The three major A-share indexes maintained a shock consolidation trend throughout the day, and finally the Shanghai index closed down 0.53% to close at 3661.53 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.50% to close at 15136.78; The gem index fell 0.05% to close at 3495.06. The market turnover reached 1.14 trillion yuan, breaking trillion yuan for the 38th consecutive trading day. Industry sectors were mixed, led by cultural media and software development sectors, and led by energy metals, automobile and coal industries. Northbound funds bought a net 6.026 billion yuan today.
Today’s news:
1. The CSRC will deploy five reform tasks next year to ensure the smooth implementation of the whole market registration system and accelerate the improvement of the overseas listing system
2. 900 million users “Big Mac” opened the subscription or the largest IPO of A-Shares in recent 10 years eight days after obtaining the approval of the CSRC
3. The five departments in Guizhou jointly strengthen Baijiu Supervision: investigate and prosecute the price of liquor and maintain the order of Baijiu market.
4. Two departments: solidly promote energy security and supply, and ensure the supply and stable price of bulk raw materials
5. Two departments: accelerate the promotion and application of new energy vehicles and accelerate the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles and power exchange stations
6. U.S. stocks tremble: economists generally expect the Federal Reserve to release the “Eagle dot matrix” this week
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Aijian Securities said that the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakened, the policy environment is good, the liquidity expectation is also good, and the market environment is relatively good. It is expected that the rising trend of shocks will continue. However, we should not be too radical, continue to maintain moderate optimism and actively grasp the trading opportunities in the market. From the perspective of opportunities, we will continue to pay attention to the recovery of low-level sectors, and continue to pay attention to the new energy industry chain, food and beverage, medicine and science and technology, and follow the market to seize trading opportunities.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that next year, under the dual pressure of interest rate restricting valuation and profit downward, the A-share market may usher in a rest. Historically, in this kind of market environment, the market and value are often better choices. At the same time, combined with the relative valuation of the style, the market value style is expected to continue the trend since 16 years last year, that is, the market is slightly better; In terms of growth value style, in terms of time, the dominant cycle of this round of growth lasts for three years, and there may be continuation of the growth style in the future. However, considering that the valuation premium of the relative value of growth is relatively obvious at present, the style is expected to return to value slightly next year, similar to the overall dominant growth in the middle of 2009-15, but the style also shifted to value in 2011.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that the cross year market has begun. At the same time, the periodic marginal “wide credit” expectation is increasing, which continues to promote the index market with size resonance. The economic work conference promotes the four main lines of the new year’s market: 1) pay attention to securities companies, an important carrier of the new year’s market interpretation. 2) New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair. 3) Double carbon related new energy and coal sectors. 4) Science and innovation growth plate represented by “small high tech”.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) indicates that looking forward to 2022, with the steady growth force, from the perspective of 1-2 quarters, the residual liquidity is likely to continue to improve. In other words, the probability of Shanghai stock index in 2022 will rise higher from the bottom area in 2021. Further combined with the yield distribution under different market characteristics, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) it is estimated that the yield of equity mutual funds in 2022 will be significantly differentiated, and the overall yield or marginal improvement compared with this year. Third, pay attention to growth and differentiation. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises. Mapping to equity, we should pay attention to growth differentiation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. First, under the background of structural bull market, significant differentiation within growth is a normal phenomenon. Take March 2020 to March 2021 as an example, the yields of semiconductors and new energy, which also have medium-term prosperity support, are significantly differentiated. Second, combined with the deductive laws of the semiconductor structure bull market in 2019, the Mao plate structure bull market in 2020 and the new energy structure bull market in 2021, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the boom is the core, the valuation water level and fund position will affect the follow-up space, and the structural bull market will switch between the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
YueKai Securities said that the A-share market is still expected to usher in a “tail raising market” under the multiple expectations of policy + liquidity + marginal improvement of economic data. Near the end of the year, A-shares will face valuation switching. From this point of view: in terms of total volume, the A-share economic cycle will be downward in 2022 (both kichin short cycle and zhugra medium cycle are in the second half), and profits may be under pressure, On the one hand, it is subject to the downward pressure on the economic aggregate. On the other hand, it is based on the impact of the high base effect in the same period last year. In this context, there are two investment directions in the near future: one is the opportunities brought by the expected improvement of performance; Second, continue to pursue high economic uncertainty.
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