In early Thursday trading, coal stocks continued to be strong. As of press time, Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.Ltd(600792) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) rose by more than 10%, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) rose by more than 7%, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) and others followed suit.
According to the news, on March 2, the general office of the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice to make deployment arrangements for further signing medium and long-term coal contracts and strengthening the supervision of contract performance. The notice emphasizes that all medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022 will be entered and confirmed through the online platform of the national coal trading center, and the integrity performance commitment will be signed online, which will be included in the integrity performance guarantee platform of the “credit China” website for supervision. All contracts signed and entered shall be negotiated and determined as soon as possible in accordance with the reasonable range specified in the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism.
On the same day, the leading group for carbon neutralization of carbon peak held a plenary meeting, which stressed the need to deepen the research on major issues of “double carbon” and form operable policies and measures. We should promote the orderly substitution and transformation of coal, clarify the “big account” of coal supply and demand, reasonably plan the scale and layout of coal power construction, promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal, and give full play to the basic and bottom-up guarantee role of coal in energy.
Ping An Securities believes that from the development history of world coal chemical industry, the development of modern coal chemical industry is mainly closely related to oil price, war, politics and other factors. Under the pressure of tight world oil and gas supply and high price, coal chemical industry will become an important choice to replace oil supply. At present, under the high international oil price, the profitability of coal to fuel has improved significantly, which will usher in development opportunities. Coal to oil and coal quality utilization projects are expected to gradually move from planning to implementation, and equipment suppliers and engineering companies upstream of coal chemical industry may benefit.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) also pointed out that the previous landing of the price range of the long-term association had a certain impact on the market sentiment, but under the continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international coal price remained high, and China’s coal price was still supported. With the end of the Winter Olympic Games, the resumption of work and production in the downstream led to the strengthening of the coal demand side, and it is expected that enterprises with high-quality resources are expected to repair the valuation.
Cinda Securities pointed out that the problem of industry capacity cycle mismatch has not changed. When the demand side continues to increase and the elasticity of the supply side is very small, coal prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is a general trend to go up after maintaining a high level and shaking, and the industry business cycle will continue to improve.
In terms of allocation, the research report said that it is right to allocate the coal sector at this stage, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. Focus on three main lines:
First, under the tight supply and demand of coal in China, low inventory and high prices, and policies to encourage production and ensure supply, favorable listed companies of thermal coal: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) ;
Second, it is suggested to pay attention to the southwest coking coal leader Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which has a large space for endogenous extension, and the pioneer of state-owned enterprise reform Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ;
Third, it is suggested to pay attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal groups.
