“The wolf is coming, the wolf is coming”. After shouting “the wolf is coming” for half a year, it is finally coming this time.
Last night, the tone of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell obviously eased. Previously, the market expected the United States to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, but Powell revealed that he was inclined to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, which was lower than the market expectation, which was good news.
Moreover, in this speech, Powell did not mention the shrinkage of the table, so we can see that the US stocks rebounded well overnight and the European stocks also warmed up. However, the performance of A-Shares today is somewhat regrettable. The index opened high and went low, and did not rewrite the old script into a new ending.
Yesterday, it was also made clear in the notes that there are eight consecutive k-lines on the 60 minute K-line chart of Shanghai stock index. In this case, the probability of small changes is very high, so we should avoid chasing high. Today’s performance is expected. However, opening high and going low is also a very good warning. Do not chase after the rising trend after the sideways market. Even if you buy, you should choose the callback confirmation opportunity after the breakthrough.
At present, the index is still in the shock range of 8 K lines mentioned yesterday, so there is no need to worry too much for the time being. If it can be maintained in this range in the future, the market will form a double shock structure of large-level box and small-level box. The change intensity released by this size resonance needs our attention both upward and downward.
This resonant structure can often be seen on individual stocks. For example, DAGO randomly selected one stock – Ningbo Energy Group Co.Ltd(600982) . Before the sharp rise, from the K-line of Japan, Ningbo Energy Group Co.Ltd(600982) was a box shock. Before connecting the board, Ningbo Energy Group Co.Ltd(600982) built an hour line level box structure.
Isn’t it interesting? The purpose of this is to share some experience of looking at pictures. Don’t Dow Theory, wave theory and trend channel of technical analysis all have commonalities summarized from graphics? Now Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) see a doctor, why can it reach or even exceed the level of ordinary doctors? In the final analysis, it is also the conclusion drawn through image recognition. The same logic can also be used for reference to technical analysis.
After talking about the index, talk about the market. Today’s disk situation is not different from yesterday. It is still a concept stock affected by the geographical situation. Individual stocks in relevant sectors have become demon stocks, and the current momentum is still strong. On the one hand, the “gas” is like a rainbow, on the other hand, the “gas” is not connected with the “gas”. Affected by this, the conversion of coal to gas has also been pushed to the cusp of the storm, with a continuous rise.
In other words, for a long time, there were few research reports on the concept of oil and gas. Now oil and gas is hot, and the research reports of institutions optimistic about the future market keep up. A few days ago, I was still blowing new energy and track stocks. These days, I am blowing traditional energy again. International oil prices have risen by more than 20% in three days, and it is difficult for DAGO to say how this should end.
If the oil price continues to remain high, it will squeeze the profits of some middle and lower reaches enterprises. I’m afraid the first quarterly report of relevant middle and lower reaches enterprises will not be very good. What is more serious is that overseas potential economic stagflation will continue to depress market confidence, and European stock markets have shown signs of weakness. From this point of view, it is necessary to configure the defense sector.
Under the continuous speculation of funds on the sectors affected by the event, the boom tracks have fallen to varying degrees. Although the transaction amount of the whole market is large today, it is still a game of capital stock on the floor. If the sector rises, other sectors have to fall.
Although there has been bad news about resource stocks in the lithium sector recently, this horizontal adjustment is relatively healthy in terms of the sector index. In contrast, the semiconductor sector is a little weak. A big positive line is followed by adjustment for six consecutive trading days, which is a typical weakness. If this pattern cannot be changed rapidly, the probability of continued weakness is not small.
Traditional Chinese medicine is a promising sector of DAGO, but the sector is very fragmented. Under the general rise, the leading sector Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) has been killed in large quantities. In the final analysis, it has increased greatly in the past few years and has a high valuation. Stocks like this are the ones we mentioned earlier and need to avoid as much as possible.
Today, the market index did not pull the tail, but the phenomenon of sneak attacks on the tail funds of theme stocks such as education, three children and pension is obvious. The game is good for the national two sessions, which is also well understood logically.
At the news conference of the new China office, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the Banking Regulatory Commission, said that last year, financial risks in key areas continued to be controlled, and the macro leverage rate dropped by about 8 percentage points. Asset expansion of the financial system returned to a lower level, and the real estate bubble and financial momentum were reversed. In DAGO’s view, this is a new signal of macroeconomic deleveraging and changes in real estate policy.
Superimposed on the central bank’s recent continuous release of liquidity through hundreds of billions of reverse repos, macroeconomic deleveraging will end under the background of stable growth in the future, which will provide strong support for the index.
Therefore, we should not worry too much. As the old saying goes, control the position in operation, do not catch up with the rise, adjust the low absorption, look at the logic, and then ambush.
