Core view
\u3000\u30001. In the past two weeks, the growth style has dominated again, and the main line is still the reversal effect.
\u3000\u30002. This round of growth style may have some continuity in the follow-up, internal or gradual differentiation. When the history of resumption of trading and the internal differentiation of growth style, the differentiation of profit expectation may be the main clue.
\u3000\u30003. Wide credit landing, the market outlook does not need to be pessimistic. In terms of style, the growth of value needs to be balanced. Industry allocation, focusing on the combination of new and old drivers of steady growth, real estate and computer in the short term. Inflation chain focuses on Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) chain and oil and gas chain.
Weekly exchange: profit expectation drives internal differentiation of growth
Recently, the growth style has risen again and the growth value style has been rebalanced. At present, the market pays more attention to the continuity of this round of growth style and the internal differentiation of growth style. This week, we will analyze the subsequent change direction of growth style and investment opportunities in combination with the law of style switching and the profit forecast in the market for investors’ reference.
Last week, the sentiment of cjdi in the industry was divided, the financial and real estate industry cooled down, and the growth sector continued to pick up. As of Friday, the reading of our sentiment index cjdi (diffusion index) rose generally, and the whole a cjdi rose to 37%. The observation index used to measure the market width: the readings of HS300 and Shanghai composite index decreased in February, and the market transaction structure was concentrated. Under the framework model, the heat of the whole market is divided, the heat of the growth sector continues to rise, and the financial real estate has cooled down.
Discussion this week: profit expectation drives growth and internal differentiation. 1) In the past two weeks, the growth style has dominated again, and the main line is still a reversal effect. The continuation of subsequent growth styles needs a new main line. Due to the current liquidity environment and economic environment, it is difficult for the growth track to fully and significantly recover, and it is necessary to find a new main line for subsequent growth. 2) Profit expectation differentiation or internal differentiation of growth style is an important factor. In the upward range of growth style from early December 2020 to the end of January 2021, there are differences in the new electronic and electric industries: the overall profit expectation of the new electric industry is increased, the beta attribute of the industry is strong, and the overall increase is high; There are great differences in the profit expectations of the subdivided industries of the electronic industry, and there is a strong correlation between the internal differentiation of the industry and the adjustment range of the profit forecast. 3) This round of growth style may have some continuity, internal follow-up or gradual differentiation, marginal improvement of profitability or main line.
Industry configuration: focus on the combination of new and old drivers of “stable growth” in the short term
From a short-term perspective, focus on the combination of new and old drivers of “stable growth”. In the field of old kinetic energy, seize the opportunities of real estate and banks under the marginal correction of real estate, and in the field of new kinetic energy, closely track the computer and communication industries under the overweight of the “digital economy” policy.
Theme allocation: continue to pay attention to the deepening of national reform
The annual management pays great attention to listed state-owned enterprises with equity incentive willingness and scheme.
Risk tips
1. Variation of covid-19 strain or repeated local epidemic;
2. There have been major adjustments in China’s policies.
