"Now more and more enterprises are laying out third-generation semiconductor companies and are nervous about purchasing relevant equipment." Recently, a person from an LED supply chain told the 21st Century Business Herald.
Although the demand for equipment is related to the supply chain shortage environment, the hot market of the third generation semiconductor (also known as wide band gap semiconductor) can be seen. "According to our statistics, the investment scale of the whole wide band gap semiconductor (power and RF) reached 70.9 billion last year, more than double that of the previous year," said Gong ruijiao, an analyst at Jibang consulting compound semiconductor at the recent prospective analysis meeting on new applications of Jibang consulting compound semiconductor
At the same time, the application demand of the third generation semiconductor is also growing. With the entry of silicon carbide (SIC) into the new energy vehicle industry chain and the large-scale application of gallium nitride (GAN) in fast charging, the third generation semiconductor has gradually entered the consumer end and industrial end, emerging in the field of power semiconductor.
It is worth mentioning that carbon neutralization related policies are continuously bringing east wind to the development of third-generation semiconductors. As silicon carbide and gallium nitride help to improve energy efficiency, enterprises' willingness to invest is also increasing. On December 8, the new plan issued by the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments proposed that by 2025, the data center and 5g will basically form a green and intensive integrated operation pattern. According to the calculation of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , if the global data centers using silicon chip devices are upgraded to gallium nitride power chip devices, the energy waste will be reduced by 30% - 40%. Gallium nitride has been used in 5g base stations, and many enterprises are laying out gallium nitride power products in data centers.
At present, the third generation semiconductor is ushering in a golden development period, but at the same time, it should also be noted that the industry is still in the primary stage, the overall scale is small, and many enterprises are pouring in, so we should pay more attention to the actual market demand.
China's exploration of "straight overtaking" will enter the integration period in the next five years
From the perspective of industrial chain, the third generation semiconductors mainly include substrate, epitaxy, design, manufacturing, sealing and testing, application and other links. At present, foreign semiconductor companies still occupy the core position, and in the face of the determined market prospect, Chinese enterprises are also flocking.
Among them, LED industry cluster is an important force. Because gallium nitride and other materials are originally required in lighting, display and other optoelectronic components, enterprises such as Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Hc Semitek Corporation(300323) already have the basis of materials and processes and relevant production experience, which is their advantage. Of course, there are obvious process differences between optoelectronic devices and power IC, IC technology is difficult to upgrade, and there are also challenges in product line expansion.
For the layout of gallium nitride, Wang Jiangbo, vice president of Hc Semitek Corporation(300323) , told the 21st Century Business Herald: "2020 Hc Semitek Corporation(300323) Raise about 300 million yuan to invest in the field of Gan power electronic devices. The application market of electronic power devices is different from the optoelectronic field deeply cultivated by the company, but the material system is similar, and there are some similarities in process preparation. The process section of power electronic devices is more complex, and the requirements for linewidth control and equipment are higher. At present, the 6-inch silicon-based Gan power electronic device process has been connected. It is expected to launch 650V cascode products in 2022 and have the capacity of mass production and OEM in 2023. "
In terms of future product planning, Wang Jiangbo said that Hc Semitek Corporation(300323) is not only for the fast charging field, but also for the layout of data centers, electric vehicles, communications and other fields.
For Hc Semitek Corporation(300323) , cutting into the third generation semiconductor is not only the horizontal expansion of the industry, but also in line with the company's line of exploring high-end; Look at Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , the layout is more perfect. In addition to the gallium nitride production line, the first phase of the silicon carbide whole industry chain production line in Changsha was put into operation this year.
In addition to LEDs, enterprises with power semiconductor experience are also accelerating the layout, such as Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , frequently settling and shipping in the field of gallium nitride power devices, and its Anson semiconductor is also cooperating with automobile enterprises. China's power semiconductor leader China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) has actively arranged the third generation of semiconductors, has mass produced silicon carbide products, and has also developed gallium nitride devices. In the manufacturing field, equipment manufacturers represented by Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) and micro enterprises have also ushered in the incremental market of third-generation semiconductors.
At the same time, many Chinese companies focusing on making third-generation semiconductors are also growing, such as innoseco, which is growing rapidly in the field of gallium nitride power chips; There are many basic semiconductors in the silicon carbide field, tiankeheda, Tianyue advanced, Tongguang crystal, etc., and there are especially many enterprises focusing on the substrate link.
