The central economic work conference was successfully held a few days ago, and the conference released the signal of “taking the lead in stability and seeking progress in stability”. On December 13, the three major indexes collectively closed up, and the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3700 points. Northbound funds bought net for 8 consecutive trading days, with a net purchase of RMB 5.366 billion on that day.
According to the institutional view, the holding of several heavy conferences in recent times has further strengthened the expectation of steady growth, which is expected to become the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market”. The repair of China’s consumer demand has accelerated, the development of traditional industries is expected to stabilize, the valuation and sentiment will be further repaired, and the dual carbon main line will be more clear with the upgrading of science and technology and manufacturing industry.
heavy conference strengthens steady growth expectation
As of the closing on December 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4% to close at 3681.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to close at 15212.49 points, and the gem index rose 0.87% to close at 3496.96 points. On the same day, more than 2200 stocks in the two cities rose, and the turnover exceeded trillion yuan for 37 consecutive trading days. It is worth noting that under the interconnection mechanism, northbound funds continued the trend of buying more than 48 billion yuan in the previous week, and the net purchase on that day reached 5.366 billion yuan.
The recently concluded central economic work conference further emphasized the importance of “stability”, and the signal of “stability” is stronger. At the same time, this year, it was proposed that macro policies should be “stable and effective”, and the policy force should be “appropriately ahead”, with more emphasis on the role of “effectiveness” and guiding expectations. Market participants said that the holding of several heavy conferences in recent times has further strengthened the expectation of steady growth and significantly boosted the confidence of the A-share market. The future performance of the A-share market will be more positive.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the core change in the current market is the strengthening of the expectation of stable policy growth, and the market performance continues to evolve around this main line. The central economic work conference continued the spirit of the previous Politburo meeting and stressed that next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. At present, China’s capital market is in a more favorable environment than the world. Under the expectation of “stable growth”, we pay attention to the progress of counter cyclical adjustment of policies in the future. In terms of style, with the possible implementation of social finance credit and financial planning and deployment, the main line of “stable growth” will continue.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also believes that the policy setting of the central government for steady growth and the joint efforts of future policies will promote the economic recovery beyond expectations, the intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence, the market liquidity supports the relay of incremental funds, and the cross year blue chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months. In its view, the macro liquidity is still abundant, the relative attractiveness of RMB assets is still strong, and the northward capital will maintain the trend of continuous net inflow. The reallocation of Chinese institutions and cross-year financial funds will form an incremental capital relay and drive the position adjustment of stock funds. The consensus of the market on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that since the expected landing of the RRR reduction, to the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, and then to the central economic work conference, it was mentioned that China’s economy is facing triple pressure, and the policy force is appropriately advanced. It can be seen that over the past week, the overall policy tone has been rising step by step, the bottom of the economy has been basically confirmed, and the market performance will be more positive in the future.
institutions take a positive view of the cross year market
It is worth noting that looking at the strategy report recently released by the institution, the cross year market under the policy signal of “stable growth” has become a consensus.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that with the reduction of economic uncertainty, the downward trend of risk assessment and the rise of risk preference will become the core driving force: on the one hand, the 2021 economic work conference pointed out that the economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation. Steady growth has become the primary goal of economic work, and the pessimistic expectation of economic downturn is expected to be alleviated. On the other hand, it emphasizes the “correct understanding” of a series of important issues such as dual control of energy consumption and carbon neutralization, positive role of capital and savage growth, which effectively reduces the uncertainty of market concerns from the perspective of policy correction. Based on this, with the gradual repair of downward earnings expectations, the denominator end has made efforts to boost the cross-year market to a higher level.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) also believes that under the background of the global epidemic and multiple pressures on China’s economy, the policy force should be appropriately advanced to keep the economy running within a reasonable range. In the current vacuum period of enterprise profit data, the driving force of steady growth policy will become the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market”. The follow-up counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies support the economy, and the market risk appetite is expected to rise.
In terms of market structure, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the high-low switching of the market will continue, and it is suggested to firmly focus on the layout of “three low positions”. Focus on the varieties whose fundamental expectation is still low, midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost and supply chain problems in the early stage, etc; At the same time, pay attention to the varieties with relatively low valuation, including high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, as well as Internet leaders in Hong Kong stocks; Finally, focus on the high boom varieties with relatively low stock prices after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment, special chip devices and military industry.
For the follow-up configuration, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) it is expected that the accelerated repair of Chinese consumption will guide the strength of the demand side, and the profit space of the food and beverage segment with a reasonable valuation is expected to be repaired by superimposing the peak consumption season at the end of the year. In addition, under the idea of “stabilizing the macro-economic market”, the “rescue of the development of small and medium-sized enterprises” has attracted more and more attention. The follow-up policy of ensuring that funds reach the real economy gradually will drive the capital cost pressure of financial institutions to continue to decline and restore profits. At the same time, the transition period of the new regulations on asset management is coming to an end, and the liquidity of the equity market is expected to be further improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets of the financial sector.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that from the perspective of economic setting, next year’s stability may have an impact on the pace of market industry allocation, but the upgrading of science and technology and manufacturing industry makes the dual carbon main line more clear. On the whole, the development expectation of traditional industries is stable, which is conducive to valuation and emotional repair, but the policy tone is still not strong stimulation. Therefore, the characteristics of insufficient medium and long-term profit elasticity of relevant industries still exist. What is clear is the focus of the goal of high-quality economic development, including the upgrading of manufacturing industry represented by “specialized and special new” enterprises; The three-year action plan for the reform of the scientific and technological system and the ten-year plan for basic research are the starting points for the escort of the basic scientific and technological system; The leading industries represented by the re carding of the dual carbon policy accelerated their development.
(economic information daily)
