The central economic work conference held from December 8 to 10 triggered a heated discussion in the whole market, including public funds.
Overall, the main tone of this meeting is stability, and the demand for steady growth is very strong. The financial Associated Press reporter contacted a number of public funds to interpret this. They believe that the central economic work conference set the tone of steady growth, which is expected to repair the previous pessimistic expectations of the market on the economy, and steady growth supports the valuation of a shares.
In terms of equity investment, most public funds believe that the short-term stable growth of this meeting is conducive to the repair of Finance and consumption style, especially the medium-term allocation value of consumption has been improved. However, medium - and long-term investment opportunities are still moderately biased towards high-tech manufacturing and some difficult reverse industries.
steady growth supports the valuation of A-Shares
From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held. The conference held that the judgment of the current economic situation is relatively severe, facing the triple pressure of "demand contraction", "supply shock" and "expectation weakening". Next year, the policy tone should be "stable" and "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and the re mention of "taking economic construction as the center", indicating that steady growth is the main line of the current policy.
Guangfa said that the biggest change in the economic work conference in 2021 is "stability", stability of credit, growth, employment and confidence. The trend of interest rate is expected to be similar to that in 2019, and the whole will fluctuate around a lower central bank. Steady growth supports the valuation of a shares.
The company said that the policy did not follow the old path, strong stimulation, "no speculation in housing and housing" and "curbing invisible debt" are still the bottom line requirements, and take the road of high-quality development on the basis of stability. It is expected that the economy will gradually stabilize between 5.0-5.5 next year, of which the negative drag is mainly real estate, and the positive contribution is infrastructure, consumption and supply. It is expected that the growth rate of social finance in 2022 will be basically the same as that at the end of this year, and the corresponding broad credit pulse will return to a level close to 0. From the trend of broad social financing and broad credit pulse, it is very similar to that in 2019.
"From the perspective of asset prices, the trend of interest rates is expected to be similar to that in 2019, and will fluctuate around a lower center as a whole. Steady growth will support the valuation of a shares. According to the estimation of the macro strategy Department of GF, the potential return of A-share non-financial enterprises will be about 12% by the end of next year." GF pointed out.
The analysis of rosefinch Fund believes that from the perspective of macro liquidity and meso industry prosperity, it will usher in positive results, and the winning rate of equity assets will increase rapidly. After the policy bottom is clear, the market will closely track the credit bottom, and the growth rate of social finance is expected to rebound slightly at the beginning of next year to support the economy.
"The 'real estate does not stir fry' did not appear at the last Politburo meeting. It appeared as scheduled this time, but the overall feeling is that the relaxation of the real estate industry chain is still in the process of increasing." Huang Zhen, executive director of equity investment and research headquarters of ChuangJin Hexin fund, said.
Huang Zhen analyzed and pointed out that the content of the new energy direction was rarely mentioned in the Politburo meeting. This central economic work conference appeared again at a large length, emphasizing that the attention attitude remains unchanged and avoiding sports carbon reduction, which is a direct correction to the crude means in the past. At the same time, he put forward a new term, namely "raw material energy consumption". "For the industry, it seems that coal chemical industry is the most direct benefit direction. If there is an obvious policy loosening in the evaluation link for the chemical enterprises that use nearly 300 million tons of coal every year, the expansion logic will be raised again, and the double-click of valuation and profit will bring greater stock price space."
The Agricultural Bank of China Huili Fund pointed out that the central economic work conference released the policy direction and continued the tone of "stability" of the Political Bureau as a whole, but the intensity was significantly upgraded. This policy environment is favorable, the economic expectation and market risk appetite in 2022 are repaired, the steady growth direction is confirmed, and the index has no systemic risk; In terms of style, it is suggested that high prosperity + balanced value allocation, steady growth and initial value style are dominant.
In this context, the emerging and traditional "policy scissors gap" narrowed, the valuation repair market was more than half, and the improvement of profits determined the relative income sustainability. In terms of investment, it is necessary to judge the industries with dominant performance in 2022.
