Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : optimistic about the main logic exposure of the aeroengine industry pay attention to the main targets of each link under the long-term high scenery
The main logic of optimistic about the aeroengine industry: (1) localization substitution: previously, China’s military aircraft and initial products of civil aircraft were matched with foreign engine products; With the development and maturity of engine technology, at present, China has ws10 series and other engines to replace imported products to assemble military aircraft, and domestic civil aircraft engines cj1000 and other models are expected to realize domestic matching on C919 and other passenger aircraft models in the future. (2) Performance improvement: limited by the engine performance, there is still room for further improvement in the performance of some aircraft. New / next-generation engine products are towed for replacement. (3) Increase in consumption rate: at present, the army emphasizes practical training exercises. The demand for engine consumption rate, maintenance support and replacement has increased the demand for engine quantity, life cycle and reliability.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, China has formed a complete industrial chain of aeroengines. Under the long-term high-profile atmosphere, it pays attention to the main targets of each link: the upstream and downstream of aeroengines are raw materials, parts, components, subsystems, complete machines and other links, involving titanium alloys, superalloys, composites, forging, casting, machining, testing, final assembly and other businesses, With the vigorous development of the national aero-engine industry, China’s industrial chain has tended to be complete. Under the long-term high prospect, major companies in all links of the industrial chain are expected to usher in high-speed growth of revenue and profit. Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to the main targets in the industrial chain such as Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) . []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : optimistic about the counter cyclical attribute of military industry focus on the investment opportunities of mixed reform of state-owned enterprises
The military industry has strong countercyclical attribute and is over equipped with military industry. The macro-economy is obviously disturbed by the epidemic, but the arms sales of the top 100 military industries in the world are still growing positively, indicating that the military industry has a strong countercyclical attribute all over the world. The central economic work conference held on December 8-10 mentioned that China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. Under the impact of the epidemic situation in the 21st century, the changes in the past century have accelerated, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain. China’s economy is resilient, and its long-term fundamentals will not change. The military industry is less affected by the macro-economy and has the certainty of long-term growth. The super military industry is at the right time.
In addition, at present, China’s military industry is dominated by large state-owned military industrial groups, which has the disadvantages of low asset securitization rate and imperfect incentive mechanism. In order to improve the performance and production capacity of China’s military products, we can use the capital market to improve the financing capacity of military enterprises and improve the stock incentive mechanism, so as to enhance the staff vitality, scientific research strength and batch production capacity of military enterprises. At the same time, the central economic work conference on December 8-10 emphasized the completion of the three-year action task of state-owned enterprise reform. 2022 is the last year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, and the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to speed up. It is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities of mixed reform of military industry and state-owned enterprises. []
Dongguan Securities: optimistic about the spring market of military industry it is recommended to pay attention to the progress of mixed reform of state-owned enterprises
From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference proposed to complete the three-year action task of state-owned enterprise reform in 2022. 2022 is the last year of the three-year task. The state-owned enterprise reform is expected to accelerate, and we are optimistic about the changes of state-owned enterprise mixed reform enterprises in 2022. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving our military strength can we better deal with the increasingly complex world situation; The new variant virus has increased global uncertainty. As a key target of reverse cycle, the military industry sector is less affected by global economic events, and the industry as a whole is better and more certain. Optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the “14th five year plan” period, as well as the expectation of capital return under the acceleration of domestic substitution, optimistic about the aviation industry chain; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform. Target suggestions and concerns: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , etc. []
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : the economy is expected to accelerate in 2022 the acceleration of aerospace and aerospace development deserves special attention
In 2021, the military industry is booming in an all-round way, with high growth in aviation and informatization. It is expected that the boom will accelerate in 2022, and the acceleration in the field of aerospace and aerospace development deserves special attention. As the first year of the great cycle of national defense construction from “improving quality” to “increasing quantity”, we can see the overall prosperity of the industrial chain and the increase of revenue and profit growth of various sectors from the financial perspective. From the perspective of forward-looking indicators, the large amount of advance receipts received from the downstream general assembly also shows that the demand for weapons and equipment in the future of the 14th five year plan is still large, and the military industry is highly sustainable. From the downstream sector, the growth of aviation and information technology sector is very bright in the first three quarters of 2021: aviation is in the capacity-building period of equipment upgrading and upgrading, and will continue to grow at a high rate in the future, especially the aviation engine sub sector is expected to show a trend of strengthening prosperity; In the informatization sector, due to the improvement of equipment informatization rate + domestic substitution, the demand is still very strong in the future; Although the growth in the aerospace field is good, it may not be explosive because the order schedule is less than expected. With the gradual release of orders, the growth rate of the aerospace sector is expected to increase significantly in 2022.
When expanding production in the middle reaches of the industrial chain, the release of production capacity will drive the further growth of the whole industrial chain. From the comparison of industrial chain links, we find that due to (1) the short product cycle (2) the gradual release of capacity expansion from 2020 and the scale effect brought by the improvement of capacity utilization, the revenue and profit growth of upstream companies are significantly faster than that of midstream and downstream companies. At the same time, we have also observed that the expansion of production in the middle reaches of the industrial chain is under way. It is expected that the production capacity in the middle reaches of the industrial chain will be gradually released in 2022, so as to stimulate the upstream demand and promote the delivery of downstream products, and drive the further growth of the whole industrial chain. In terms of industrial chain selection, we believe that the upstream will still maintain rapid growth, and the middle and downstream enterprises are expected to usher in the upward movement of the profit growth center driven by the reform of state-owned enterprises. In addition, we will continue to pay attention to the progress of the reform of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and believe that the implementation of these reform measures will bring new vitality and valuation flexibility to the military industry sector dominated by central enterprises. []
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) : focus on high-speed growth segments such as air launch and missile industry chain
Investment in the defense and military industry needs to focus on high-speed growth segments such as aviation development and missile industry chain. For the field of Aviation Development: thanks to the increase in the number of military aircraft, domestic engine substitution and dual engine mode in the future, the market scale of military aircraft whole machine castings and engine castings is expected to exceed 100 billion. Compared with the late start of China’s aviation construction, the potential increment in the aviation field is large, and the performance of processing units such as castings, structural parts and their upstream material companies in the aviation field in the future can be expected to grow.
For the missile field: missiles are important consumables for the air force, Navy, army and rocket army. Any military live fire exercise and arms expansion will have a positive impact on the demand for missiles; The seeker accounts for about 50% of the total cost of the missile, and the proportion of precision guided ammunition reaches 72%, that is, the more advanced the missile is, the higher its value proportion is; The increase of missile demand in the future will bring greater increment to relevant sub industries such as seeker. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: accelerating the development of the industry after a century of changes is expected to welcome the golden age medium and long-term military stocks can be firmly held
It is not suitable to catch up in the short term, but can be firmly held in the medium and long term. In the short term, first of all, the current round of military industry index has increased by 21.5% since mid October. Some growth stocks have increased significantly, and the demand for valuation risk release has increased. However, the prosperity of the military industry sector is high, and the callback space of the military industry sector may be limited. Moreover, the current valuation quantile of the military industry sector is about 68%, and the limit of valuation improvement is far from coming; In the medium term, the removal of capacity bottlenecks will help the industry continue to improve its prosperity, and the rapid growth in the next three years is still expected. In the long run, the Centennial goal of building the army is nearly late, and the “Centennial change” accelerates the development of the industry, which is expected to welcome the golden age. We suggest that we should not catch up in the short term. We can firmly hold it in the medium and long term. We recommend Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) , etc. []
Anxin Securities: focus on aviation, aerospace, informatization and new materials
Focus on aviation, aerospace, informatization and new materials: 1) aviation equipment: we believe that aviation equipment will show a high boom during the 14th Five Year Plan period, driving the improvement of industrial chain performance. In addition, the reform of military pricing mechanism and the increase of equity incentive scheme will also promote the improvement of industry profit level. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) ], [ Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) ], [ Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) ], [ Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ], [ Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) ], [ Hefei Jianghang Aircraft Equipment Co.Ltd(688586) ], [ Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ], [ Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) ], [ Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) ], [ Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) ], [ Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) ], [ Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ], [ Jiangsu Maixinlin Aviation Science And Technology Corp(688685) ].
2) Aerospace equipment: in terms of missile weapons and equipment, the main driving factors of the missile industry mainly come from: the first is the iterative period, the second is the increase in the demand for strategic reserves, and the third is driven by practical training. The missile sector may be the most flexible segment during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will bring rapid performance thickening of relevant listed companies, pay attention to the overall opportunities of the missile sector, and give priority to the targets with high performance flexibility and high proportion of missile business. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) ] and [ Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) ]. In terms of Satellite Internet, Beidou navigation: the year-on-year growth rate of Beidou satellite navigation industry chain began to increase in 2020, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2021 and 2022. In Beidou navigation industry chain, the demand for Beidou navigation chips and Beidou navigation terminals increased rapidly; Satellite internet field: China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) network group is expected to become the main force of China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) Internet. At present, although China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) Internet is still in the early stage of development, Satellite Internet will still become an important development direction of 6G mobile communication. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Chengdu Corpro Technology Co.Ltd(300101) ] and [ Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) ].
4) Informatization sector: due to factors such as localization process, military modernization and accelerated update of new models, it has continued to exceed the growth of the industry since 2018, focusing on military semiconductors, upstream electronic components, radar and electronic countermeasures, communication, navigation and remote sensing, etc. the performance of some companies has taken the lead in entering the high-speed growth stage and is expected to continue in the next 21 years. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) ], [ Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) ], [ Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) ].
5) New materials: it is suggested to focus on the direction of superalloys, titanium alloys and carbon fiber composites. The military new material technology has basically realized self-control and represents China’s leading level, and the dual / multi flow system of model certification makes the suppliers limited, the competition pattern at the supply end is good, the demand end is due to the large volume of main battle models and supporting engines, the proportion of new material application is increasing, the outsourcing proportion of main engine manufacturers is increasing, domestic substitution and other factors, It is expected that the future growth of the industry is highly uncertain, and the scale effect will continue to appear after the demand increases, driving the continuous decline of unit cost. Therefore, the gross profit margin of the industry may still have room to improve and gradually realize to profit, and it is possible to urgently explore the civil market, with good long-term growth. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) ], [ Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) ], [ Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) ], [ Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) ]. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the profit margin of military main engine factory is expected to open quickly the valuation premium is expected to continue to maintain in the boom
After a year of gradual increase in production capacity and breakthrough in bottleneck links in batch production organization and management, the military industry will still show a high industry prosperity in 2022. At the end of the year and the first quarter, when the overall or complete machine factory combs the production tasks of the next year, it often starts the procurement of components and parts. Therefore, the upstream components are expected to usher in a new round of prosperity, and the growth rate is expected to rise better than that in the upper ring. We think we should pay attention to the boom window of components and parts in the first half of 2022. From the perspective of tight supply and demand, it is followed by chips, connectors and passive components. From the perspective of performance release, it is followed by passive components and connectors / chips. First Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , recommended Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) .
The military main engine factory undertakes the R & D and production of our military’s main battle equipment, and is in an industry monopoly position. In the past, the national investment in technological transformation was large, and the capacity utilization rate remained at a low level. The main engine factory was the link with the greatest improvement in capacity utilization during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In addition, the main engine plant is in the long position of the industrial chain. Under the current measures of marketization of military product prices and the introduction of multi flow supporting facilities, the main engine plant maintains a high weight, and the unreasonable profits in the industrial chain are gradually reconstructed, which benefits the main engine plant greatly. If equity incentives are superimposed, the profit margin of the main engine plant is expected to open quickly, and its valuation premium is expected to continue to maintain under the prosperity. The first is Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , and Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) are recommended. []
