Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, after a continuous rebound, we should pay attention to the rise and fall at any time. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the opportunity of undervalued varieties under the switching of market style. In terms of operation, if the index is adjusted, the potential opportunity of cross-year market will come again.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low. After the opening, there was a shock. Under the correction of heavyweights, the performance of the index was relatively weak. Since then, the index once rebounded, but failed to turn red, and fell again in the late trading. In addition, under the slight performance of subject stocks, the overall performance of gem is strong. On the specific disk, computers led the rise, while national defense and military industry, media and communications led the rise, while non-ferrous metals led the decline, and building materials, coal and household appliances fell.
Yesterday, the market rose and fell, and today's market adjustment is basically expected. In fact, the low opening finishing of the index on Friday has been slightly tired, and the high opening upward on Monday is mainly due to the boost of good news, but even so, the market trend is lower than expected, and all short-term pullbacks seem reasonable.
However, at present, the market is indeed supported and boosted by multiple factors, which has a positive impact on the medium-term positive trend of the market as a whole: first, the overall fundamentals and liquidity have remained stable before, which has brought some support to the market. This is also the core factor that has little room for overall retreat despite the index adjustment since the third quarter; Secondly, as the central bank lowered the reserve requirement, the expectation of monetary easing in the market increased, and the market confidence began to increase; Third, under the appreciation of RMB, the continuous inflow of funds from the North has effectively driven the enthusiasm and enthusiasm of the market. Next, the market expects that the RRR reduction will continue, and the future interest rate reduction may only be a matter of time. Under the expectation of monetary easing, the positive trend of the market in the medium term is gradually clear.
Of course, in the short term, there is also a demand for pullback in the market: on the one hand, it is not an all-round Panasonic at present. After some plates pulled up under the short-term good news, there is a trend of insufficient power, and the pullback demand in this stage increases; On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is coming, and the expectation of monetary tightening is gradually increasing, which has a certain impact on US stocks and global capital markets in the short term; In addition, the downward pressure on China's overall economy remains, and market shocks are repeated or inevitable.
On the whole, under the RRR reduction, the market easing expectation increases again. With the monetary and credit easing trend expected to be established in the coming year, the probability of a good market trend increases greatly. The short-term northward funds, securities companies and other emotional sectors have boosted the market, which is expected to promote the in-depth development of the index. If it is pointed out that it will withdraw as scheduled, it will still be a washing up as a whole. For investors who lurk in advance, they can appropriately sell high or reduce their holdings in stages, while for investors who are still waiting, wait for the index to retreat or a good opportunity to enter and allocate. Specific opportunities: focus on new and old infrastructure varieties benefiting from steady growth expectations and valuation repair, as well as financial sectors with performance support and valuation advantages. In addition, due to the overall downward pressure on the economy, we can continue to track the science and technology varieties with high boom certainty.
(Jufeng Finance)
