On March 1, 26 fund companies jointly investigated pig raising enterprises Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , and paid attention to pig production capacity layout and other related issues; Similarly, in the pig breeding industry, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) also welcomed hundreds of institutional research including 74 fund companies last week; In addition, enterprises such as Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) and Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) have been focused by the fund company.
The reporter of the daily economic news learned from the Chinese commercial reserve commodity management center Co., Ltd., which is responsible for the collection and storage of central frozen pork, that the first batch of collection and storage in 2022 will be started from March 3 to 4, with a total of 40000 tons.
Some analysts pointed out that the pig price after the start of previous collection and storage is expected to rebound slightly, which can also help relevant enterprises clear their production capacity, which is a good thing for the pig breeding industry, which is currently at a huge loss.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said in the survey that it is optimistic that the pig price may enter the upward channel of the next cycle after the third quarter of 2022.
pig breeding industry resurgence research hot
Since July 2020, pork prices have continued to callback, and the whole pig breeding industry has entered a new round of downward channel of pig cycle. With the increase of slaughter volume, pork prices have continued to be under pressure, and the cost of pig breeding enterprises has gradually increased.
According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, on February 28, the average price of pork in the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market was 18.54 yuan / kg, down 0.5% from last Friday and 52.56% from the same period last year. At present, the latest price is close to the low point in October last year.
At the same time, enterprises in the industry continued to suffer losses. Statistics show that as of March 1, more than 25 A-share listed companies have released performance forecasts among those that have arranged pig breeding, production and processing. Judging from the results, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) is expected to lose 18.2 billion yuan in 2021 and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) is expected to lose 13.337 billion yuan. In addition, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) and other expected losses are also more than 1 billion yuan.
It should be noted that the stock price performance of the secondary market has not been greatly affected. The reporter of "daily economic news" found that Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) march 1 raised the limit, and Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) also increased by more than 10% in the last five trading days Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) and others have also increased significantly in the near future.
On the one hand, the stock price continued to rise, which was significantly different from the company's recent performance; On the other hand, the institution has also conducted rapid research on relevant enterprises in the near future, and the public funds are relatively active. In the near future, it has conducted research on Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
On March 1, 26 fund companies jointly investigated Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , paying attention to pig production capacity layout and other related issues; Similarly, in the pig breeding industry, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) also welcomed hundreds of institutional research including 74 fund companies last week; In addition, enterprises such as Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) and Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) have been focused by the fund company.
Some analysts pointed out that the reason for the confidence given by the outside world to the pig breeding sector may be the possible price rise in the near future. With the improvement of the profitability of relevant enterprises, the allocation value of such targets, which are already at a relatively low level, is highlighted.
The reporter of the daily economic news saw in the actual record of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) research that the company said that it is preliminarily expected that the pig price will remain at a low position in the first half of 2022 and the deregulation of industrial capacity will be accelerated. It is optimistically estimated that after the third quarter of 2022, pig prices may enter the upward channel of the next cycle; It is pessimistic to estimate that 2022 is still at the social average breakeven line, and it may take 2023 to enter the upward channel of the next cycle.
expected to clear the enterprise's stock capacity
In fact, there is another reason to boost the momentum of the pig breeding sector, that is, the first batch of collection and storage work will begin in 2022. At that time, it may be expected to clear the stock capacity of enterprises, which will play a positive role in the regulation of market prices. Statistics show that as of March 1, the food processing and meat index had risen 3.8% in February.
According to the notice of the central reserve frozen pork storage plan, the collection and storage of frozen pork is specifically operated by Huashang reserve commodity management center Co., Ltd. according to the plan of the operation unit, 40000 tons will be collected and stored in two times on March 3 and 4.
Some industry analysts said that the price of pork is expected to rebound slightly after the start of pork collection and storage. From the historical data, there were four pork collection and storage starts in 2021, and each opening was accompanied by the rise of pork price in the market. According to the statistics, on October 11, 2021, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.89 yuan per kilogram, which was at the beginning of collection and storage. One month later, Pork prices rose to 24 yuan / kg, an increase of 34.15%.
In parallel with the rise in pork prices, the food processing and meat index in the secondary market increased by about 3.81% in the same period, which is a long rebound after the index hit the bottom in September last year. With the opening of this collection and storage work, the improvement of the company's operation and the rebound of stock price are expected to continue to attract the research and evaluation of the above-mentioned institutions.
In fact, since February, the action of institutional warehousing and breeding sector has not stopped. From the weekly capital dynamic observation of breeding ETF, it has shown a net inflow every week in the past three weeks. From the first week of February 7, the net inflow was 202 million yuan, 526 million yuan and 222 million yuan respectively. By the end of last year, the top ten heavy positions of the ETF included Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) and other pig breeding related enterprises.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) research report believes that considering that the feed costs of corn and soybean meal remained high in the first half of the year, the capacity of the industry may be accelerated under deep losses, or the industry took the initiative to eliminate sows with offspring in the second quarter, the price of eliminated sows is expected to reach a new low, and the expectation of a new round of cycle reversal is continuously strengthened.
