Today (December 15), the three major A-share indexes opened low. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the stock index quickly rose and then fell back. The whole market showed a pattern of repeated shocks in the morning. From the disk point of view, the light index and heavy stock market continued, the real estate industry chain targets such as cement, power and infrastructure strengthened in an all-round way, the coal, natural gas and other sectors also performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the rising momentum has slowed down, but the volume energy of the two cities is still sufficient, and the northward capital continues to flow in net. The market hot spots are obvious, and the overall atmosphere is still warm. It is expected that the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] power
Kaiyuan Securities said that under the expectation of cold winter, the coal consumption demand will rise rapidly this winter and next spring, and the terminal replenishment demand may continue to be strong throughout the peak season; On the supply side, with the implementation of nuclear capacity increase, the production area will accelerate the release of increment, and the supply tension will be alleviated. In terms of coal price, the national development and Reform Commission recently held a symposium to study and improve the coal price formation mechanism, stressed the great significance of establishing a coal price range regulation mechanism, guided the coal price to operate in a reasonable range, and made the coal price truly reflect the fundamentals of market supply and demand. It is expected that the intervention and regulation of coal prices by policies in the future will be continued, and it may be difficult for coal prices to rise or fall sharply. At the same time, we may pay more attention to the definition of a reasonable range. In addition, the national coal Fair will be held in early December, so we need to pay attention to the signing of the 2022 long-term association and the changes in the pricing mechanism of the long-term association.
Anxin Securities pointed out that the wind power industry has entered a new development cycle. With the rapid decline of costs and the continuous improvement of consumption, China's wind power installation center is expected to continue to move upward from 2022. At the same time, the acceleration of the large-scale process of wind turbines will drive the continuous optimization of the industrial chain pattern. It is suggested to focus on the tower link with the rapid increase of industry concentration, And submarine cable links with high barriers to entry.
Energy storage is a necessary part of global energy transformation. It is in the period of rapid introduction, and electrochemical energy storage has gradually become the mainstream. It is expected that the average annual compound growth rate of installed capacity will reach 80% + in the next five years, and the installed scale is expected to reach 200 GWH + in 2025. Driven by the supporting energy storage policy of new energy, it is expected that China's large-scale energy storage projects will usher in accelerated development. It is suggested to focus on thermal management, fire fighting and integrators with high profit and order fulfillment.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that under the background of "carbon neutrality", the power supply structure has ushered in deterministic changes, and the new energy operation industry dominated by wind power and photovoltaic will open up long-term growth space. In the long-term feast of new energy power generation investment, traditional power enterprises facing transformation will become important participants, and new energy will be built as the "second growth curve". Its significant advantages are the strong cash flow brought by thermal power basic plate, highly competitive financing cost and strong ability to obtain project resources. From the perspective of planning, the new energy installed capacity of several groups has a potential space of 4-5 times in five years. []
[Topic 2] cement
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) pointed out that cement is more likely to benefit from infrastructure recovery and loose real estate, and it is expected to usher in recovery next year: looking forward to next year, the logic supporting cement demand mainly includes: 1. The accelerated issuance of special bonds in the second half of this year is expected to form infrastructure demand in the first half of next year; 2. There will be great downward pressure on the economy next year, Infrastructure and real estate, as a manual tool to drive economic growth, are more likely to be relaxed in policy, and the central government has released easing signals for many times. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that the central economic work conference proposed to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. Infrastructure construction is "ahead of schedule" and cement demand is expected to improve; The meeting also proposed that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development, which should be unswervingly promoted. The carbon neutralization policy is conducive to further promote the energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimize the industry supply pattern and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries.
Looking forward to 2022, Ping An Securities believes that although infrastructure investment is expected to speed up under counter cyclical regulation, considering the central government's adherence to "real estate does not pierce the classics" and the recovery of market confidence, it is expected that the downward pressure on real estate investment will be greater, and the overall demand for cement will be weaker than that in 2021. However, considering the decline of coal price, the subsequent profit side is expected to improve. []
[Theme 3] architectural decoration
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) mentioned that, different from the continuous low expectation of infrastructure investment in the economic upward cycle in 2020, the current macro-economy has entered the downward cycle, and there is more policy space for the rebound of infrastructure investment. The central economic work conference proposed to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance, which laid the tone. From the financing arrangement of infrastructure investment in the past cycle, innovative funds often play an important role, such as special construction bonds. Due to the short-term constraints of land transfer fees in this round of infrastructure, new types of funds may be the decisive factor for the rebound of infrastructure investment. From the current stage of infrastructure investment cycle, the newly signed orders and investment scale are still in a downward state in the short term, while the policy is gradually entering a warm-up period, waiting for the rebound of orders and the introduction of financing portfolio.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that green low-carbon buildings are encouraged by policies and have great development potential in the future. The 14th five year plan proposes to vigorously develop green buildings, "carbon neutralization" and "carbon peak" have become the focus, and the carbon emission reduction project is expected to usher in high growth. The national energy administration proposed that the total scale of pumped storage put into operation in the 14th five year plan will double that in the 13th five year plan, reaching more than 62 million KW; During the Tenth Five Year Plan period, it will be doubled again to reach about 120 million kilowatts by 2030, and there is great room for the development of pumped storage. In June 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on submitting the pilot scheme for roof photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district), and carried out the pilot work of promoting roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district). There are 676 pilots in China, and BIPV will usher in rapid development during the "14th five year plan". Prefabricated building can greatly improve construction efficiency and reduce building pollution. It is the development direction of green building. The prefabricated steel structure is encouraged by the policy. At present, the penetration rate is low and has great development potential in the future.
The agency further analyzed that the concentration of the construction industry has increased, the performance has increased rapidly, the valuation is at a historical low, and the price of raw materials is expected to fall, thus thickening the performance. Recommend infrastructure central enterprises, green low-carbon buildings, etc. The market share of new orders signed by the eight central construction enterprises increased from 24.38% in 2013 to 34.49% in 2020, and Q3 further increased to 39.44% in 2021. The leader has great advantages in capital and channels, and is expected to continue the pattern of the strong and the strong. The valuation of the construction industry is in the 0.19% quantile of the past 18 years, the lowest in the primary industry, and the safety margin is high. In 2022, infrastructure leaders and green low-carbon buildings are recommended. []
[Topic 4] coal
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that since mid October, coal price supervision and intervention policies are still advancing, putting pressure on market sentiment. However, judging from the current coal price expectation, Q4 and next year's performance of coal enterprises are still expected to remain high. With the gradual implementation of the policy, the market's negative expectation or basic digestion of price limit, the marginal relaxation of the policy of the real estate industry chain, the further release of demand in the peak season in December and the expectation of dividends from leading enterprises all contribute to the recovery of market sentiment, which is expected to become a catalyst for valuation repair after the sharp decline of the coal sector.
Kaiyuan Securities said that under the expectation of cold winter, the coal consumption demand will rise rapidly this winter and next spring, and the terminal replenishment demand may continue to be strong throughout the peak season; On the supply side, with the implementation of nuclear capacity increase, the production area will accelerate the release of increment, and the supply tension will be alleviated. In terms of coal price, the national development and Reform Commission recently held a symposium to study and improve the coal price formation mechanism, stressed the great significance of establishing a coal price range regulation mechanism, guided the coal price to operate in a reasonable range, and made the coal price truly reflect the fundamentals of market supply and demand. It is expected that the intervention and regulation of coal prices by policies in the future will be continued, and it may be difficult for coal prices to rise or fall sharply. At the same time, we may pay more attention to the definition of a reasonable range. In addition, the national coal Fair will be held in early December, so we need to pay attention to the signing of the 2022 long-term association and the changes in the pricing mechanism of the long-term association.
The agency further mentioned that at present, coal stocks are basically at the bottom. With the stabilization of coal price correction policy, the risk factors of pit mouth exceeding the expected price limit in the early stage have been basically released. Coal stocks will return to the main investment line supported by performance, and the characteristics of undervaluation on the basis of stable performance are highlighted again. At the same time, under the background of double carbon, coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, Under the expectation of medium and long-term tight supply normalization, the value of coal enterprises needs to be revalued. We are still optimistic about investment opportunities in coal stocks.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the first batch of medium and long-term contracts signed in 2022 coal fair exceeded 260 million tons. Shanxi has carried out medium and long-term contract signing, and there is a great possibility of raising the benchmark price. This coal price increase may also accelerate the market-oriented reform of electricity price, and the overall profitability of coal enterprises will be improved in the future. In the short term, we believe that the policy regulation risk, coal price adjustment risk and real estate demand side decline risk of the coal sector are fully released, and we are optimistic about the rebound of the sector. []