However, ABC Huili Fund believes that the following risk points also need to be vigilant in the future: first, if the decline of A-share earnings exceeds expectations, there may be a risk of downward revision of performance in some industries. It is necessary to be more cautious about the prospect of industry prosperity and competition pattern in 2022; Second, the macro-control force is less than the market expectation: the current policy is full of efforts to stabilize the growth, and there is no need to worry about the liquidity loosening in the first half of next year. However, the policy framework at this stage is a combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation, which is not a single objective decision-making system. If the economy improves significantly in 2022, there is a certain risk of decline in the phased underpinning policy.
short term stable growth is conducive to finance and consumption
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that the monetary policy will be loose in the next half of the year. At the same time, according to the historical experience before the end of the year, the capital level of the stock market is better under the restless market in spring. In this context, it is expected that the future credit expansion will drive the repair of market valuation. There will be a cross year market as a whole, and the industry probability will rise. In terms of rhythm, the main line of the short-term market is the industry benefiting from steady growth.
"The short-term steady growth is conducive to the repair of Finance and consumption style, especially the medium-term allocation value of consumption has been improved. However, since credit is only stable rather than stimulating, the medium-term investment opportunities will still be moderately biased towards high-tech manufacturing and some difficult reverse industries." GF said.
China Europe Fund also said that the recent market style has continued to switch from growth to value and from overvalued value to undervalued value. The driving factor behind this is mainly that the expectation of economic stabilization has heated up with the convening of the Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference, which is conducive to the performance of industries such as consumption and finance that are more sensitive to the economic cycle.
"At the same time, some institutional investors gradually began to reallocate investment opportunities next year, which increased the impact of new factors such as economic stabilization on the short-term market." The China Europe Fund added.
In the view of rosefinch fund, the A-share structure has not yet got rid of the characteristics of stock game. Pro cyclical and new energy change one after another. On the one hand, the dilemma is reversed, and on the other hand, the boom continues. However, with the gradual clarification of broad credit and the steady improvement of risk preference, it may usher in resonant rise. In the short term, balanced allocation can effectively stabilize fluctuations.
Looking forward to 2022, GF believes that due to the convergence of credit stratification, the performance between market industries and styles is expected to converge. However, as the direction of policy plus leverage remains unchanged, and increased attention has been paid to the risk of traditional energy supply, combined with the future profit forecast, the order of next year is science and technology manufacturing, consumption, finance and cycle.
ABC Huili Fund believes that the external environment becomes macro bottom seeking + credit loosening. Under this combination, A-Shares usually maintain shock, and the poor performance differentiation of growth value will obviously converge. The value style with stable profitability will improve the allocation and cost performance after adjustment, and large and small market capitalization companies may usher in a phased balance of style in 2022.
Therefore, ABC Huili Fund said that the extreme style of the market will turn to convergence, and the strength of the boom is still the core of the market excess return. In the specific direction, we are optimistic about the high-end manufacturing direction represented by new energy and photovoltaic with reasonable valuation, and the investment trend of energy revolution under the trend of carbon neutralization; Increase industries with reasonable valuation and improved prosperity, such as some subdivided industries in consumption, such as intelligent driving.
In conclusion, Cathay Pacific Fund believes that the tone of this meeting is higher than expected, which is good for the stock market and the cross-year market will continue. On the plate, pay attention to the industrial chain of securities companies, green power and real estate. We are optimistic about new energy in the medium term.
In the bond market, China Europe Fund said that the central economic work conference sent a relatively clear signal of stable growth, and specifically mentioned that the policy force should be appropriately advanced to deal with the more prominent economic downward pressure in the first quarter of next year. The credit relief worried by the market in the early stage may continue to ferment next week, but considering that the conference still proposed "no speculation in housing", The scope of credit extension is limited, and the possibility of a sharp rise in the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds is also small. Strategically, it is suggested to maintain a neutral duration and pay attention to the coupon. If the interest rate is significantly adjusted upward, it can be properly involved.
Zou Deli, general manager and fund manager of the fixed income Department of Great Wall Fund, believes that in this policy environment, the monetary policy environment is safe, but the expectations of wide credit and wide finance are further strengthened, the imagination space of the bond market is narrowed, and the possibility of a sharp decline in interest rates is reduced. Further attention should be paid to the post meeting capital situation and MLF hedging on the 15th.
(Financial Associated Press)
