Boosted by the positive news of the central economic work conference held last weekend, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated higher on December 13.
At the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% and the gem index rose 0.87%.
So far, A-Shares have exceeded trillion for 37 consecutive trading days. In addition, the total net inflow of northbound funds on that day was 5.365 billion yuan, which has been net purchased for 9 consecutive days.
Industry insiders believe that the central economic work conference has set the tone of “stability” and confirmed the direction of stable growth. The index has no systematic risk, which is good for the A-share market. The cross-year market continues, and the profit-making effect is expected to continue to rise.
“stability first” is good for the capital market
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10.
It is worth mentioning that 25 words of “stability” have appeared in the news draft of the central economic work conference. In short, next year’s economic work should “take the lead in stability and strive for progress in stability”.
A number of institutions interviewed by the 21st Century Business Herald have interpreted the impact of the “stability first” policy on the market in many ways.
Financing fund analysis, economic work conference set the tone and steady growth. It includes three aspects:
First, the conference expressed the pressure on the economy, “facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation”, indicating that the upper level’s judgment of the economic situation does not deviate much from the secondary market, which is the major premise;
Second, the meeting put forward corresponding measures to alleviate the pressure, re mentioning “taking economic construction as the center”, indicating that the focus of work next year (the focus in 2021 is structural reform), re mentioning “the combination of cross cycle and counter cycle adjustment”, re mentioning the real estate policy of “implementing policies according to the city” and “appropriately advancing the development of policies”, providing policy space for real estate, infrastructure and other directions;
Third, the meeting provided a political guarantee for steady growth and made it clear that “all regions and departments should bear the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, which is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue. All parties should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability and carefully introduce policies with contraction effect”.
“From the significance of this meeting to the market, the spring market may continue to perform. At least before the Spring Festival, the profit-making effect is expected to continue to rise.” Financing fund said.
ABC Huili Fund believes that the central economic work conference released the policy direction and continued the tone of “stability” of the Political Bureau as a whole, but the intensity was significantly upgraded.
“The policy environment is favorable, the economic expectation and market risk appetite in 2022 are repaired, the steady growth direction is confirmed, and the index has no systemic risk.” ABC Huili Fund pointed out.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Research Management Department believes that the central economic work conference set the tone to stabilize growth and correct policy deviations. Previously, the pessimistic expectations of the market for the economy are expected to be repaired. At the liquidity level, monetary policy will be loose in the next six months. According to the history before the end of the year, the capital of the stock market is better under the restless market in spring.
“It is expected that the future credit expansion will drive the repair of market valuation. There will be a cross year market as a whole. The industry probability will rise. In terms of rhythm, the main line of the short-term market is the industry benefiting from steady growth.” Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund pointed out.
Cathay Pacific Fund pointed out that from the perspective of this year’s market main line and risks, it mainly focuses on the following aspects: controlling the decline of real estate and social finance, double carbon, especially the upstream, Internet antitrust and education.
“From the perspective of 2022, the biggest tone of this meeting is’ stability ‘, and the latest explanations and tone have been made on the above issues.” Cathay Pacific Fund said that for education, we should still adhere to the basic public services under common prosperity. For antitrust, it emphasizes strengthening antitrust and unfair competition, strengthening the effective supervision of capital according to law, and preventing the barbaric growth of capital.
“The tone of this meeting is higher than expected, which is good for the stock market and will continue in the next year.” Cathay Pacific Fund pointed out.
To sum up, all fund companies believe that the central economic work conference has set the tone of “stability first”, the direction of stable growth is confirmed, the index has no systematic risk, which is good for the A-share market. It is generally believed that the market will have a cross year market, and the industry probability will rise. Among them, the main line of the short-term market is the industry benefiting from stable growth.
organization layout 2022
The capital market pays attention to the policy changes mentioned in the central economic work conference, and the institutional layout will be in 2022.
Boshi Fund believes that in terms of style, the marginal loosening of policies of previously restrained departments and the concerns about the valuation of some previously popular sectors will make the market style more balanced in 2022.
