The three major A-share indexes collectively closed up today. The Shanghai index once stood at the integer mark of 3700 points, and finally rose 0.40% to close at 3681.08 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to close at 15212.49, with four consecutive positive days on the daily line; The gem index rose 0.87% to close at 3496.96 points, and the daily line was also positive for four consecutive days. The market turnover reached 1.27 trillion yuan, the industry sector rose and fell, and Yuan universe concept stocks rose sharply. Northbound funds bought a net 5.366 billion yuan today.
Today’s news:
1. Six key words read and understand the central economic work conference: fully implement the stock issuance registration system, and once again emphasize that housing is not fried
2. Super central bank week! The Federal Reserve led nearly 20 central banks on the stage, several “hawks” and several “pigeons”?
3. Towards the end of the new year, pig prices do not rise but fall? Double digit decline in slaughter volume of large pig farms triggered market concerns!
4. What is the impact of temporary shutdown of more than ten A-Shares due to the epidemic?
5, north capital last week net purchase amount of innovative high focus Baijiu and financial stocks
6. Mao index and Ning combination compete on the same stage. Who is better at the two tracks?
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the policy setting of the central government for steady growth and the joint efforts of future policies will promote the economic recovery beyond expectations, intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence, abundant market liquidity supports the relay of incremental funds, and the cross year blue chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months. First of all, the policy setting of the central economic work conference made it clear to stabilize growth in order to cope with the superposition of “triple pressures” in economic operation; Structural policies will be rebalanced, paying more attention to the coordination between short-term pressure and medium-term objectives; At the same time, the policy puts more emphasis on implementation, and the future policy synergy is expected to promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. Secondly, the overall economic data gradually disclosed shows that the economic growth toughness in the fourth quarter is strong. At the same time, the policy alleviates the real estate anxiety, the monetary policy is intensively implemented, the subsequent credit repair will last for several quarters, and the market risk appetite will continue to improve. Finally, the macro liquidity is still abundant, the market liquidity is extremely abundant, the relative attractiveness of RMB assets is still strong, and the northward capital will maintain a sustained net inflow. The reallocation of Chinese institutions and cross-year financial funds will form an incremental capital relay and drive the position adjustment of stock funds. The consensus of the market on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that looking forward to the future, the economic uncertainty will be reduced, and the downward risk evaluation and rising risk preference guided by this will become the core driving force: on the one hand, the 2021 economic work conference pointed out that the economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, and steady growth has become the primary goal of economic work. With the strengthening of fiscal policy expenditure and the front pace, the monetary policy is stable and wide, superimposed with the endogenous force of structural industrial policy, and the pessimistic expectation of economic downturn is expected to ease. On the other hand, it emphasizes the “correct understanding” of a series of important issues such as dual control of energy consumption and carbon neutralization, positive role of capital and savage growth, which effectively reduces the uncertainty of market concerns from the perspective of policy correction. Based on the above, with the gradual clarity of the core contradiction, the downward expectation of profit is gradually repaired, and the denominator is pushing the cross year market to a higher level.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the core change in the market is the strengthening of the expectation of stable policy growth, and the market performance continues to evolve around this main line. The central economic work conference continued the spirit of the previous meeting of the Political Bureau and stressed that we should continue to do a good job in the work of “six stabilities” and “six guarantees”. Next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. Looking ahead, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the “reversal” of the global economic cycle and the new changes of the epidemic. At present, China’s capital market is in a more favorable environment compared with the world. Under the expectation of “steady growth”, we should pay attention to the progress of policy countercyclical regulation in the future. In terms of style, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the main line of “stable growth” will continue with the possible implementation of social finance credit and financial planning and deployment. Since the beginning of the year, some relatively strong manufacturing growth styles may be relatively backward temporarily, and the market style may temporarily show a pattern of “big strength and small weakness”.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that style is divided into value, growth, large market and small market. Since 2007, the style effect of large and small market capitalization of US stocks has weakened, and the growth style has been dominant. The change in style stems from the comparative change in profit growth. Economic growth has shifted from speed to quality, industry concentration has increased, and the rotation law of large and small market capitalization has weakened. In the past, the bull market usually grew and the small cap was dominant. It is estimated that the value and market in 22 years are slightly dominant, and the CSI 300 is stronger than the CSI 500. On the whole, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that under the dual pressure of interest rate restricting valuation and profit decline next year, the A-share market may usher in a rest. Historically, in this kind of market environment, the market and value are often better choices. At the same time, combined with the relative valuation of the style, we believe that the market value style is expected to continue the trend since 16 years last year, that is, the market is slightly better; In terms of growth value style, in terms of time, the dominant cycle of this round of growth lasts for three years, and there may be continuation of the growth style in the future. However, considering that the valuation premium of the relative value of growth is relatively obvious at present, the style is expected to return to value slightly next year, similar to the overall dominant growth in the middle of 2009-15, but the style also shifted to value in 2011.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that the cross year market has begun. At the same time, the periodic marginal “wide credit” expectation is increasing, which continues to promote the index market with size resonance. The economic work conference promotes the four main lines of the new year’s market: 1) pay attention to securities companies, an important carrier of the new year’s market interpretation. The meeting proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system” and refer to the normalization and acceleration of IPO in recent years, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released. 2) New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair. On the one hand, the economic work conference stressed that “cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined”, and required “moderately advance infrastructure investment” and “promote the construction of indemnificatory housing”. On the other hand, the meeting required that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and the follow-up monetary and credit are expected to be further relaxed, resulting in the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. 3) Double carbon related new energy and coal sectors. The meeting called for a correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, set the tone of “double carbon” first and then break, and put forward policies such as “promoting the optimal combination of coal and new energy” and “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity. On the one hand, “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control”, It is expected to drive the continuous acceleration of construction in the field of new energy. On the other hand, “based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal”, will also drive the valuation and repair of the coal sector. 4) Science and innovation growth plate represented by “small high tech”. The meeting called for stimulating the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises and increasing support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. At the same time, the macro environment has entered the stage of “wide currency and stable credit”, and the market style will further favor high prosperity and high growth science and technology innovation and science and technology. In the medium and long term, science and innovation is the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under the policy of common prosperity. It is also the most distinctive main line of the times to get rid of the “stuck neck” dilemma under the background of China US game.
