The new year is approaching, and expectations are ups and downs!
Due to the relatively strong price expectations, the recent rise in Baijiu plate is stronger than that in the broader market. However, today, a document from Guizhou Province suddenly began to circulate in the market. According to the website of Guizhou market supervision and Administration Bureau, recently, the Bureau issued a public notice on the five departments of the provincial market supervision bureau, such as strengthening the supervision of Baijiu production license, strictly supervising the implementation of the main body exit in accordance with the law (Draft).
The notice pointed out that we should crack down on price violations, focus on strengthening market inspection on important holidays, focus on liquor sales markets such as liquor stores, Direct stores, hotels and supermarkets, severely crack down on price violations in the liquor market, and actively maintain the price order of the liquor market. Investigate and deal with illegal acts such as false transactions, driving up wine prices and infringing on the legitimate rights and interests of consumers in online transactions according to law. So how big is the impact?
It is worth noting that from the perspective of market structure, today is a key day. Previously, due to the recovery of the real estate sector, driving the financial strength, the market style was biased towards blue chip. However, the real estate sector in the Hong Kong stock market fell sharply today. Among them, the world trade service, a 10 billion property management enterprise, plunged by more than 30%. This has also affected the trend of large cap stocks to a certain extent. In the case of the weakness of large cap stocks, subject stocks have the meaning of making a comeback, so today's disk also shows the pattern of index killing and falling, but individual stocks rise more and fall less.
Guizhou outstanding heavy fist
To strengthen market supervision and promote the development of Baijiu Baijiu industry, Guizhou provincial market supervision bureau, the provincial public security department, the provincial natural resources department, the Provincial Department of ecological environment, The State Taxation Administration of Guizhou province Taxation Bureau and other departments drafted the five Department of the provincial market supervision bureau, such as the "strengthening the supervision of Baijiu production license, strictly supervising the implementation of the main body exit in accordance with the law" (see the draft) (see Annex), and soliciting opinions from the public. The notice requires that the opinions and suggestions be fed back to the food production safety supervision department of Guizhou Market Supervision Bureau before December 20, 2021.
Baijiu Baijiu is required to strengthen supervision after liquor production, strengthen routine supervision and inspection, maintain order in Baijiu market, and strive to improve liquor quality and safety. The Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu liquor production enterprise withdrawing mechanism that is complementary and effective linking administrative channels and judicial channels should be improved. For liquor production enterprises that fail to meet the licensing requirements and can not guarantee food quality and safety, they will not meet the licensing requirements and will not meet the requirements after rectification.
The notice stressed that we will severely crack down on price violations, strive to strengthen market inspection on important holidays, focus on liquor sales markets such as liquor stores and direct sales stores, hotels and supermarkets, severely crack down on price violations in the liquor market, and actively maintain the price order of the liquor market. We should crack down on unfair competition and pyramid selling, and take illegal actions such as pyramid selling in the name of Baijiu, and investigate illegal competition such as counterfeit confusion, false propaganda and so on. We must crack down on illegal transactions in the Internet transactions, actively supervise the main responsibility of the network trading platform in the province, strengthen the monitoring of Baijiu network transactions, and investigate illegal transactions in the network transactions, raise the price of liquor and infringe upon the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. We should strengthen the advertising monitoring in Baijiu market and severely crack down on commercial speculation, production of "special offer", "special" wine, propaganda and drinking behavior, and false advertising information. We must crack down on infringement and counterfeiting, and focus on investigating the Baijiu industry's infringement of trademark exclusive rights, counterfeiting and selling of goods, and the convenience of providing warehousing, transportation, design, printing and other convenience for infringement of the exclusive right of trademark to others.
Recently, Baijiu Baijiu is expected to be very strong, so the liquor sector is very awesome, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) also hit a new high.