Boshi Fund believes that it should focus on the layout of “high boom continuation + boom reversal” in 2022:
First, it is suggested to consider new energy vehicles / military industry / photovoltaic, etc. with high prosperity in 2022;
Second, it is suggested to consider the auto parts / pig cycle with strong expectation of business reversal in 2022.
ABC Huili Fund pointed out that in terms of style, it is recommended to “high prosperity + balanced value allocation”, in which the value style is dominant at the initial stage of steady growth.
ABC Huili Fund said, “looking forward to 2022, the ultimate style will turn to convergence, and the strength of the boom is still the core of the market excess return.”
“The external environment will become macro bottom seeking + credit loosening soon. Under this combination, A-Shares usually maintain shock, and the poor performance differentiation of growth value will obviously converge. The value style with stable profitability will improve the allocation and cost performance after adjustment, and the large and small market capitalization companies may usher in the phased balance of style in 2022.” ABC Huili Fund pointed out.
In terms of specific direction, ABC Huili fund is optimistic about the high-end manufacturing direction represented by new energy and photovoltaic with reasonable valuation, and the investment trend of energy revolution under the trend of carbon neutralization; Industries with reasonable valuation and improved prosperity, such as some subdivided industries in consumption, intelligent driving, etc.
China Merchants Fund believes that in terms of the impact of the central economic work conference on the stock market, in the short term, strengthening the expression of stabilizing the economy and supporting the implementation of economic measures, coupled with the deployment of infrastructure investment or moderate advance, will strengthen the expectation of the economy and the market’s expectation of cyclical stocks in the short term.
China Merchants Fund pointed out that the correction of “double carbon” and other problems may also mean that there may be a correction in some industries that are good due to the strong implementation of medium and long-term policies in the early stage.
However, in the medium and long term, China Merchants Fund believes that the power field and degree of the underpinning policy will also face the policy demand of “not following the old road”. After the maximum stage of economic downward pressure in the first quarter of next year, the continuation of medium and long-term policy logic may also bring investment opportunities in medium and long-term fields, including new infrastructure, scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing and other industries.
The Financing Fund believes that the significance to the structure can lay out stable growth and financial consumption.
First, assets related to steady growth, such as real estate infrastructure investment chain, will directly benefit from the continuous overweight of policies, and new infrastructure (wind energy storage, power grid, etc.) will also benefit;
Second, after the emergence of the economic bottom, the market will have the expectation of stabilizing the bottom of Finance and consumption style. Accordingly, leading financial consumption companies with long-term business model and corporate competitiveness may be favored by long-term funds.
RONGTONG Fund pointed out that high-quality financial stocks highlight value: on the one hand, beta opportunities in the banking industry should wait until the economic bottom (policy bottom – market bottom – economic bottom) is confirmed, and individual stocks are preferred on the left. On the other hand, the RRR reduction and the spring market brought the short-term beta market of the securities sector.
Cathay Pacific Fund pays attention to the brokerage, green power and real estate industry chain, and is optimistic about new energy in the medium term.
However, many institutions also remind the possible risks in 2022.
Boshi Fund pointed out that in terms of a shares, although the tone of the central economic work conference is stable, the profit-making effect of A-Shares has expanded to a high level in 2021, waiting for a better position increase point.
ABC Huili fund reminds us to be vigilant against the following risk points in 2022:
First, if the A-share earnings decline exceeds expectations, there may be a risk of downward revision of performance in some industries. It is necessary to be more cautious about the prospect of industry prosperity and competition pattern in 2022;
Second, the macro-control force is less than the market expectation: the current policy is full of efforts to stabilize the growth, and there is no need to worry about the liquidity loosening in the first half of next year. However, the policy framework at this stage is a combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation, which is not a single objective decision-making system. If the economy improves significantly in 2022, there is a certain risk of decline in the phased underpinning policy.
(21st Century Business Herald)
