The two sessions in 2022 will begin soon. As a major meeting attracting national attention, the topics of the two sessions will undoubtedly have a significant impact on China’s development in many fields.
From the perspective of market performance, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that in the past decade, most of the market indexes showed an upward trend in the week before the two sessions, and the growth style was relatively flexible, mainly because the growth style was relatively sensitive to the catalysis of policy expectations during the performance vacuum period; During the meeting, the market performance was relatively volatile, and after the end, the fundamental impact began to dominate.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) it is estimated that science and technology self-reliance and self-improvement will rise to the main tone of the strategic support position of national development, and scientific and technological innovation, especially digital economy, is expected to become the highlight of the work of the two sessions in 2022
So, for the science and technology industry, what opportunities are expected to be brought by the “time window of the two sessions”? Which main lines deserve attention? The science and Innovation Board daily combed the research and judgment of many institutions, as well as the suggestions of many deputies to the National People’s Congress and CPPCC members, and sorted out the forward-looking wind vane of the two sessions of science and innovation.
overall, digital economy, “double carbon” and medical and health care are the three most favored directions of institutions. It is worth noting that among them, the number of institutions optimistic about the digital economy is the largest
▍ Digital Economy: provincial and municipal work reports appear frequently, and many institutions are intensively optimistic
In 2017, “digital economy” appeared for the first time in the government work report of the two sessions, and then it was mentioned many times from 2019 to 2021.
In the local two sessions in 2022, more than 25 provinces and cities have explicitly mentioned promoting the development of digital economy. Five provinces and regions have finalized the quantitative indicators for the development of digital economy this year, focusing on 5g, industrial Internet platform, industrial digital transformation and other directions.
Shen Zhipeng, member of the CPPCC National Committee and executive partner of “Nanshan manufacturing”, also proposed to promote the transformation of China’s manufacturing industry.
At the same time, a number of institutions are optimistic about the dividend increase of the two sessions on the digital economy industry this year.
▍ “double carbon”: the focus of new energy vehicles extends upstream and downstream, and the opportunity of energy structure transformation is favored
In recent years, the government work reports of the two sessions have repeatedly involved “energy conservation and emission reduction”, “optimizing the energy structure”, “developing renewable energy”, “promoting new energy vehicles” and so on. The secondary market has responded positively to this. According to the statistics of galaxy securities, in the trend of new energy index of power equipment in recent 15 years, the probability of the index rising from the Spring Festival to the closing of the two sessions is 60%; Within one month after the closing of the two sessions, the rising probability is 46.7%.
Analysts expect that in the current two sessions, the favorable policies related to ensuring stable economic growth and new energy are expected to release more positive signals than expected to the market.
\u3000\u3000 ◆ 1. New energy vehicle industry chain
The rural activities of new energy vehicles and various consumer goods are the focus of consumption stimulation in all provinces and cities. In addition to the sales of new energy vehicles themselves, many local governments also mentioned several industrial chain details, including charging pile construction, highway coverage, industrial scale objectives, etc
At the same time, many deputies to the National People’s Congress and members of the Chinese people’s Political Consultative Conference made suggestions around the extension of the industrial chain. For example, Zeng Yuqun, member of the National Committee of the Chinese people’s Political Consultative Conference and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) chairman of the board of directors, mainly focused on upstream resources and lithium batteries; Li Shufu, deputy to the National People’s Congress and chairman of Geely Holding Group, focused on power replacement and energy supplement and methanol vehicles.
\u3000\u3000 ◆ 2. Energy structure transformation
With the increase of the proportion of electricity in the energy consumption system and the large-scale access of new energy power generation projects, a number of policies have been issued to promote industrial development. In the context of “double carbon”, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Cinda securities and Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) analysts are optimistic about the further promotion of the two sessions to China’s energy transformation.
In addition, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Zeng Yuqun also proposed to establish a capacity electricity price policy using the characteristics of new energy storage with reference to pumped storage, so as to form a stable and reasonable income space.
▍ medical and health: Sequoia China Shen NANPENG focuses on innovation and R & D. analysts are optimistic about long-term space
Looking back on the government work report and policy proposal of the national two sessions from 2019 to 2021, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that measures to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical field are not uncommon, such as comprehensively deepening medical reform, strengthening the construction of public health system, “one old and one young” disease prevention and promoting the development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the capital market has also responded.
Two of the five proposals made by Shen NANPENG, member of the CPPCC National Committee and founding and executive partner of Sequoia China, are related to medicine. First, Shen NANPENG proposed to improve the ability of drug innovation based on clinical value, and drug R & D should transform from following innovation to source innovation. Second, add the research and application of brain science to improve the management of brain health in the elderly.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that this year, we can still focus on the construction of medical and health system, the prevention and treatment of major diseases of “one old and one young” and the development of traditional Chinese medicine.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that medicine is one of the highlights of this year’s local two sessions. The pharmaceutical sector has the attribute of countercyclical regulation, with limited short-term impact on the pharmaceutical sector, long-term benefits and prominent investment value. It is recommended to pay attention to the pharmaceutical and medical consumables industry.
▍ what other aspects deserve attention
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) , Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) combed this year’s local government work report and added that in addition to the above-mentioned digital economy, scientific and technological innovation, strong chain supplement, e-commerce and smart appliances were also emphasized
In terms of scientific and technological innovation, the top three priorities of 2022 in 17 provinces and cities have been included in scientific and technological innovation. It mainly focuses on building scientific and technological innovation platform, cultivating enterprise innovation ability, cultivating innovative talents, etc.
In terms of strengthening and supplementing the chain, 16 provinces and cities have clearly proposed strengthening and supplementing the chain and extending the chain. Among them, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Guangdong put strengthening and supplementing the chain in the three key tasks before 2022, highlighting the construction of key industrial chains and the cultivation of “chain owners”.
In addition, e-commerce, smart appliances and green building materials are mentioned in the work reports of more than 10 provinces such as Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan
prospect of the two sessions
Prospect of the two sessions: monetary policy will tilt towards steady growth this year, and structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a leading role
Prospect of the two sessions: the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction this year may be more than 1.5 trillion, and the combined measures may vary from place to place
Prospect of the two sessions: the GDP growth target may be set at 5-5.5%, and stabilizing employment is the top priority
Prospect of the two sessions: the deficit ratio may fall to about 2.8% in 2022, and the new special debt is expected to be the same as last year
