Today (March 3), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher across the board. Subsequently, the stock index performance was differentiated, and the coal, oil and other sectors continued to perform, forming a certain support for the stock index. However, the performance of growth stocks was sluggish, and the decline of many stocks dragged down the gem.
In this regard, Wanhe Securities believes that the current market uncertainty is increasing, and overseas risks include geographical situation, global supply chain, global inflation and so on; There are risks such as epidemic situation, sluggish domestic demand and increasing downward pressure on the economy, both inside and outside are facing great uncertainty.
At the same time, the agency further pointed out that the current market will still focus on finding the bottom, and the approaching of important meetings has also boosted the wait-and-see mood of the market. This year, China focuses on steady growth. Facing the new crisis in the global supply chain, China faces more severe challenges in the fields of energy, resources, equipment and so on, At this time, we need to wait for relevant policies to make further arrangements around steady growth and clarify the direction of steady growth this year. In terms of industry, we can pay attention to the industrial chain related to consumption and infrastructure.
sector:
I. hydrogen energy
Dongguan securities mentioned that at present, China's annual output of hydrogen ranks first in the world, with an annual output of 25 million tons. At the same time, China is also the world's largest producer and marketer of hydrogen storage materials China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and national energy group are the two enterprises with the largest hydrogen production in China, accounting for 30% of the market share. There are many other hydrogen production enterprises, the scale of hydrogen production is relatively small, and the market competition pattern is relatively scattered. As other large central enterprises enter the hydrogen energy industry, the market concentration of the hydrogen energy industry is expected to increase in the future. At present, more than one-third of central enterprises are in the layout of the whole industrial chain, including hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogenation, hydrogen use and so on. There is a huge space for the development of hydrogen energy industry.
At present, hydrogen production is still dominated by fossil fuels, with fuel cells as the key application direction. At present, the hydrogen is mainly gray hydrogen, accounting for about 95% of the global hydrogen production. Coal to olefin will still be the main way of hydrogen production in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At present, the cost of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is high, and the future development space of proton exchange membrane electrolyzed water (PEM) is broad. At present, the hydrogen storage technology is mainly high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage. The localization of hydrogen storage bottles will be accelerated, and the type IV bottles will be further widely used in the future. Hydrogen fuel cell is the most widely used fifth generation fuel cell at present. As its core component, membrane electrode will greatly open the growth space of the industry with the growth of the demand for hydrogen fuel cell.
The agency further analyzed that it was ready to go straight to the "hydrogen" cloud. The national "14th five year plan" mentioned that to accelerate the development of hydrogen energy industry, with the continuous promotion of policies, the hydrogen energy industry chain will be further improved, and the growth space in key areas of the hydrogen energy industry chain will be continuously widened. Recommended Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) , Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) .
In addition, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that hydrogen is an ideal clean energy under China's carbon neutralization goal. In recent years, the government's supporting policies are frequent, and the industrial economy market is broad. The development of China's hydrogen energy industry will usher in an accelerated period.
Hydrogen industrialization involves many core links. ① Hydrogen production: hydrogen production from fossil energy is the mainstream route in China. In the long run, hydrogen production from electrolytic water, which continues to reduce costs, is the general trend of the industry. As the core equipment for hydrogen production from electrolytic water, alkaline electrolyzer has basically realized localization; ② Hydrogen storage: on-board hydrogen storage is the largest segment of hydrogen storage market. At present, China's on-board hydrogen storage is still dominated by 35MPa III bottles. 70MPa II and IV hydrogen storage bottles are technically difficult and are still dominated by overseas enterprises; ③ Hydrogenation: in the cost composition of the hydrogenation station, the equipment investment accounts for up to 45%. The core equipment hydrogen compressor and hydrogenation machine are still highly dependent on imports, and equipment localization is the most important means to reduce costs.
The fuel cell market is rapidly opening up, and local equipment companies are accelerating their layout. Fuel cell vehicles are in a period of rapid introduction. GGII predicts that the market scale of fuel cell industry will reach 23 billion yuan in 2023 and 70 billion yuan in 2025. At present, as the industry is still in the early stage of industrialization, the head shuffling phenomenon occurs frequently. With the technical route & determining the market demand and forming the scale effect, we are optimistic about the local enterprises with the first mover advantage to stand out. In terms of investment suggestions, focus on Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co.Ltd(002158) , etc.
II. Coal
Capital Securities pointed out that according to the forecast of China electricity Union, the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 5% - 6% year-on-year in 2022. We believe that on the basis of this forecast, the total coal consumption will still maintain a positive growth rate in 2022. Superimposed on the steady growth this year, the infrastructure and manufacturing industry will continue to develop, the power demand will continue to grow, the coal side capacity limit cannot be reduced in the short term, and the price has risen rapidly since 2021, The upward movement of the price center has basically become a consensus. The fixed asset investment of coal caused by de capacity and "double carbon" has been at a low level for a long time. At present, the release elasticity on the supply side is still insufficient, and the future constraints on the supply side will continue. The reasonable profitability of coal enterprises plays an important role in the replacement and stability of new and old energy in the future, We expect that the coal price in 2022 may be expected to maintain the annual average level in 2021, and the high performance level is expected to be maintained this year. At present, the low PE valuation level of high-quality coal listed companies is generally 8-9 times. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the performance of coal stocks in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation and the valuation will have a certain repair space. The double factors of performance and valuation repair are superimposed, Configuration advantages are obvious.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the steady growth at the policy level and the relaxation of coal consumption indicators are conducive to the expansion of demand; The policy recognizes medium and high coal prices and improves the expectation of medium and long-term profit stability of the industry. At the market level, the demand expands under the background of steady growth, while the guaranteed supply capacity is expected to withdraw after the peak season, the industry margin is tightened, and the coal price is expected to run strongly. Overseas coal prices have soared and imported coal prices have been seriously inverted. Stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 5-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectation is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
Cinda Securities believes that the current market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand, the production capacity cycle is down, the supply elasticity converges, the prosperity and sustainability of the industry are expected to exceed expectations, and the sector valuation is far from reflected. Undervaluation, high performance certainty and considerable dividend income make the coal sector "both offensive and defensive", and the systematic revaluation of the market has just begun to maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
one drawing summary:
