At the end of 2021, the market is about to come to an end, and public funds have recently shared their investment prospects for 2022.
The reporter learned from the 2022 investment strategy report shared by China Europe Fund, China Southern Fund, Jingshun Great Wall Fund, Hua'an fund, YONGYING fund, Qianhai open source fund, Cinda Aoyin fund and other public funds that the industry is still optimistic about the equity market in 2022. Although the market volatility may increase, there is "surprise" but no "risk" in a one-year dimension. Overall, the fund company believes that 2022 is still a structural opportunity.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, a number of public funds believe that their current valuation is relatively low in history. In the medium and long term, opportunities for the layout of Hong Kong stocks appear, but the short-term upward space is limited.
In the bond market, some fund companies said that China's interest rate trend is still in the downward channel. When interest rates go down, see when monetary policy is loose. Policy has become the main source of poor expectations and the key to triggering the market. Meanwhile, in 2022, tail urban investment, real estate and zombie state-owned enterprises will continue to expose risks. For the future allocation direction of the bond field, public funds are recommended to focus on high-grade credit, tap the credit interest margin at the AA + level, and actively grasp the credit band opportunity of secondary capital bonds.
is the money making effect still in 2022?
The bull market since 2019 ends on the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2021. Since the Spring Festival in 2021, the market as a whole has been in a volatile range and lacks directional opportunities. After the general rise in 2020, the differentiation of the stock market will intensify in 2021.
In this regard, according to the analysis of the South Fund, there is a positive correlation between the growth rate of social finance and the stock index in history. The month on month growth of new social finance TTM, the year-on-year growth of M2 and the growth rate of stock social finance have rebounded successively. However, under the background that it is difficult to fully relax the real estate policy, the growth rate of social finance recovers moderately, and the stock market is expected to fluctuate slightly in 2022.
In terms of style, China Southern Fund is expected to grow and dominate in small cap in 2022. Although overseas interest rates have an upward trend, China's interest rates are easy to fall but difficult to rise. Under the guidance of gem, science and innovation board and Beijing stock exchange, the theme of innovation and creation may continue to maintain a relative popularity, and the overall style of equity is expected to continue to favor growth. At the same time, the pressure of economic downturn drives the blue chip market to lose the small market. It is expected that before the economy recovers significantly in 2022, the small market may continue to outperform the large market.
"Next year, with the approaching inflection point of overseas liquidity and the superposition of factors such as inflation pressure, we may face the risk of weakening domestic and foreign demand at the same time, and the need for bottom-up stimulation of domestic demand is increasing." Jingshun Great Wall Fund said that China's macro leverage ratio remains basically stable, which determines that credit expansion and policy stimulus may be more restrained in 2022, and there may still be some pressure on economic growth.
From the perspective of structure, the company believes that real estate investment and export will tend to decline, manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment and consumption will recover moderately, and there is room for further easing of monetary policy.
At the same time, as regulatory expectations gradually stabilized, investor confidence began to recover and risk appetite improved. In the long run, Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that residents' demand for wealth management has increased, and the allocation value of financial assets, especially equity assets, has become increasingly prominent. In terms of valuation, the market's short-term valuation pressure has been released, and the overall valuation level is expected to be stable or rise slightly next year. On the whole, next year may not be an index level market, but there is little systemic risk. The probability will continue this year's structural market, and the direction of credit structure expansion will also bring more risks α opportunity.
Hua'an Fund believes that the market volatility will increase in 2022, and there will be "surprise" but no "risk" in the annual dimension.
On the one hand, the company expects that the economic resonance outside China will slow down in 2022, the policy will be entrusted but not carried out, and the profit growth will decline from the high level (2021 expectation = 31%) (2022 expectation = 5.6%); Under the background of real estate credit control, market volatility increased. On the other hand, the current risk premium is at the historical 50% quantile. With the weakening of risk-free rate of return, the equity cost performance is expected to gradually increase. It is expected that the market will be "surprised" without "risk" in the dimension of the whole year.
Following the "new development concept", the market will fully respond to "green" (carbon neutralization) and "coordination" (antitrust / prevention of disorderly capital expansion, etc.) in 2021. Therefore, the company said that in 2022, the market will gradually price "innovation, openness and sharing", and there are still structural opportunities.
