With the news that leading enterprises recently raised the price at the beginning of next year, the titanium dioxide market, which has performed strongly throughout the year, has been injected with a "booster". Under the background of weakening market demand and weak cost support in China, can the titanium dioxide Market repeat this year's hot market next year?
Longqi announced to raise the price next year
On December 13, Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) (002601) issued a price increase announcement, which said that according to the market demand of titanium dioxide and the rise of raw material prices, the company's price committee decided that the sales price of various models of titanium dioxide (including sulfuric acid titanium dioxide and chlorination titanium dioxide) of the company would be increased by 1000 yuan / ton to various Chinese customers on the basis of the original price from January 1, 2022, Increase by $150 / ton for various international customers.
Then, on December 14, Panzhihua tihai Technology Co., Ltd. also issued a price increase letter, saying that due to the continuous high price of raw materials, combined with the current market situation of China's international titanium dioxide, the company decided to adjust the price from now on, with an increase of 1000 yuan / ton for Chinese customers of rutile / anatase titanium dioxide and 150 dollars / ton for international customers.
On December 14, Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) (002145) also announced that the sales price of various models of titanium dioxide of the company will be comprehensively increased from January 1, 2022. Among them, the sales price of Chinese customers increased by 1000 yuan / ton and that of international customers increased by 150 dollars / ton.
According to YANTI's statistical data, at present, the mainstream prices of most sulfuric acid rutile and anatase titanium dioxide in China are 19200-21000 yuan / ton and 17800-19000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices of domestic and imported chlorinated rutile titanium dioxide are 23500-26000 yuan / ton and 30500-32000 yuan / ton (both tax inclusive cash ex warehouse prices).
"Although the overall trend of China's titanium dioxide market this year is strong, there has also been a round of price decline from the end of October to November. At present, the market is a trend of stopping the decline and stabilizing." For the recent situation of China's titanium dioxide market, Yang Xun, an analyst of YANTI titanium industry, said that in the first ten days of December, the titanium dioxide price market basically remained stable, the trading atmosphere was poor, there were few large orders in the terminal market, generally small orders, and there was a strong willingness to compare prices and lower prices, basically showing the situation of simultaneous compression of the profits of upstream and downstream channels. At present, high and low prices remain stable at the same time, and the demand market has not improved significantly. However, due to the shortage of spot of some manufacturers, there are more and more voices of rising, and the long and short market is extremely anxious.
Tian Xiaoyu, titanium dioxide analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, also introduced that after the golden nine silver ten, China's titanium dioxide market as a whole showed a price reduction trend, which is due to poor Chinese demand.
in this context, why did Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) and other enterprises once again promote the market in 2022? some people in the industry told the reporter of the securities times · e company that in November, the international titanium dioxide giants represented by chemours have announced an increase in the price of 2022. In addition, although the market demand for titanium dioxide in China was light in November, the international demand was still strong. The foreign trade orders of leading enterprises did increase significantly, which also supported the price.
Yang Xun also said that at present, the operating rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers in East China, central China and southwest China is not high, and there are production restriction, shutdown and maintenance plans in December, and the actual output may be reduced by 50%, while the production restriction of anatase manufacturers in southwest and South China is increased and the inventory is low. At the same time, exports drive the delivery of goods. The spot inventory of manufacturers is not high. Longqi southwest factory is still in the stage of order arrangement and delivery, and some manufacturers arrange orders until the end of the month.
strong market support performance throughout the year
In 2021, China's titanium dioxide market as a whole maintained a strong market, and leading enterprises issued price increase letters 11 times during the year.
"In July and November this year, the market experienced two price pullbacks in actual transactions, both of which were caused by poor Chinese demand." For the situation of China's titanium dioxide Market in 2021, Tian Xiaoyu analyzed that since July, the main data indicators of China's real estate market have declined, and the terminal demand is poor, resulting in a shrinking demand in the downstream coatings, plastics and other markets of titanium dioxide. Since November, the weather in the North has turned cold and the downstream demand is light. However, on the whole, China's titanium dioxide market maintained a strong pattern in 2021.