Compared with foreign countries, Chinese enterprises still have a gap. Gong ruijiao told reporters: "the first is the substrate of silicon carbide. At present, it is 6 inches to 8 inches overseas, and China is now 4 inches to 6 inches, which is a big gap; another overseas commercial silicon carbide uses MOS tubes, and China is still using diodes."
Some insiders pointed out that there are almost no vehicle specification level for silicon carbide in more than 100 projects in China, because the industry threshold is very high. Compared with industrial and consumer level, the time for reliability test is completely different, not an order of magnitude, It means: "It only takes dozens of hours for the consumer level, hundreds of hours for the industrial level, and thousands of hours for the vehicle specification level, because the most important thing is safety. It is impossible for a vehicle factory to adopt a vehicle specification level device for three or five years. Although China's automobile factories also cooperate with some enterprises, they should cooperate for a long time. China's automobile factories adopt imported vehicle specification level devices and chips There is a shortage of supply. At present, there is a huge space for the localization of Chinese car manufacturers. We must first achieve the same level as foreign car specification chips and devices, and then develop new innovations on this basis. "
In the recent science and technology game, China has paid unprecedented attention to the semiconductor industry, and the third generation semiconductor is also regarded as a direction of overtaking in the corner, The above insiders said: "In fact, it's easy to fall when running fast in corners. The correct way is to overtake in a straight line. Now China is a guerrilla everywhere. To overtake in a straight line, we need to build an army. Overseas is also such a process. With the support of capital, we can integrate these guerrillas to achieve straight-line overtaking. So in the next five years, I predict it will be an integration process."
silicon carbide integrated gallium nitride start
Although the market share of the third generation semiconductor is still very small compared with the silicon market, and now it is mainly focused on power semiconductor and other fields, there is a huge growth space.
Gong ruijiao said that the power semiconductor industry has ushered in a new high business cycle thanks to the new energy revolution and the outbreak of downstream photovoltaic, energy storage, new energy vehicles and industrial automation, "The market scale of power semiconductors, separation devices and modules will increase from US $20.4 billion in 2020 to US $27.4 billion in 2025, and the market scale of wide band gap semiconductors will increase from less than 5% in 2020 to nearly 17% in 2025."
At present, the industrialization of the third generation semiconductor materials mainly focuses on silicon carbide and gallium nitride. Among them, silicon carbide has been applied for more than ten years, and the industrialization is more mature.
"We predict that the global SiC power market will grow from US $680 million in 2020 to US $3.39 billion in 2025. Among them, new energy vehicles will become the main driving force. SiC will be mainly used in main inverter, OBC and DCDC. In addition, it will be widely used in off-board charging piles and photovoltaic energy storage. SiC will accelerate its penetration in photovoltaic energy storage in the past two years, Of course, it is still far from being comparable to the auto market. " Gong ruijiao analyzed.
In the global silicon carbide market, front-line manufacturers such as Kerui, Italy France semiconductor, Infineon and Roma continue to increase their weight and enter the process of integrated competition in the industrial chain. Gong ruijiao said: "Infineon, Roma and other manufacturers are extending upstream, involving the field of materials, especially the competition for SiC substrates. It is mainly based on the following two reasons: first, the high product added value of SiC substrates; second, the technical process of SiC substrates is very complex, and its crystal growth is very slow, which has also become a key constraint on the production capacity of SiC wafers. In the future, we think that The resource of obtaining a SiC substrate will also become an admission ticket to the power devices of the next generation of electric vehicles. "
Let's look at the gallium nitride market that has sprung up in recent years. Based on the fast charging market, there are not only emerging enterprises such as nano micro semiconductors, but also established companies such as pi. Gong ruijiao said: "Gan's market is still at an early stage. At present, it is growing rapidly in the consumer market. Apple launched a 140 watt Gan fast charge this year. We also believe that Gan really needs to make a transition from consumer electronics, repeatedly verify its reliability, and then establish a production capacity and ecological pattern to facilitate its promotion to industrial and vehicle specification levels in the future. In addition, the whole market scale of Gan will start in 2020 Increased from US $48 million to US $1.32 billion in 2025. In addition to consumer electronics, the products we think it will have great applications are new energy vehicles, telecommunications and data centers. "
In his opinion, with the improvement of integration, gallium nitride still coexists with IDM and vertical division of labor. In IDM, except for a few start-ups such as innoseco, they are mainly traditional large factories; In the field of vertical division of labor, they are basically start-ups and have become the key driving force of the industry.
