“Our polysilicon 4B project started in 2021 and produced the first batch of polysilicon in early December 2021. The construction and production process were better than expected.” Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) CEO Zhang Longgen said, “the production capacity of the 4B project is climbing, and the output is expected to further increase in February and March. The total output of the 4B project is expected to reach about 9500 tons in the first quarter of 2022.”
In the past two years, with the sharp rise in silicon material prices, China’s leading silicon material enterprises have significantly expanded their production, and many of the new silicon material production capacity will fall in the fourth quarter of 2021. In January this year, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) issued a fixed growth plan, saying that it would invest 8 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 100000 tons of high-purity silicon-based materials. “The project is expected to start in March this year and be completed in the second quarter of 2023.” Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) relevant person said.
In the second half of 2022, the new production capacity of leading silicon materials such as Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL energy and new special energy will be intensively released, and the tight balance between supply and demand of silicon materials is expected to end. In 2023, more new production capacity of silicon materials will be launched, and the price of silicon materials is expected to be reduced. “This year, the profits of leading silicon enterprises will still be strong, but the expectation of silicon price reduction will be gradually clear.” The relevant person in charge of a leading silicon material enterprise told reporters.
silicon material boom: large orders and continuous expansion
In recent years, there is no shortage of orders for silicon material leading enterprises. Just a few days ago, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) signed a big order again.
On February 28, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) announced that the company had recently signed a polysilicon long single crystal sales contract with a customer. According to the contract, from 2022 to 2026, the customer is expected to purchase 30000 tons of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) grade polycrystalline silicon super grade wash free single crystal materials from the company, with an average of 500 tons per month.
Assuming that the price of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) grade polycrystalline silicon in China issued by the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association on February 23 is temporarily calculated according to the average price of 242 yuan / kg, the total sales amount is expected to be about 7.26 billion yuan (including tax). Both parties agree that the actual purchase price shall be negotiated monthly.
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) while signing a big order, he threw out a big hand in expanding production. In January, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) issued a fixed increase plan and proposed to raise no more than 11 billion yuan for the project of 100000 tons of high-purity silicon-based materials per year and supplement working capital Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) said that after the completion of the project, the company will operate 105000 tons of polysilicon production capacity in Shihezi, Xinjiang and 100000 tons of polysilicon production capacity in Baotou, Inner Mongolia.
Poly GCL energy, the leader of granular silicon, also acts frequently. In November 2021, the silane fluidized bed process (FBR) granular silicon of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of poly GCL energy, was officially put into operation, marking that the effective capacity of poly GCL energy granular silicon has increased from 10000 tons to 30000 tons.
It is worth mentioning that the share placement of poly GCL energy was completed in December 2021, with a net income of about HK $4.994 billion, which is mainly used for the development and construction of granular silicon and other projects.
“At present, Leshan 100000 tons and Baotou 300000 tons granular silicon bases are under intense and orderly construction, and production capacity will be released one after another this year.” Poly GCL energy stakeholders told reporters. According to statistics, since last year, poly GCL energy has received several ten billion silicon material purchase orders from Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) and other leading photovoltaic enterprises, with orders in hand exceeding 700000 tons.
Not only has the leading silicon enterprises such as Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , poly GCL energy expanded continuously, but also enterprises in other links of the photovoltaic industry chain have joined the silicon industry. On February 25, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) announced that the company has invested in the construction of photovoltaic monocrystalline silicon business since 2019, with continuous capacity expansion, and the demand for raw materials gradually increases in the production process. In order to ensure the supply of raw materials, the company plans to invest in the production project with an annual output of 150000 tons of high-purity industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon in Guyang County, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, so as to expand new supply channels of silicon materials. The total investment of the project is expected to be 11.8 billion yuan.
silicon material new production capacity will be gradually implemented
The landing progress of new silicon production capacity and the price trend of silicon have become the most concerned topics of the photovoltaic industry chain.
Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the silicon material capacity expanded in the early stage has been released one after another. Among them, the 51000 ton high-purity crystalline silicon project of Yongxiang new energy phase II was officially put into operation in November last year; By the end of 2021, the 50000 ton high-purity crystalline silicon project of Yongxiang Baoshan base in Yunnan was put into operation Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) the polysilicon project with an annual output of 35000 tons was put into operation in December last year.
In January this year, the price of silicon material once fell, but then recovered to rise soon. On February 23, the data released by the silicon industry branch showed that the average transaction price of China’s single crystal re feeding in that week was 244900 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.78% on a weekly basis; The average transaction price of single crystal compact was 242400 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. This is the sixth consecutive week of price increase of silicon materials.
\u3000\u3000 “At the end of 2021, the seasonal fluctuation of the photovoltaic industry chain and the adjustment of downstream inventory made the overall demand of the industry chain slow down temporarily. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers began to reduce the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials and reduce the capacity utilization rate, and the market demand for polysilicon also decreased. Through the analysis of the long-term supply-demand relationship in the market, we believe that the reduction of capacity utilization rate in the silicon wafer link is only temporary, Once the industrial chain is balanced on the new price, the demand will return to normal. ” Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) relevant people believe that.
“In January this year, the demand of photovoltaic industry rebounded strongly, the capacity utilization rate of silicon wafer link returned to normal, and the price of polysilicon began to rise. The company’s inventory level also quickly returned to normal at the end of January.” Zhang Longgen said.
From a longer-term perspective, the price of silicon material is expected to gradually fall with the release of silicon material capacity. It is reported that the total output of Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinte energy and poly GCL energy in 2021 is about 368000 tons, accounting for 75.2% of China’s total output.
“In 2020 and 2021, silicon leaders such as Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinte energy and poly GCL energy will expand rapidly, and most of the new production capacity will be put into operation in 2022 and 2023.” Some people in the photovoltaic industry chain believe that this year and next, the new production capacity of silicon materials will be gradually implemented, and the price of silicon materials is expected to be gradually reduced, which will be conducive to the overall development of the photovoltaic industry chain.