Hua'an Fund said that in 2022, the attraction of equity allocation is expected to gradually increase. At present, the risk premium is at the 50th percentile since 2010, at the historical average level; The equity performance price ratio is better than that in early 2011 and 2018. The index adjustment will increase the attractiveness of equity, and the overall risk is safe.
YONGYING Fund believes that there is still downward pressure on China's economy in 2022 and there is still a need for policy care. "Growth in 2022 is still an important main line, and the style is more balanced and convergent." YONGYING Fund said.
In the view of YONGYING fund, loose liquidity still supports the market at this stage. At present, the overall risk-free interest rate is at a relatively low level in history, and in December, the central bank once again announced a comprehensive RRR reduction since July. The monetary easing orientation is relatively clear, and it is expected that the narrow liquidity can still be maintained relatively abundant. Under this influence, it is obvious that the style of small and medium-sized market capitalization has been dominant since the second quarter, and this pattern is expected to continue.
At the same time, the easing efforts are relatively restrained, and the industry rotation characteristics are obvious. In 2021, especially since the second half of the year, the monetary policy has been loose but restrained, and the economic expectation is relatively weak, resulting in the market in a relatively tangled state. The index level fluctuates. The small cap and growth index are slightly strong, but they can not support the continuous upward movement of the large plate. The rotation is very fast, and the large market cannot be formed. For 2022, although monetary policy tends to be loose, it will still be relatively restrained by external constraints. The characteristics of industry rotation may continue, and it is relatively unlikely that a single sector will have a unilateral trend.
In addition, the relative advantage of Mao index has improved, and the differentiation between growth and certainty begins to converge. YONGYING fund also expects PPI to peak and fall, while terminal demand will be moderately repaired. At present, it is expected that the overall profit growth rate of the whole a sector will decline next year, but the differentiation of upstream, middle and downstream will not be as extreme as this year. Due to the decline of overall profit growth, the plates with relatively high growth next year are still scarce.
According to the analysis of Cinda Australia Bank fund, in 2022, under the demand of stable growth and wide credit, the market of the whole year was cautious and optimistic, and the first quarter was the most favorable stage of macro portfolio. The statement of monetary policy in the second quarter is an important observation window for the adjustment of share debt allocation ratio.
In terms of rhythm research and judgment, the company said that capital migration is beneficial to long cattle. With the implementation of the new regulations on asset management and the policy of "housing, housing and non speculation", it is the general trend for residents to move their deposits; At the annual level, the stock market is expected to maintain the capital inflow trend next year; With the development of money, the continuity of growth style is expected to remain longer.
Meanwhile, Cinda Australia silver fund said that the "spring agitation" is different, but the overall opportunity is greater than the risk. "The new year and the first quarter of the next year are the most friendly period for the macro environment. It is easy to see rising prices in history; in spring, the style is more inclined to growth."
At the 2022 equity investment strategy meeting of China Europe Fund, Liu Weiwei, fund manager of the company, said that from the perspective of macro background, there will be great downward pressure on the overall economy next year. On the one hand, the real estate industry chain is facing great pressure, and the import and export data have fallen to a certain extent. On the other hand, from the perspective of liquidity, we will enter a new round of easing cycle of monetary policy next year. Under this macro background, we are still optimistic about the capital market and stock market next year. From the perspective of industry structure, under the background of loose liquidity, it is very favorable for the performance of overall growth stocks.
"Looking forward to next year, I think that due to the rising pressure of inflation and the tight margin of overseas liquidity, the potential demand in the coming months is relatively weak, and it will not appear that the demand will pick up because of the epidemic in the past. The lack of potential demand may make inflation phased, and there are still many industries that are relatively cold. The contraction of tightening or raising interest rates may have a relatively negative impact on many industries." Qu Yang, manager of Qianhai open source fund, said at the company's 2022 investment strategy meeting.
In Qu Yang's view, reflected in the stock market, A-Shares will still show a structural market. It is difficult for the market as a whole to have a trend of sharp rise and fall, because it is difficult to form a joint force from the policy and trend, the overall cake growth is under pressure, and the industries that obtain resources may have better growth opportunities.
which A-share segments deserve attention
In terms of fundamentals, China Southern Fund believes that the all a profitability (ROE TTM) in 2022 will peak in the third quarter of this year. The performance trend of A-Shares has a strong correlation with PPI. It is expected that after the PPI goes down next year, the annual profit growth may fall back to about 5%; In terms of valuation, the company said that the overall CSI index returned to more than 50% quantile, and the estimation of science and technology growth sector was high. However, the PE valuations of CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index were about the lower 20% and 5% of the historical value respectively, which were still relatively underestimated.
