In November, the total social consumption increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points compared with the previous month. On December 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the social consumption data: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in November 2021 was 4.10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The growth rate basically met the consensus expectation of the wind market (a year-on-year increase of 3.57%), and the growth rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points compared with October. Among them, the retail sales of enterprises (units) above the designated size was 1.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared with October.
From January to November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 39.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, an increase of 18.5 percentage points over the same period last year. (unless otherwise specified below, November refers to November 2021) the year-on-year growth rate of CPI increased by 0.8 percentage points month on month, and the required categories improved significantly month on month. The year-on-year growth rate of national CPI in November 2021 was 2.3%, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in October 2021 was 1.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI increased by 0.8 percentage points month on month. In November, among the relevant categories of the supermarket industry, the retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by 14.8% year-on-year, 4.9 percentage points higher than that in October. Retail sales of beverages increased by 15.5% year-on-year, an increase of 6.7 percentage points over October. Retail sales of daily necessities increased by 8.6% year-on-year, an increase of 5.1 percentage points over October.
In November, among the relevant categories of the department store industry, the retail sales of textile and clothing decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 2.8 percentage points compared with October. The retail sales of cosmetics increased by 8.2% year-on-year, 1.0 percentage points higher than that in October. Textile and garment categories maintain the improvement trend month on month. Under the catalytic factor of cold winter weather in 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of textile and garment categories may become positive in December.
In November, the retail sales of gold and jewelry industry increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 6.9 percentage points compared with October. In November, among the relevant categories of gold and jewelry industry, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 6.9 percentage points compared with October. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 34.1% year-on-year, still significantly higher than other subdivided industries. In view of the continuous upward CPI, we are still relatively optimistic about gold and jewelry consumption with anti inflation properties.
Furniture decoration improved month on month, and the year-on-year growth rate of communication equipment decreased significantly. In November, the retail sales of household appliances in real estate related categories increased by 6.6% year-on-year, down 2.9 percentage points from October. The retail sales of furniture increased by 6.1% year-on-year, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over October.
The retail sales of construction and decoration materials increased by 14.1% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in October.
In November, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 13.3% year-on-year, down 1.0 percentage points from October. The retail sales of communication equipment increased by 0.3% year-on-year, 34.5 percentage points lower than that in October. The retail sales of cultural office supplies increased by 18.1% year-on-year, an increase of 6.6 percentage points over October.
The growth rate of social consumption is basically in line with market expectations, and the required categories have improved significantly month on month. The growth rate of social consumption is basically in line with market expectations, mainly because the double 11 data is relatively flat, which affects the market’s expectations for the growth rate of social consumption in November in advance. From the perspective of sub categories, the required categories benefited from the continuous upward CPI, with an obvious improvement trend month on month. Under inflation expectations, we are still relatively optimistic about the consumption performance of gold with investment hedging attribute.
Risk tip: the negative impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
（ Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) ）
