If an investment value ranking is made for the new energy vehicle industry chain, the first is the intelligent advanced new energy vehicle brand, the second is the relevant intelligent key technology supplier, the second and third tier battery plants, and the last is the structural material innovation on some new energy batteries.
From December 3 to 9, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) shares sharply adjusted after reaching a new high, falling 7.88% in five trading days, and the market value evaporated more than 120 billion yuan. However, at the same time, the new energy vehicle industry chain represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has recently replaced food and beverage as the "plate" with the largest market value of capital positions in northbound.
In this regard, institutions interviewed by the reporter of red weekly pointed out that the new energy vehicle industry chain is still "long slope and thick snow", and there are good investment opportunities in some subdivision tracks, such as intelligent and advanced new energy vehicles.
the market value of new energy held by northbound capital exceeds that of food and beverage
head battery manufacturers are the most concerned
According to the statistics of the reporter of red weekly, the market value of the new energy vehicle industry chain held by northbound capital recently has exceeded that of food and beverage, becoming its "first heavy position" plate. According to the statistics as of December 2, the market value of the new energy vehicle industry chain with capital positions in Beishang is 366.8 billion yuan, exceeding the market value of 363.6 billion yuan of food and beverage.
Specifically, for each link of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the market value of the capital position in the north is batteries, materials, complete vehicles + parts (except batteries, the same below), among which the market value of the battery position is 165.2 billion yuan, and the upstream materials and complete vehicles + parts position are 64.8 billion yuan and 52.4 billion yuan respectively. Among the battery stocks held by Beishang capital, the market value of its position in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reached 135.288 billion yuan (see Table 1).
The reporter of red weekly noted that since the beginning of this year, battery enterprises have obtained continuous increase of funds going north. For example, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , northbound capital increased its position by 24.74 million shares in the first half of the year, and continued to increase its position by 42.46 million shares in the second half of the year (as of December 8, the same below). Similarly, Beishang capital increased its positions in Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) during the year, reaching 72.72 million shares and 21.29 million shares respectively.
Although the share price of head battery enterprises has been significantly adjusted recently (December 3 ~ December 9), according to the reporter of red weekly who sought confirmation from a battery listed enterprise as an ordinary investor, the relevant person in charge of the other party's board secretary office said that the future development trend of new energy vehicles has not changed, and it is still in a period of rapid development.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Shi Yan, an analyst in the new power industry, told reporters that there is still huge room for growth in the future. "From the perspective of the overall penetration rate of the industry, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is only about 7%, and there is huge room for improvement in the industry as a whole in the future. At the same time, from the perspective of application fields, in addition to new energy vehicles, the energy storage market has begun to rise rapidly, which will further open up market space for battery enterprises."
In terms of market performance, Huatong, manager of Zhengyuan investment fund, told reporters, "Taking the head manufacturers as an example, on the one hand, the technical route and industrial prospect are unlikely to be fatally challenged in the next 2-3 years; on the other hand, the continuous high boom of many downstream application scenarios supports the high boom expansion of their business; finally, the prices of some upstream materials are likely to be at the top, and they may enter a downward cycle in the next 2-3 years, which will enhance the competitiveness of battery manufacturers, especially the head manufacturers The price voice of manufacturers in the Ministry. Therefore, the possibility of a sharp decline in the market value of head manufacturers is relatively small. However, from the perspective of the next 10 years, the market value growth of head manufacturers can only obtain the same income level as China's GDP growth. "
upstream material "production expansion tide" opens up growth space
but there are hidden worries about overcapacity in some material links
Compared with the battery enterprises with heavy capital positions in northbound, the upstream material link of lithium battery is the second heavy position of northbound capital in the new energy industry chain. According to statistics, since the second half of the year, northward capital has increased Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 2346 million shares, increased Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) 11.2 million shares, and increased Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) more than 30 million shares.
Beishang capital dares to increase the position of lithium battery upstream materials, which may be related to the tight supply and demand in this field. The reporter of red weekly noted that recently, upstream material enterprises have expanded production capacity supply. For example, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) consider expanding goulamina spodumene project, and the project capacity will increase by 75%; Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) it is proposed to build a new project of 10000t / a metal cobalt new material and 26000t / a ternary precursor.