In terms of liquidity, after the real estate was suppressed, the asset allocation role of the stock market increased, the market heat continued to rise, and the trading volume of more than trillion became the norm. It is expected that the trend of residents' wealth transfer will still promote more funds to enter the market. The market trading volume may reach a higher level in 2022, but the hot spots are scattered and turn to small and medium-sized markets.
In terms of industry, China Southern Fund said that in 2022, the high prosperity new energy, innovative drugs, semiconductors and national defense industry sectors will provide stronger performance flexibility, while the stable financial real estate, pan consumption, manufacturing and cycle sectors will provide better defensive attributes.
According to the overall judgment of Jingshun Great Wall Fund, next year is not an index level market, but the probability of sharp decline is not large. The structural market will continue, and the direction of credit structure expansion will also bring more alpha opportunities.
First, ppi-cpi scissors convergence, downstream profitability repair. It is suggested to focus on consumption blue chips with strong price raising ability or large industry space and sufficient valuation digestion; Second, under the transitional economy, science and technology manufacturing and large consumption have long-term excess returns. In the current environment of transition economy, the industrial trend of structural credit expansion supporting emerging industries (new energy, semiconductor, specialty and special new, medical equipment) continues to rise; Third, pay attention to the long-term bottom allocation value of Hong Kong stocks. At present, Hong Kong stocks have an obvious safety margin; Fourth, pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of real estate leaders under the background of marginal relaxation of real estate policy; And beta opportunities in the securities sector in the monetary and credit easing cycle; Fifth, since the beginning of this year, the market has shown the trend of multi-point flowering, the profit-making effect has spread significantly, and the quantitative strategy with a wide range of stock selection is more dominant; In addition, in the market environment with large market fluctuations and limited beta income, fixed income + products with absolute income as the goal are also a better choice.
"From a bottom-up perspective, we conduct internal scoring based on the five dimensions of the industry's medium and long-term trend, short-term prosperity change, short-term catalyst, valuation level (absolute and relative) and emotion to find the most cost-effective sub industries. In general, the Internet of things, medical services, photovoltaic, semiconductor, banking and other sectors have high prosperity and high investment cost performance." Jingshun Great Wall Fund said.
In terms of industry allocation, Hua'an fund proposes to seize the new opportunities of the new development concept of "innovation, openness and sharing" in 2022.
The company said that the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee put forward five new development concepts of "innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing". In 2021, "green" (carbon neutralization) and "coordination" (antitrust / prevention of disorderly expansion of capital, etc.) will respond fully. Looking forward to 2022, the direction of "innovation, openness and sharing" will also be gradually priced by the market.
In terms of innovation, 5g / digital economy gave birth to industrial sprouts, and the growth rate in Ar / VR, Internet of things and other directions was high. At the same time, green and low-carbon will promote the development of renewable energy and electric / intelligent vehicles.
In terms of opening up, China's industrial policy continues to open to the outside world, and manufacturing / industrial automation is expected to reach a new level. At the same time, the R & D of covid-19 oral drugs is accelerated, and the post epidemic cycle industries such as hotels / airlines are expected to improve periodically.
In terms of sharing, common prosperity and new asset management regulations promote the transfer of residents' asset allocation from real estate to capital market, and the wealth management industry is expected to usher in a great opportunity for long-term development.
For the investment direction in 2022, YONGYING Fund said that "the current cycle, consumption in the medium term and growth in the long term".
In terms of growth industry, new energy vehicles are a high boom track. At present, the logic of price rise has come to an end, and the market began to pay attention to the demand for next year: it is expected that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China will accelerate and the implementation of U.S. policy subsidies will help the global electrification of vehicles to a new level; Alleviating the bottleneck of auto parts supply chain helps the industry rebound, and parts will usher in configuration opportunities under the trend of electric intelligence; The easing of the bottleneck of the photovoltaic supply chain has brought about a big year of installed demand, and the middle and downstream links are expected to usher in a double increase in volume and profit; The prosperity of the upper reaches of the military industry still has comparative advantages, and the prosperity of the intermediate links has accelerated significantly. Its high prosperity track is the aircraft + missile chain, with a compound growth rate of 25% in the whole industrial chain in five years.