Minsheng Securities said that due to the high dividend rate in 2021, the roe of all A-Shares will remain upward while the profit growth rate will decline to 6.5% in 2022, which is expected to break through the long-term trend. After the credit tightening and valuation compression in 2021, due to the loose policy, the demand recovery will resonate with the economic transformation. We calculate that the expected yield of Shanghai Composite Index in 2022 will reach 14.9%. However, it should be emphasized that the real opportunity of A-Shares is not the current “cross year market”. The expectation of overseas interest rate increase and the fragility of trading structure make it more structure oriented at present, and the full year and comprehensive market in 2022 is more worthy of expectation. Since 2021, a large number of industries ROE and ROIC have broken through their downward trend for a long time. They will continue in 2022. This phenomenon has appeared in traditional industries represented by Baijiu after 2016. Future demand will be more easily accepted by market investors than simply supply contraction, and the value of traditional industries will be reassessed, and cyclical stocks will outperform commodities. In emerging industries, focusing on new energy power generation side, power infrastructure, carbon reduction in traditional industries and automobile intelligence are their main directions. Three main lines are configured in the industry: (1) traditional industry configuration: Iron and steel, banking, securities companies, non-ferrous metals (copper, gold and aluminum), coal, crude oil chain (oil service engineering, oil transportation) and building materials; (2) New energy power generation side (photovoltaic modules, power operators), power infrastructure (wires and cables, smart grid), smart cars and carbon reduction in traditional industries; (3) Rural Revitalization will become the most important new growth clue after 2022 (agricultural machinery, seed industry, environmental protection and county consumption).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that “stability” is the key word of the central economic work conference. Against the background of the global epidemic and the multiple pressures on China’s economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, properly advance the policy force, smooth the economic fluctuations before the 20th National Congress, and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range. In the current vacuum period of corporate earnings data, “loose liquidity + steady growth policy” has become the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market”. The follow-up counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies support the economy, and the market risk appetite is expected to rise. Maintain our bullish view on a shares, and the structural market of A-Shares continues. In terms of December alone, A-Shares are expected to continue the cross-year market, and do not catch up or fall on the plate / individual stocks. In terms of industry configuration, there are three main investment lines: 1) new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.); 2) Consumption upgrading, food, beverage, medicine, etc; 3) The “real estate” sector, which benefited from the marginal change of the real estate policy of “implementing policies due to the city”, focused on the central enterprises with improved market share. Theme investment focuses on “double carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading”, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that recently, China’s capital market has ushered in the synchronous rise of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. From the driving factors behind it, on the one hand, the demand for steady growth has been strengthened, and monetary easing has taken the lead while the expectation of broad credit has been raised; On the other hand, the rising uncertainty of the external epidemic, coupled with the slowing down of China US relations, promoted the appreciation of the RMB, and the admission of foreign capital was also significantly accelerated. Six impacts of the central economic work conference on the stock market: 1. Economic stability comes first, and the process of entity “deleveraging” has come to an end. Since the beginning of this year, the macro core lies in: external exceeding expectations and internal deleveraging. With the credit pulse bottoming out in October, the process of deleveraging in the physical sector has basically come to an end, and the probability of starting a moderate “deleveraging” next year. 2. From stable to wide credit, the certainty of wide credit is improving compared with 730 Politburo meetings. After the third quarter, the credit environment gradually changed from tight to stable, which was more affected by special bonds and financial rhythm; Looking back, the certainty of broad credit will be further improved, and the credit conditions are expected to stabilize in a real sense by the end of the year, driven by the financial front, real estate correction and credit direct tools. 3. Whether the growth target reaches 5.5 or not, it needs the power of traditional economies such as infrastructure and real estate. Considering that the two-year compound growth rate in the third quarter of the 21st century was only 4.9%, and there was further downward pressure in the fourth quarter, it was necessary to promote the development of traditional economy such as infrastructure and real estate. And the high-frequency data points to the demand data related to infrastructure and real estate. Recently, there have been stabilizing signals. Looking back, we should not be overly pessimistic about the traditional economy. 4. Carbon neutralization is established first and then broken. Double carbon bid farewell to “one size fits all”, and the tone of ensuring supply and stabilizing price continues. Energy consumption policy is more flexible, and double carbon bid farewell to “one size fits all”. High energy consuming enterprises dominated by green energy will no longer be excessively subject to the “energy consumption” index per unit output, and the green power sector will usher in positive clarity. 5. On the industrial policy side, it pays attention to regional balance, monopoly industry reform and agricultural security. Next year, market competitive businesses in monopoly fields such as power grid, telecommunications, railways, oil and natural gas are expected to be liberalized at an accelerated pace; At the same time, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of seed industry, agricultural machinery and other related industries. 6. The reform of the registration system has been carried out in an all-round way, and the importance of equity market financing has further increased. The logic of A-share long-term funds entering the market has been changed. After the implementation of the real estate tax, residents’ funds entering the market with the help of institutions will still be the main increment of the stock market. Public offering + private placement is expected to contribute more than 1.5 trillion incremental funds next year.