Then, will this matter bring negative effects on the Baijiu plate? Analysts believe that the severe price increases may affect the price expectations of Baijiu to some extent, but this is not a fatal factor, and more importantly, demand is weakening. From China's reporters in Baijiu market, dealers expect that the wholesale price of Moutai will probably fall below 2000 yuan next year as the economy weakens and supplies increase. He said that although the decline in Maotai prices is small, demand has visibly weakened. On the one hand, real estate and education funds have withdrawn from the market, and on the other hand, the current consumption of the financial industry is also limited. Under such circumstances, Baijiu price will be a very sensitive matter. It may be wise for Guizhou Province to maintain market order at this time.
Hong Kong stocks and real estate fell sharply
actually, besides Baijiu, today the heavyweights have been basically beaten down. The key factor is real estate. Today, the decline of Hong Kong stocks and real estate stocks continued to expand. Among them, Shimao services decreased by more than 30%. Intraday, rongchuang service fell by more than 17%, Shimao Group fell by nearly 20%, and many stocks such as China Olympic Park and Baolong commerce fell by more than 10%.
Shimao services (00873. HK) announced last night (13th) that it would acquire the same Shanghai Shimao Co.Ltd(600823) (600823. SH) management business and related value-added services with RMB 1.65 billion. CICC issued a report, pointing out that the price is equivalent to about 18 times the P / E ratio of the trading target last year; In addition, the expansion target of Shimao service this year has been completed. The company's overall business is in a normal state. The bank maintained the 2021 profit forecast of Shimao services at RMB 1.28 billion, and lowered the 2022 profit forecast by 6% to RMB 1.91 billion, mainly reflecting a more cautious forecast on the income of non owner value-added services and some asset value-added services.
CICC believes that in the short term, due to investors' concerns about corporate governance, financial risks of the parent company and other factors, the stock price may still be under pressure. On the other hand, considering that the business construction of the service platform itself is still actively promoting, and even if only the contract projects in hand are considered, the current valuation level has been low, maintaining the rating of "outperforming the industry". Cut the target price by 63% to 10 yuan, equivalent to 12 times the predicted P / E ratio next year.
style changed again
From the perspective of market structure, today is a key day. Previously, the real estate sector released warmer expectations, so the real estate rose with finance, and the market style was also biased towards blue chip. However, with the sharp decline of the real estate sector in the Hong Kong stock market today, the style has quietly changed. A-share financial stocks generally fell. The traditional weight plate is only strong baijiu.
in contrast, theme stocks are active again. Fund hunting yuan universe theme, Meisheng Cultural & Creative Corp.Ltd(002699) , H&R Century Union Corporation(000892) , Shunya International Martech (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300612) and other continuous sealing plates. Digital currency, electric power and environmental protection sectors rose in the afternoon, and Huadian Energy Company Limited(600726) , State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) and so on. Overall, 2487 stocks rose throughout the day, while 1946 stocks fell. This is in sharp contrast to the overall flameout of the index.
From the trend of the Treasury bond market, there is also a signal that is obviously conducive to the strength of growth stocks. Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with 10-year main contracts up 0.22%, 5-year main contracts up 0.12%, 2-year main contracts up 0.06%, and treasury bond yields down across the board. Jianghai Securities said that the trend of treasury bonds shows that the market is expected to exceed the renewal of MLF on the 15th, and even expects the MLF interest rate to be lowered. From the market trend after the previous MLF interest rate reduction, it is also conducive to the development of growth stocks.
In addition, driven by events at the end of the year, the expectations of the rare earth management regulations released at the beginning of this year, the seed industry revitalization plan released in the middle of this year, and the top-level design of hydrogen energy released at the end of the year have not been fulfilled. Recently, the market of meta universe has been deduced to the field of digital currency. In addition, the willingness of institutions to make efforts at the end of the year is obviously not as good as hot money. Therefore, the force environment of theme stocks is still good.
Guizhou's five departments jointly strengthen Baijiu Supervision: investigate and prosecute the price of liquor and maintain the order of Baijiu market.
(brokerage China)
