panel overview
On Thursday, A-Shares opened higher and went lower, led by the gem. On the disk, mining, coal, shipping ports, oil, gas, logistics, airports, tourist hotels, nonferrous metals, trade, chemical fertilizer, cement and building materials, railways and highways, iron and steel and other industries led the increase; Aerospace, battery, wine making, software development, computer equipment, communication equipment, Internet services, motor, semiconductor, photovoltaic, auto parts, shipbuilding and other industries led the decline. In terms of subject stocks, China Russia trade concept, covid-19 drugs, combustible ice, oil and gas equipment and services, shale gas, recombinant protein, natural gas and scarce resources led the rise, while Huawei Euler, RCS concept, Hongmeng concept, digital currency and lidar led the decline.
message surface
national development and Reform Commission arranges the supervision of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022
In order to implement the decision and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on ensuring the supply and price of coal, give full play to the role of “ballast” of medium and long-term coal contracts, and promote the safe supply of energy and the stable operation of economy and society, the general office of the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice to make deployment arrangements for further signing medium and long-term coal contracts and strengthening the supervision of contract performance.
Guo Shuqing: the real estate bubble and financial momentum has been reversed
Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a news conference of the new China office in March 2nd that the financial risks in key areas continued to be controlled in 2021, the macro leverage ratio dropped by about 8 percentage points, and the asset expansion of the financial system returned to a lower level, and the real estate bubble and financial momentum were reversed.
Powell hearing: inclined to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March
US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the US economy is very strong and inflation is far higher than the target. The Fed will flexibly raise interest rates in the coming months. Before the crisis in Ukraine, we were supposed to raise interest rates in March. Indeed, it is still appropriate to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March.
Jufeng viewpoint
pre market judgment : in the short term, the European and American stock markets rebounded collectively overnight, and the crude oil price exceeded US $110 / barrel, a new high since May 2011. It is expected that A-Shares will rebound synchronously, and the energy sector is expected to continue to rise. This week, we have two main judgments about the market: first, after the Spring Festival, the oversold rebound of growth stocks has come to an end, and then there is a greater opportunity for value stocks with low P / E ratio; Second, A-shares built a box during the two sessions and built a bottom with shock.
In fact, the three major indexes opened higher this morning, led by the opening of oil and gas exploration, port shipping, coal, oil and real estate, and the Shanghai Composite Index touched 3500 points.
After the opening, the gem index opened high and went low, and digital currency, lithium battery and consumer electronics fell rapidly; Oil, coal, ports, tourist hotels, non-ferrous metals, chemical fertilizers, cement and building materials, railways and highways, steel and other cyclical stocks rose, and the disk is a continuation of the pattern of strong Shanghai and deep weakness. In terms of technical form, the oversold rebound market formed on the gem after the Spring Festival is over, and then there will be shock bottoming.
investment suggestions:
Jufeng investment adviser believes that the central bank has continuously reduced reserve requirements and interest rates since December last year to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; However, the construction of the market bottom is more complex and there is a time lag between the market bottom and the policy bottom, so the trend of A-Shares has twists and turns. After the Spring Festival, the liquidity of the market improved, and A-Shares began to oversold and rebound. The value and growth rose one after another, but the sustainability was not strong. Be careful not to chase up. The time has entered the window period of the two sessions. The probability of A-share building the bottom box is high, and undervalued stocks are expected to be favored again; The medium-term proposal takes growth as the main line, and individual stocks with higher than expected growth in the annual report and the first quarter report can continue to participate in the rebound.