From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held. From a strategic perspective, how to see its impact on a shares? Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) indicates that the first is the steady growth link rod. The meeting demanded that “next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced.” It can be seen that the steady growth signal is further clarified. Combined with the research and judgment of the macro group, the policy force is appropriately advanced, the probability of economic success is high, and the annual economic growth may show a Nike trend. Mapping to equity, standing at the present, experienced Baijiu repair and growth led, the market ushered in third nodes, that is, undervalued value will grow with steady growth force to start the stick, pay attention to banks, securities dealers, real estate chain. Second, the study and judgment of next year’s income. The meeting pointed out that “we must adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, adjust policies and promote reform, grasp the timing and efficiency, and adhere to standing first and then breaking, steady and steady.” Mapping to equity and looking forward to 2022, with steady growth, we believe that there is a high probability that residual liquidity will continue to improve. In other words, the probability of Shanghai stock index in 2022 will rise from the bottom area in 2021. Further combined with the yield distribution under different market characteristics, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) it is estimated that the yield of equity mutual funds in 2022 will be significantly differentiated, and the overall yield or marginal improvement compared with this year. Third, pay attention to growth and differentiation. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises. Mapping to equity, we should pay attention to growth differentiation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. First, under the background of structural bull market, significant differentiation within growth is a normal phenomenon. Take March 2020 to March 2021 as an example, the yields of semiconductors and new energy, which also have medium-term prosperity support, are significantly differentiated. Second, combined with the deductive laws of the semiconductor structure bull market in 2019, the Mao plate structure bull market in 2020 and the new energy structure bull market in 2021, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the boom is the core, the valuation water level and fund position will affect the follow-up space, and the structural bull market will switch between the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
YueKai Securities said that the important meeting was held to study and judge the current economic situation – China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation. For the general tone of next year’s policy, the steady growth of “stability first, seeking progress in stability” and paying attention to the improvement of quality at the same time. The expectation of stable growth in the future is expected to rise again. In the direction of development, fiscal tax reduction and fee reduction and moderately advanced infrastructure are the main starting points for the realization of “stable growth” in economic underpinning next year. In terms of liquidity, the monetary policy still emphasizes maintaining a stable monetary policy, but the requirements and constraints on indicators such as money supply, social finance growth rate and macro leverage ratio are deleted. We still maintain a more positive expectation of monetary policy, and the policy strength is expected to be more active next year. In terms of micro liquidity, market transactions continued to pick up, and funds went north to deduce the “tail raising market”, with a net purchase of 48.8 billion yuan last week, a record high single week net inflow. Overseas, US inflation continues to soar. In November, CPI increased by 6.8% year-on-year, a new high in nearly 40 years, exceeding market expectations. In addition, core CPI increased by 0.5% month on month. We expect that the rising inflation data will accelerate the pace of the Federal Reserve taper, which may be completed as early as Q1 in 22, and start the interest rate increase cycle before the end of the year. China and the United States will usher in the dislocation of the financial cycle. Looking forward to the future, the A-share market is still expected to usher in a “tail raising market” under the multiple expectations of policy + liquidity + marginal improvement of economic data. Near the end of the year, A-shares will face valuation switching. We sort it out from this perspective: in terms of total volume, the A-share economic cycle will be downward in 2022 (both kichin short cycle and zhugra medium cycle are in the second half), and profits may be under pressure, On the one hand, it is subject to the downward pressure on the economic aggregate. On the other hand, it is based on the impact of the high base effect in the same period last year. In this context, we believe that there are two investment directions in the near future: one is the opportunities brought by the improvement of performance expectations; Second, continue to pursue high economic uncertainty.