In terms of consumption, high-end Baijiu in food and beverage is steady, and the quantity of food is double. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the potential impact of consumption tax; In addition, attention should be paid to the centralized purchase of medicine and the reform of public hospitals. The impact of the centralized purchase of medicine policy is weakened, and the short-term impact of the reform policy of public hospitals is limited, so it is necessary to track and observe its long-term impact; In the agricultural sector, the pig cycle is in the early stage of capacity removal. Next year, with further removal, the pig cycle will start slowly.
In terms of cyclical industries, attention can be paid to the repair market under the expectation of steady growth in 2022. First, the real estate industry is at the inflection point of gradual repair at the bottom, thinking about real estate investment opportunities with the final thinking. Under the condition of stable demand, it is expected that the difficulty and pressure of house price regulation will increase significantly in 2022. Therefore, the necessity of policy correction has increased significantly and is being fulfilled. No matter how much the policy is relaxed, select excellent targets that can experience the pain of real estate supply side reform. If the industry shrinks in the future, companies with high asset quality and good cash flow will gain greater market share.
In addition, we should also pay attention to the repair market under the stable growth expectation of the cyclical industry, such as finance, which is conducive to the securities sector under the loose monetary environment. In the first three quarters of 2021, the profitability of securities companies continued to improve, and roe reached a new high after the 15 year bull market. Under the loose environment of steady growth, it is conducive to the equity market, and securities companies are high β The sector will also benefit.
On the whole, Cinda Aoyin Fund believes that in 2022, interest rates are easy to loosen but difficult to tighten, and the growth style is dominant. It is optimistic about green power, new energy, semiconductor, military industry, innovative drugs and other growth industries for a long time. If there are stage repair opportunities in real estate chain / traditional value industries, be patient.
"In the medium and long term, we need to maintain an appropriate equity position. In addition, China's second quarter is an important observation window period. We should dynamically evaluate and adjust the proportion of equity and fixed income according to the changes of monetary policy."
Qu Yang, manager of Qianhai open source fund, is optimistic about the opportunities of two types of Companies in 2022. First, with the increase of GDP and per capita disposable income, the consumption capacity and dividend are gradually improved and released, and there is an accelerated process in some fields. "As long as China's economy is growing, dividends and growth in these directions are the most sustainable and reliable."
Secondly, China's engineer bonus may be exploding, especially in some industries that seem to have low added value, such as consumer electronics industry, photovoltaic industry and other chemical industries, but the added value is not high, but the volume is large, and there are enough engineers and high-speed industrial talents, making China increasingly become a global leader in these fields, Most of the market is occupied by Chinese enterprises.
Qu Yang said frankly that the bonus of Chinese engineers will enable China to gain more cake in the global economy, which is the driving force of future economic growth. "Now this dividend is still in its early stage. In the future, with policy guidance and resource preference, I believe that the dividend from the improvement of global competitiveness will continue to be released, and enterprises in the fields of consumption upgrading, wealth management and high-end manufacturing will obtain better growth prospects relying on the dividend of the times. Looking for investment opportunities in these aspects may get twice the result with half the effort and bring more benefits to everyone Good return. "
"At the current time point, we can be more optimistic about core assets. There are two dimensions: first, these companies have very good future resilience and are among the best companies in China. We emphasize the safety margin. At the current time point, we see that these companies have entered a focus range. In the long run, we believe that the current investment value of these companies is still very prominent; second, There are some overheated areas in the whole capital market this year. I am more cautious about some assets that are very overheated, valuation overdraft and possible reversal of supply and demand pattern. " Cheng Yuxuan, China Europe Fund Manager, said.
what is the value of Hong Kong stock allocation?
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, China Southern Fund believes that the valuation is at a relatively low historical level, and the proportion of capital outflow from the South has increased. In the medium and long term, opportunities for the layout of Hong Kong stocks appear. However, at present, it is still affected by the policies of science and technology, education and other sectors, and the market sentiment is low. Meanwhile, the US dollar index is expected to remain relatively strong in 2022, which will drag down Hong Kong stocks and emerging market stocks, and the short-term upward space is limited.
However, Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that it needs to pay attention to the long-term bottom allocation value of Hong Kong stocks in 2022.
In the view of the company, the component weights of the Hong Kong stock market are more exposed to sectors such as Internet technology, finance, real estate and consumer goods. These weight sectors continue to be under pressure under this year's industrial rectification policy and rank the bottom in the yield of major equity markets in the world.
At the current time point, the adverse factors of relevant sectors have been fermented for nearly one year or even longer. From the perspective of investment, we should pay more attention to: first, the marginal changes of bad factors. For the capital market, the response of policy risk factors has been sufficient, or even overpriced, and the expectation has eased.
Second, the valuation safety cushion of core assets. Whether from the perspective of a / h price comparison or the profit and valuation expectations of major global equity indexes, Hong Kong stocks currently have an obvious margin of safety.
"In addition, some high-quality companies in Hong Kong stocks (such as core consumption, medicine, Internet technology, etc.) are scarce. At present, the valuation has been digested to a historically low level. If there are subsequent adjustments under the impact of tightening overseas liquidity, the medium and long-term funds will get a better allocation opportunity." Jingshun Great Wall Fund said.
"When you stare at Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stocks are staring at you. If you want to find a value depression in Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stocks will meet you with the challenge of value depression." Since the beginning of this year, many funds determined to make efforts in Hong Kong stocks have failed. Luo Jiaming, fund manager of China Europe, said that at present, there are three signals indicating that Hong Kong stocks have reached the bottom range and historic opportunities are about to appear: first, the refinancing amount of Hong Kong stock enterprises is at a low point; Second, there are a large number of buybacks by Hong Kong listed companies: Third, the ah share premium index is higher than the level of more than 90% in recent 10 years.
In 2022, Luo Jiaming said that he would continue to firmly dig gold in the abyss of Hong Kong stocks and find a balance between high returns and fluctuations by means of "stable positions, concentrated individual stocks and scattered industries".
How can I get to the bond market?
In the view of China Southern Fund, at present, China's interest rate trend is still in the downward channel. When interest rates go down, see when monetary policy is loose. Policy has become the main source of poor expectations and the key to triggering the market.
The company said that if the expected interest rate cut is fulfilled in the first half of 2022, the interest rate will have the opportunity to exceed 2.5%. The net financing growth rate of government bond issuance is not completely consistent with the trend of interest rate. If there is an interest rate rebound caused by the large-scale issuance of special bonds, it will provide allocation opportunities. Under the downward trend of the economic center, the upward space of interest rate in 2022 will end at 3.0% - 3.2%.
According to the analysis of Hua'an fund, the risk-free interest rate will show a weak pattern in 2022.
This is because, on the one hand, the "real estate loan concentration management" has caused a slowdown in credit growth and a certain pressure on economic growth, driving the weak yield of government bonds from the fundamentals. On the other hand, the RRR reduction and other policies promote the reasonable and abundant liquidity, and the Treasury bond yield is weak from the capital side.
Jingshun Great Wall Fund pointed out that in the fourth quarter of this year, the risk of private enterprise real estate bonds continued to be exposed, there was a panic sale of domestic and overseas real estate bonds, and the tone of the central bank's housing related loan policy was relaxed. The trading of bank capital replenishment instruments is active, and the primary and secondary levels form a benign interaction. Urban investment bonds were further divided, some regions were sold off, and economically developed regions were favored.
Looking forward to next year, the company believes that the financial environment is still complex, deleveraging into the deep-water area, the stock of urban investment debt may be compressed, the local willingness to exchange is still strong, but the financial resources are limited, and the liquidation of private real estate is still on the way. After the liquidation this year and next, the real estate will usher in healthy development, and the living enterprises will be more standardized and stable. Bank capital replenishment tools will continue to be favored by the market next year. After the shadow bank is destroyed, credit creation will return to the bank, the pressure of bank capital replenishment will continue, and the market also needs a new high interest asset to undertake financial needs.
In terms of allocation suggestions, Jingshun Great Wall Fund proposes to still focus on high-grade credit, and tap the credit interest margin at the AA + level. The secondary capital debt has become a new trading tool, which can actively grasp its credit band opportunities. The remaining real estate debt is the king, and mining the remaining may be the direction of credit enhancement. In terms of credit risk, tail urban investment, real estate and zombie state-owned enterprises will continue to expose risks. We should adhere to zero tolerance of credit risk and control credit risk through careful research.
(Financial Associated Press)