According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, as of the end of November this year, the national average price of titanium dioxide was higher than that at the beginning of the year. Among them, the price of rutile titanium dioxide by sulfuric acid method increased from 16300 yuan / ton on January 1 to 19700 yuan / ton on November 30, an increase of 20.86%. During the year, the average value was 19210 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 38.75%. The price of anatase titanium dioxide rose from 13100 yuan / ton on January 1 to 18042 yuan / ton on November 30, an increase of 37.72%. During the year, the average value was 16846 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 44.95%.
Under the background of rising prices, the performance of relevant listed companies also achieved excellent performance.
According to the performance forecast of 2021 disclosed by Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , the company expects the net profit of 2021 to be 4.577 billion yuan to 5.722 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100% to 150%.
As for the reasons for performance changes, Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) said that during the reporting period, the titanium dioxide market, the company's main product, was in a boom cycle, and the sales price increased more year-on-year. The utilization rate of existing titanium dioxide production capacity is improved, especially the company's chlorination production capacity is effectively released. Although the sharp rise in the price of raw and auxiliary materials and transportation expenses has a certain adverse impact on the operating performance, the competitive advantage of the company's vertically integrated whole industry chain has fully emerged, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in the company's net profit.
Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) the third quarterly report of 2021 also shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.375 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 27.63%, and a net profit of 345 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211.16%. From January to September 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.77%, and a net profit of 1.002 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.37%.
weak cost support and hidden worries in the market
The strong performance of titanium dioxide market price this year is supported by the cost brought by the rise in the price of upstream raw materials.
According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, as one of the important raw materials of titanium dioxide, the national average price of 46% titanium concentrate this year rose from 1925 yuan / ton on January 1 to 2175 yuan / ton on November 30, an increase of 12.99%. During the year, the average value was 2276 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 57.75%. The national average price of 98% sulfuric acid, another raw material, also rose from 279 yuan / ton on January 1 to 571 yuan / ton on November 30, an increase of 104.93%. During the year, the average value was 548 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 296.18%.
"However, in recent times, the price of upstream raw materials such as titanium concentrate is low, or the price of titanium dioxide has room for downward." According to Yang Xun's analysis, at present, the price of titanium middling above grade 38 in Panxi area is about 1430-1500 yuan / ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is about 2130-2200 yuan / ton (excluding tax), and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is 2500-2550 yuan / ton. Recently, the transaction price of titanium ore market in Panxi has basically remained stable, and the demand for titanium ore in Yunnan is also relatively stable. However, the downstream acid slag market is a little weak, but the price has also remained stable. Affected by the weather, Chengde miners have not started enough, some small miners have limited or stopped production, Chengde titanium market may stop falling, and the short-term market price will maintain stable operation. Panxi titanium ore market has slightly warmed up, and small and medium-sized miners are eager to try for profit, but the terminal price comparison and price reduction are serious.
In this context, Yang Xun believes that early December has passed, and the price market has experienced some ideological struggle from "constant rumors of low prices" to "constant rumors of price increases". At present, the trading market of titanium dioxide is still weak, and the downstream is always a mood of buying up rather than falling. At present, the inventory position of the supply side is low, and the arrangement and shortage of goods have lasted for some time. The two ends of supply and demand are in a serious confrontation and are evenly matched, but manufacturers seem to have a tendency to regain a strong position. In the short term, there is a confrontation between long and short in the trading market, but the inventory positions of the main large manufacturers are low, and the arrangement and delivery are more prominent. In the wait-and-see mood, the latest price policy of dragon enterprises is particularly key.
According to the current market, Tian Xiaoyu also believes that the price of titanium dioxide is still expected to rise before and after the Spring Festival. He said that on the one hand, because the price of titanium dioxide in China is still cost-effective compared with the foreign market, it is expected that the support of foreign demand is expected to continue before the end of the first quarter of next year, and the export volume is not expected to shrink. On the other hand, China's demand will be mainly stable. Therefore, the short-term market price before and after the spring festival may rise steadily, but it is difficult to reproduce the increase and landing strength in the first half of 2021.
(E company)