Even if material enterprises expand their production on a large scale, the demand will remain tight in the next few years. Tian Yuan, a nonferrous metals analyst, told red weekly, "This year's global lithium salt (lithium carbonate + lithium hydroxide) The demand is about 500000 tons. By 2025, we predict that the global demand for lithium salt will reach 1.5 million tons. According to this calculation, there is more than twice the growth space for lithium mining enterprises in the future. At the same time, the marginal cost of lithium salt will continue to increase in the future. For example, the marginal cost of mining some low-grade lithium ores and clay may increase to 70000 ~ 80000 / ton in the future. "
The same is true for cobalt compared to lithium. Tian Yuan told reporters, "Although in ternary battery (main material nickel cobalt manganese) Under the background of high nickel, the unit use of cobalt will decline, but the demand for the whole cobalt will still increase with the increase of sales of new energy vehicles. At present, the performance growth rate of the head enterprises is relatively low, and the market pays relatively low attention to cobalt, but the head enterprises are carrying out integrated layout at present, and will have good growth in the future. "
However, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger car joint committee, told reporters that the global lithium hexafluorophosphate would face the risk of overcapacity. For example, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) announced to expand the planned capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate by 80000 tons, which may exceed the total global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2021 (estimated to be about 63500 tons).
Tian Yuan pointed out that one of the biggest risk factors in the industrial chain is that the "imbalance between supply and demand" leads to the cyclical intensification of the industry. "In the future, some material terminals will face the risk of overcapacity, but as the whole new energy vehicles are still in the accelerated growth period, this overcapacity may show the characteristics of 'phased'."
investment value slowly moves towards the whole vehicle
intelligent direction is worth noting
In addition to batteries and materials, the head company of new energy vehicles also received a large amount of funds to go north to increase its position. According to statistics, since the second half of the year, Byd Company Limited(002594) has obtained 16.8 million shares of northbound capital, and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) has obtained more than 3 million shares of northbound capital.
As the downstream consumer end of the industry, the sales volume of leading new energy vehicle enterprises continued to grow significantly, and the industry penetration was further improved. According to the latest data released by the passenger Federation on December 8, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 378000 in November, a year-on-year increase of 122.3%, a month on month increase of 19.8%, and the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 20%.
Institutional people believe that the current vehicle investment opportunities can be "focused". According to Cui Dongshu, there are good investment opportunities for new energy vehicles. Zhang Kexing, chairman of gray assets, believes that "the industry penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to increase in the future. With the global acceleration of the transformation to new energy vehicles, the whole new energy vehicle will be a long-term investment track that is expected to last for 5 ~ 10 years."
From the perspective of the development direction of new energy vehicles, Huatong believes that "it can be said that electrification is at the end of valuation expansion as a whole, and intelligence has just entered the early stage of growth."
However, the overall valuation level of the new energy vehicle industry chain (including batteries, materials, complete vehicles and parts) has reached 73.36 times, while the valuation level of some battery, material and complete vehicle companies has exceeded 100 times (see Table 2). In this regard, Zhang Kexing pointed out that we should pay attention to the "anchor" of the valuation of new energy vehicles, that is, the trend of Tesla. He said, "Tesla's share price has been in a relatively high position. At present, the high valuation of China's new energy vehicles may be unsustainable in the future, but compared with other industries, it is relatively reasonable for the new energy vehicle industry chain to continue to maintain a relatively high valuation level due to its high growth."
For investment opportunities, Shi Yan believes that we should first focus on the battery link. "We see that the price of raw materials in the upstream of the battery has increased greatly since 2021, and the battery link is facing great cost pressure; however, we have also seen some momentum of price increase in the battery industry recently. With the scale effect brought by the continuous increase of the overall installed capacity of the battery industry in 2022 and the catalysis of price increase factors, the profitability of battery enterprises is expected to be more significant in 2022 Repair of. In addition, we continue to be optimistic about the upstream and downstream vehicle links. "
Huatong believes that if an investment ranking is made for the new energy vehicle industry chain, the first is the intelligent new energy vehicle brand that will change greatly next year, the second is the key technology supplier of relevant intelligence, the third is the second and third line battery plants, and the fourth is the structural material innovation on some new energy batteries.
(stock market red weekly)
