Today (March 3), after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, they collectively fell back rapidly. The Shanghai index barely maintained the red market, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index further weakened, showing a pulsed downward pattern.
From the disk point of view, the market of light index and heavy individual stocks continues, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors are different, and the local profit-making effect still exists. China Russia trade, oil and gas and other sectors took the lead, while medicine, real estate, coal, tourism and hotels also performed prominently. In the coal sector, Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.Ltd(600792) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , etc. rose one after another; In the real estate development sector, Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) soared the limit. As of press time, the stock has achieved three consecutive boards, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) and other outstanding performances.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] coal
Capital Securities pointed out that according to the forecast of China electricity Union, the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 5% – 6% year-on-year in 2022. We believe that on the basis of this forecast, the total coal consumption will still maintain a positive growth rate in 2022. Superimposed on the steady growth this year, the infrastructure and manufacturing industry will continue to develop, the power demand will continue to grow, the coal side capacity limit cannot be reduced in the short term, and the price has risen rapidly since 2021, The upward movement of the price center has basically become a consensus. The fixed asset investment of coal caused by de capacity and “double carbon” has been at a low level for a long time. At present, the release elasticity on the supply side is still insufficient, and the future constraints on the supply side will continue. The reasonable profitability of coal enterprises plays an important role in the replacement and stability of new and old energy in the future, We expect that the coal price in 2022 may be expected to maintain the annual average level in 2021, and the high performance level is expected to be maintained this year. At present, the low PE valuation level of high-quality coal listed companies is generally 8-9 times. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the performance of coal stocks in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation and the valuation will have a certain repair space. The double factors of performance and valuation repair are superimposed, Configuration advantages are obvious.
Cinda Securities believes that the current market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand, the production capacity cycle is down, the supply elasticity converges, the prosperity and sustainability of the industry are expected to exceed expectations, and the sector valuation is far from reflected. Undervaluation, high performance certainty and considerable dividend income make the coal sector “both offensive and defensive”, and the systematic revaluation of the market has just begun to maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the steady growth at the policy level and the relaxation of coal consumption indicators are conducive to the expansion of demand; The policy recognizes medium and high coal prices and improves the expectation of medium and long-term profit stability of the industry. At the market level, the demand expands under the background of steady growth, while the guaranteed supply capacity is expected to withdraw after the peak season, the industry margin is tightened, and the coal price is expected to run strongly. Overseas coal prices have soared and imported coal prices have been seriously inverted. Stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 5-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectation is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
[Theme 2] real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that from the perspective of the industry, the recent policy warm wind is blowing frequently, and we think we should strengthen our confidence at this time: ① “stability” is the core demand, which should not be expected to be in place in one step, but the direction is more important. ② The short-term problem is a fact, but it has been digested by the market, not to mention the dawn. ③ The “golden combination” of improved sales boom and rational land market is expected to appear, the profit level of the industry will improve, high-quality real estate enterprises can also return to growth, and alpha resonates with beta.
From the perspective of individual stocks, in the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit; In addition, Wuguan leading companies are expected to benefit from the lifting of real estate repression in the future, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
For the real estate industry, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period” was maintained. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Capital securities mentioned that at present, the valuation center of the real estate industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. The strength management after the direction is confirmed will still have a strong correlation with the upward space of the sector. Under the background of steady growth, we think the strength of policy release will be strengthened step by step, It is not ruled out that non hot cities break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors to be paid attention to in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . China’s overseas development.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the main line of “stable growth”, the expectation of policy game is increasing, and the market deduction path is gradually clear, transitioning from state-owned enterprise housing to private enterprise housing and property management companies.
At present, the industry policy supports the gradual transition from the supply side to the demand side. The relaxation of the management of guaranteed housing loans and the regulation and adjustment of pre-sale funds are the beginning of “stable growth”. Later, we will pay attention to the implementation of policies before and after the two sessions, the first batch of centralized land supply and the acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises.