It is not difficult to see that in the past five years, the scale of the third generation semiconductor will usher in several times of expansion, which is also reflected in the growth of equipment demand. Fang Ziwen, deputy general manager of equipment leader aixtron (aisiqiang), told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "many customers are actively expanding production. On the whole, the third-generation semiconductors and other materials in the market are clearly growing, among which potassium nitride, silicon carbide and indium phosphide are the most obvious."
In addition, Fang Ziwen also said that due to the shortage of global industrial chain, the delivery cycle of relevant equipment has been extended from 6 months to about 8-9 months, but the overall capacity of equipment manufacturers is sufficient.
multiple challenges of cost, yield and demand
Silicon carbide has been applied and developed for more than ten years, which is more mature than gallium nitride. In the competition with silicon, due to the characteristics of the device itself, the process of silicon carbide substitution is more convenient, and gallium nitride is more difficult. However, in the past two or three years, gallium nitride has been verified in the fast charging circuit. After the rise of the consumer market of 650 V fast charging, the industry quickly began to scale, and the scale is needed to carry out the positive cycle regardless of the increase of yield or the decrease of cost.
As the silicon process has been very mature and has advantages in the cost of a single chip, it is understood that a single device of silicon carbide or gallium nitride can be up to four times that of silicon. "For the automobile, the single cost may be about twice as high, but (silicon carbide) reduces the systematic cost. For example, when applied to the automobile, it can reduce the volume of automobile related components, improve efficiency, and then reduce the battery cost. Therefore, from the perspective of the whole vehicle system, the cost is still reduced." Gong ruijiao gave an example to reporters.
However, for the third generation semiconductor enterprises, they still face the challenge of cost, and all links of the industrial chain are also trying to reduce cost, increase efficiency and improve yield. Many practitioners told the 21st Century Business Herald that with the promotion of mass production, the cost will decline rapidly.
Among them, equipment manufacturers play an important role. "The key to the development of the industry is to save costs. Aisqiang has a cost advantage of 10% to 15% compared with its competitors today. We expect to continue to reduce costs by about 25% in 2023," Fang Ziwen said, "In the field of gallium nitride, our production cost will continue to decline by about 20% to 30% by 2023, and our production capacity will increase by about 20% to 30%
This is closely related to the automatic production line. As we all know, the degree of automation of the silicon chip production line has been very high, the human factors on the production line have been reduced, and it can operate all year round. The third generation semiconductor will also experience this evolutionary process. Fang Ziwen recalled: "Eight years ago, some customers said that the gallium nitride material was very good, but it could not be used, because the production line was still in the practice of manual workshop at that time. Therefore, they put forward the requirements for equipment automation, so as to compete with the existing devices in the process flow. Therefore, we carried out the research and development of gallium nitride equipment very early, and then the market broke out quickly Rise. "
After the introduction of fully automated production mode, the third generation semiconductor can enter the market at a lower cost. In Fang Ziwen's view, the third generation semiconductor SiC and Gan are a very large market. They compete directly with silicon, which requires the cooperation of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Good cooperation is required from performance to mass production and end customer verification, so that SiC and Gan can finally go, Enter the process of industrialization.
In the view of many people in the industry, the third generation semiconductor does not have much bottleneck at the technical level. Laboratories outside China can tackle key technical problems, but the most key is mass production, which involves the production experience of the team, talent composition and other factors.
In addition to production, third-generation semiconductor enterprises are also facing the test of profitability and demand, A person from the industrial chain told reporters: "The power device business is difficult to do, and sometimes even has to be pasted upside down. For example, in many business contracts, if there is a problem of product compensation, the power device enterprises also need to compensate the customers for the lost profits, rather than the cost of the device itself. Therefore, the front-end bears a greater risk. Some investment institutions begin to give priority to packaging enterprises to reduce the risk."
Therefore, a number of senior semiconductors also told reporters that for new enterprises, they must keep close to the market demand, not just investment driven development, but also need to clarify the access to the sea and carry out differentiated industrial competition.
"Double carbon" continues to "ignite" giants have added weight to the third-generation semiconductor, which is afraid of excess risk in the short term
(21st Century Business Herald)
