The world’s first “plastic restriction order” is coming, and the policy gives birth to the opportunity of substitutes. Is the tens of billions market about to break out?

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Danhua Chemical Technology Co.Ltd(600844) , Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) pulled up strongly in the morning and closed the board successfully.

Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) intraday rise, once up 12%.

the world’s first “plastic restriction order” is coming

According to the news, the resumed fifth session of the United Nations Environment assembly will be held from February 28 to March 2, 2022. One of the most important topics of this meeting is governance of global plastic pollution . Governments around the world will discuss and formulate the first global treaty to deal with plastic pollution .

At present, environmental protection has become the main theme of global development, and environmental protection policies are emerging one after another outside China. On January 19, 2020, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment announced the “opinions on Further Strengthening the control of plastic pollution”: “by the end of 2020, China will take the lead in banning and restricting the production, sales and use of some plastic products in some regions and fields.”

On February 23 this year, China’s Ministry of ecology and environment once again stressed that the Ministry of ecology and environment, based on its own responsibilities, actively strengthened the treatment of plastic pollution. In the next step, we will implement the legal requirements of plastic pollution control and promote the implementation of the opinions on further strengthening plastic pollution control and the action plan for plastic pollution control in the 14th five year plan, so as to control plastic pollution accurately, scientifically and according to law. At the same time, we will further strengthen cooperation with the international community and actively contribute China’s experience and wisdom to the international community.

degradable plastics occupy the upper air outlet again

Under the theme of environmental protection, degradable plastics, as a key material to replace existing plastics, has undoubtedly become the direction of public speculation again.

Degradable plastics are actually an ideal substitute for solving white pollution. Biodegradation is the main type of degradable plastics. Generally, what we hear about degradable plastics refers to biodegradable plastics, which has attracted much attention because it can fundamentally solve the problem of white pollution.

what is a degradable plastic

Degradable plastics refer to a kind of plastics whose properties can meet the use requirements and remain unchanged during the storage period, but can degrade into environmentally harmless substances under natural environmental conditions after use. Therefore, it is also known as environmentally degradable plastics.

There are many kinds of new plastics: photodegradable plastics, biodegradable plastics, light / oxidation / biological comprehensive degradable plastics, carbon dioxide based biodegradable plastics and thermoplastic starch resin degradable plastics.

There are two main uses of Degradable Plastics:

One is the field where ordinary plastics were originally used. In these fields, plastic products after use or consumption are difficult to collect and will cause harm to the environment, such as agricultural plastic film and disposable plastic packaging;

The second is the field of replacing other materials with plastics. The use of degradable plastics in these fields can bring convenience, such as ball nails for golf courses and seedling fixing materials for tropical rain forest afforestation.

driven by environmental protection policies, the market for degradable plastics is in short supply

Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) believes that degradable plastics have a broad replacement space in the Chinese market , and PBAT / PLA is the main variety. According to the calculation, taking the data of 2018 as an example, the consumption of disposable plastics in China’s lunch boxes, plastic bags and other fields reaches 5.945 million tons. Assuming that the substitution ratio of 30%, the consumption of degradable plastics is close to 1.8 million tons. From the perspective of technical maturity and cost performance, PBAT / PLA are the main raw materials of soft (mostly used for plastic bags) / hard (mostly used for lunch boxes, etc.) products, and starch based plastics are mainly used for compounding. Compared with ordinary PE / PP / PS plastics, the price of PBAT / PLA is about 2-4 times that of ordinary PE / PP / PS plastics, so the demand mainly depends on policy promotion.

Driven by the plastic ban policy, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) predicts that by 2025, the total market demand of degradable plastics in China will reach 4152300 tons which is 9.23 times that in 2018. Calculated at a unit price of 20000 yuan / ton, the market space of will be 83 billion .

Huachuang Securities pointed out that degradable plastics are emerging new plastic materials. Molecular screening and mass production technology are in a period of rapid iteration. At present, the more mature varieties are PLA, PBAT and starch based plastics. At present, the cost of degradable plastics is still several times that of traditional plastics, but the demand is accelerated driven by the environmental protection policies of various countries, the market is in short supply, and the price remains more than twice that of traditional plastics . The current comprehensive capacity scale, construction in progress launch time, business collaboration and the company’s technology accumulation, etc. pay attention to Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) , Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) and Shandong Ruifeng Chemical Co.Ltd(300243) .

degradable plastic how long can this fire burn

In fact, degradable plastics have been mentioned in the renewable energy law (Draft) and the law on the prevention and control of environmental pollution by solid waste (Revised) in 2004, and the utilization of renewable biomass energy and the promotion and application of degradable plastics are encouraged. In the following years, relevant policies have been continuously promoted and implemented.

From this point of view, state’s determination to completely “ban plastics” is quite clear , at present, non degradable plastics are facing an unprecedented crisis, and for degradable plastics that claim to be “environmental friendly” in the market, it is a good time to “take off in the wind”, and the voice of pursuit in the market continues, the degradable plastics with high hopes undoubtedly ushered in the golden window period of rapid development

however, although degradable plastics have their own “environmental halo”, they have always been controversial in the industry degradable plastics have become a “new favorite” to replace ordinary plastics. However, if degradable plastics are to develop for a long time, how to deal with the problem of scientific disposal of waste generated after the large-scale use of degradable plastics will be the key point restricting the healthy and sustainable development of degradable plastics. Therefore, the promotion of degradable plastics has a long way to go.

Today, the stock prices of degradable plastic concept tickets and paper enterprises in related fields have increased significantly. But how long can this fire last? Will it become a one-day tour? These need to be studied by the market. Investors should still remain calm and explore potential opportunities from the fundamentals of the concept company.

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