[Theme 3] port shipping
China Post Securities said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a boosting impact on the shipping sector, focusing on the oil transportation sector. In view of the high dependence of Europe on Russian energy, at present, about 2.3 million barrels / day of Russian crude oil flows westward to the export terminals of the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea through the pipeline network. The deterioration of the conflict will increase the introduction of oil from non Russian regions in Europe and increase the transportation cost.
In addition, Dongzheng futures pointed out that the port is the supply bottleneck, behind which is the reflection of the supply chain problems in the United States. The reasons for the formation of port problems include: the surge in demand, the shortage of labor and the shortage of transportation equipment. The problems of labor shortage and insufficient equipment are difficult to improve in the short term. The recovery of supply chain and the improvement of transportation capacity can only wait for the demand to fall. The extent and speed of demand decline determine the improvement rhythm of supply. The supply recovery process will be very slow. It is estimated that it will take more than half a year to solve the port problem.
In addition, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the port rate has risen slightly in 2021 and is expected to continue to rise in 2022. The demand for import and export of goods rebounded, driving the rise of port rates. In the first half of 2021, the revenue of single container (ton) of SAIC Group and Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) rebounded. At the end of 2021, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Shanghai port and Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that the container rate would be increased in 2022. Considering the low valuation of some port companies, they already have investment value. Recommend Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) with high dividend and Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) with substantial profit growth.
[Topic 4] covid-19 treatment
Guosheng Securities pointed out that medicine has entered the layout range, which can be moderately optimistic, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been obviously solved, and the conditions for bottom rebound have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not yet found a clear main line, and the oversold rebound may become the strongest direction in stages.
The agency further mentioned that our idea is to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they fall to the second-order guide of irrational valuation range. Here you can see more pharmaceutical science and technology innovation with obvious overall decline and individual stocks with high identification & clean chip structure. 2) Excavate stocks with high growth or may exceed expectations in the first quarter, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, adult class II vaccine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc.
AVIC Securities said that according to the announcement and annual report previously released by Pfizer, the price of a single course of paxlovid is $529. It is expected that the revenue of covid-19 oral medicine will reach $22 billion in covid-19 treatment products in 2022. Covid-19 oral medicine, as the last puzzle in the current covid-19 treatment industry chain, has broad market prospects. In addition to the innovation expectations given by enterprises directly involved in covid-19 oral drug research and development, China’s CXO industrial chain has a complete integrated chain with obvious cost and efficiency advantages. The order announcements issued by some enterprises also confirm our previous view. In the short term, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the R & D of covid-19 small molecule drugs, and pay attention to the listed companies deeply involved in the supply chain of covid-19 preventive drugs, including Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) etc.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous implementation of the centralized procurement policy this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
[theme five ] oil and gas
Minsheng Securities said that geopolitics, the weakening influence of Omicron and the decline of crude oil inventories are the short-term catalytic factors leading to the recent rise in crude oil prices. Among them, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects the market’s expectation of the reduction of global crude oil supply: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a long history. Recently, Russia and Ukraine have once again entered the tension on the edge of conflict. Due to Russia’s important position in the world crude oil market (according to OPEC world, Russia’s daily average crude oil production in 2021q4 is 10.8 million barrels / day, accounting for more than 10% of the world’s total output), the market is worried that Russia will be subject to economic export sanctions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will affect the supply of crude oil market. Among them, Russian crude oil exports account for about 42% – 45% of the output. If Russian crude oil exports are sanctioned, the impact on the supply of global crude oil market will be greater than 5%.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the pattern of tight supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil continues, the geopolitical situation is changeable, and the short-term geopolitical risk premium of crude oil increases. Over the years, affected by the epidemic and low oil price cycle, the global oil and gas exploration expenditure has remained low. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term prosperity of the oil and gas industry. In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the short-term oil price still needs to pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and other geopolitical factors. If the export of Russian crude oil and natural gas is sanctioned and Iranian crude oil has not returned to the market, the global oil and gas may fall into a supply crisis, and the possibility of sharp rise in oil and gas prices cannot be ruled out.
