Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Ping An Securities: configure leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages
Looking forward to 2022, under the pressure of short-term fundamentals, there is still room for policy game, and the plate valuation and low position enhance the safety margin. In the medium term, the industry bottoms out and stabilizes, the main investment line returns to fundamentals, the share of excellent enterprises increases and considerable development is worth looking forward to under the pattern reconstruction and model reform. We are optimistic about the overall performance of the real estate sector in 2022 and maintain the rating of “stronger than the big market”. It is recommended to select individual stocks throughout the year and allocate leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , etc.
At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the potential “surviving” real estate enterprises that are expected to improve their financial situation and have valuation flexibility, such as Longguang group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) . Considering the increasing importance of diversified businesses in the stock era, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the property management and business management sectors with broad space and strengthened independent development, and be optimistic about the property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength, country garden services, poly property, xinchengyue services, Jinke services, rongchuang services, as well as the commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, Xingsheng commerce, etc. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: current real estate the market is in the combination of + ” policy bottom ” {123456
At present, the market is in the combination of “fundamental bottom area” + “policy bottom”, the policy support is increasing, and the policy is gradually transitioning from the credit end to the demand end. According to past experience, the impact of the policy on the valuation elasticity of the sector is greater than the performance, and the valuation of the sector generally begins to rise in the area where the fundamentals are at the bottom. The industry has entered a virtuous circle in the process of survival of the fittest and credit reconstruction, benefiting state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises with moat. We suggest paying attention to the leading stocks in the high-quality housing development industry: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) ; It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality property management companies: Xuhui Yongsheng service, Jinke service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) . []
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : the real estate industry will usher in a double recovery of policy and fundamentals
Although the real estate credit policy has entered an obvious recovery cycle, we still need to point out that real estate enterprises are still in the negative cycle of credit contraction. The most important condition to break this negative cycle is good sales collection. The decline of real estate will seriously drag down economic growth. We believe that the follow-up underpinning policy is expected to increase, including the recent Politburo meeting, which also set the tone to promote the “virtuous cycle” of the real estate industry, and the industry will usher in a double recovery in policy and fundamentals.
Considering the late launch of the policy and the sharp decline in sales, we mainly recommend the stable combination Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) and Xuhui holding group with high security; It is suggested to pay attention to rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , which benefit from policy stimulus and have greater fundamental flexibility. Wuguan mainly recommends the head enterprise country garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service and rongchuang service. Business management mainly recommends Longhu group, Baolong business and Xingsheng business, and suggests paying attention to the life of China Resources Land and China Resources Vientiane. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : leading real estate enterprises will fully benefit three investment mainlines in the post crisis era after the pain deserve attention
At present, the positive signal of policy is more obvious, and the liquidity at both ends of supply and demand is expected to be marginal loose. At present, sales continue to cool, industry fundamentals are still declining, and policy transmission still needs time. At the current time, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance will fully benefit from the relatively loose cash on hand, which can not only seize the opportunity of the land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. In the post crisis era after the pain, three main investment lines deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the pain period; Main line 2: more attention is paid to long-term business; Main line 3: value revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises. With the rapid turnover of the industry from alienation and the decline in growth rate, the structural differentiation intensifies. High-quality enterprises with strong product strength and brand reputation are expected to usher in value revaluation. In terms of individual stocks, we recommend Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : the end of this year and the beginning of next year or a better real estate investment time point
The end of this year and the beginning of next year may be a better investment time point. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the “policy bottom” of real estate may have initially appeared, and the central government continues to release favorable signals for real estate. Previously, it mainly focused on the mitigation of the capital pressure of real estate enterprises. However, at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 6, it was mentioned to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, Promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, pay attention to the core contradiction of sluggish sales and weak demand, and we are optimistic about the further loosening of the follow-up demand side policies.
2) It still takes time for all real estate entities to restore their market confidence. There is still downward pressure on the fundamentals of subsequent industries, and there is also pressure on the investment growth rate to continue to fall. Based on the large contribution of real estate to the national GDP and local finance, Q4 economic growth and local finance will face certain pressure, and the policy adjustment is expected to be further strengthened.
3) The three batches of centralized land auction can alleviate the short-term cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises and ensure the profit space of real estate enterprises, so as to moderately improve the participation of real estate enterprises by appropriately reducing the proportion of land deposit and the proportion of first payment, appropriately relaxing the payment period of land transfer fees, and moderately canceling the guidance price or house price restrictions, To some extent, it can solve one of the core contradictions of the low profit margin of the real estate industry.
We suggest to pay attention to: 1) development sector: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A, Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Property sector: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life, xinchengyue service and Baolong business. []
Capital Securities: from the perspective of capital cost and leverage focus on real estate enterprises with relatively stable finance
The bottom of the fundamentals remains to be confirmed, and the positive signal of the policy is obvious. At present, the wait-and-see sentiment in the housing market and the land market is dominant, and the superimposed real estate tax pilot expectation further aggravates the negative feedback effect. Therefore, it is feasible and necessary to resolve the further spread of risks through policy easing.
The recent political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference tend to be friendly towards real estate, and the follow-up relevant measures at the implementation level are expected to be effectively followed up within one quarter. For high-quality real estate enterprises, they have taken the lead in benefiting from the financing level recently. At the same time, the accelerated liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. In the future, the structure of real estate enterprises will also face a differentiation pattern. At present, there is still poor market expectation for the bottom rebound of profit margin. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable finance from the perspective of capital cost and leverage, Continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development. []
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : the current policy bottom is expected to be strengthened for 2022 real estate don’t be too pessimistic
In 2021, the real estate sector was impacted by too tight policy regulation, and the industry fundamental data were also in a downward period. However, the expectation of the bottom of the policy has been strengthened, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about 2022. At present, the industry valuation is still low, with strong performance certainty and high dividends, which deserves special attention. We mainly recommend leading real estate enterprises with strong performance certainty Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc. Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, Xuhui holding group, China Resources Land, China overseas development, green city China, etc. In addition, the property management industry has a broad development space, and the prosperity continues to improve. The relevant beneficiaries include country garden service, green city service, Xuhui Yongsheng life service, China Resources Vientiane life, etc. []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : since the fourth quarter, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair
The central bank set the tone of “two maintenance” at its meeting on September 24 and released doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; The real estate tax pilot is conducive to reducing the tax pressure on development and house purchase, and the house purchase restriction measures in the pilot areas are expected to be gradually withdrawn“ α The “risk” repair has entered the implementation stage; Since the fourth quarter, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair, and it is expected that development loans and mortgage loans will continue to pick up. This time, the central bank comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points and released long-term funds of 1.2 trillion yuan. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. We believe that the pessimistic expectations of the capital market for the real estate sector will be further alleviated, While reiterating that we are optimistic about the leading real estate enterprises with strong comprehensive strength, we believe that the release of funds from the comprehensive reduction of standards is marginally more favorable to the “leveraged and stable” private enterprise real estate. Highlight China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is recommended to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , rongchuang China, China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group, Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . []
