and fell, and the index fluctuated lower. However, the gem ushered in an intraday high in the shock, showing the opposite trend to the Shanghai index. On the disk, the media sector led the rise, with building materials, public utilities, petroleum and petrochemical and coal leading the rise, while banks led the decline, while real estate, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and other sectors fell.
Since last week, the launch of financial stocks has directly driven the market performance, and the Shanghai index has also recovered 3600 points and exceeded 3700 points in a row. Among them, the performance of securities companies is the most eye-catching and the absolute main force of the Shanghai index. However, there was a certain trend of weakening and falling over the weekend after the continuous strength of the brokerage sector under the expectation of reducing the standard and landing last week. However, the news of the comprehensive registration system proposed at the important meeting last weekend once again brought good news to securities companies. However, the weak opening this morning basically expected the rise and fall of the plate, which was also basically in line with the consensus expectation of the market; In addition to the securities sector, there are also expectations for the decline of bank stocks. After all, the central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve last week, which brought slight pressure on banks and other financial stocks;
Therefore, today's market decline is mainly dragged down by the withdrawal of financial stocks, which is also basically in line with market expectations. However, even if it falls down due to resistance, at present, at the time of multi-party boost and market enthusiasm recovery, the space for the decline of the index is relatively limited. For investors who have not been configured in time before, if the index falls down, it is a better time to configure the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year.
On the whole, under the RRR reduction, the market easing expectation increases again. With the monetary and credit easing trend expected to be established in the coming year, the probability of a good market trend increases greatly. The short-term northward funds, securities companies and other emotional sectors have boosted the market, which is expected to promote the in-depth development of the index. However, after continuous upward movement, we should also pay attention to possible pullback. For investors who lurk in advance, they can appropriately sell high or reduce their holdings in stages, while for investors who are still waiting, wait for the index to retreat or a good opportunity to enter and allocate. Specific opportunities: focus on new and old infrastructure varieties benefiting from steady growth expectations and valuation repair, as well as financial sectors with performance support and valuation advantages. In addition, due to the overall downward pressure on the economy, we can continue to track the science and technology varieties with high boom certainty.
(Jufeng Finance)
