Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for three consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. In the short term, two bank stocks are included in the FTSE China A50 Index, which may give a certain boost to bank stocks. Under the interference of overseas sentiment, the weak rebound of the market has reached the upper edge of the shock range, ushering in important nodes in the short term, or ushering in new direction choices. On the whole, we are optimistic about the good trend of the market, but the bottom of stage shock will continue.
On March 2 Beijing time, FTSE Russell announced the quarterly audit change results of FTSE China A50 and other indexes. Specifically, the constituent stocks of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) FTSE China A50 Index are deleted Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) . The change will take effect after the closing on Friday, February 18, 2023.
We will all pay attention to the FTSE China A50 Index, because it often has a certain reference significance for the opening of a shares. However, more reference significance also lies in the overseas attention to the Chinese market. From the perspective of FTSE China A50 Index adjustment, overseas funds still pay more attention to China. However, from the perspective of adjustment direction, funds have new trends, such as the favor of undervalued varieties such as banks and the weakening of relatively high subject stocks. In fact, this is also more in line with the main characteristics of the current market. After all, under the cycle of steady growth and monetary easing, the market of valuation repair and make-up may be more popular, and those subject stocks that have risen continuously are in progress periodically. However, when the FTSE China A50 Index is adjusted, we should still pay attention to the response of the market, especially the trading of specific underlying stocks.
In addition to the trend of overseas assets, in fact, since last year, the actions of Chinese institutions have not been small. Previously, wind data showed that according to the fund establishment date, 211 new funds were issued in January and February, with a share of 152587 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.45% and 80.6% respectively. It shows that the market as a whole is relatively cold, and the enthusiasm of new development funds is also declining significantly. To this end, the tide of institutional self purchase continues to come. According to the sorting of the reporter of Securities Daily, in the first two months of this year, 28 publicly raised self purchased 43 fund products under it, with a total of 765 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.12%; Among them, public offering and self purchase equity funds, hybrid funds, bond funds and fof funds were 355 million yuan, 315 million yuan, 75 million yuan and 10.019 million yuan respectively.
In fact, the self purchase tide of institutions began at the end of last year. Although the market will not respond immediately under the self purchase tide of institutions, looking at the historical performance, the self purchase tide is conducive to boosting market confidence. If combined with other factors, the foundation and trend of the overall market are still worth looking forward to.
At present, under the background of steady growth, the policy bottom has appeared, and the trend of capital bottom is relatively obvious when the monetary easing cycle is opened. Therefore, there is some basis for the overall support and boost of the market, but there are still repeated emotions, which suppresses the possible performance of the market as a whole. Therefore, we are not pessimistic about the market, but under the interference of various emotions, there is the possibility of shock bottoming in the short term. The index has rebounded continuously recently. We should also pay attention to the upper edge of the shock in the adjacent range and the pressure near the 3500 point of the Shanghai index.
