In February this year, the overall downturn of the real estate market, the sales decline of real estate enterprises expanded, and the transaction situation continued to turn cold. In order to guide the market to restore confidence, several second and third tier cities recently launched policies such as “reducing down payment” to stimulate the demand for house purchase.
in 2 months, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased both month on month, and the decline was greater than that in the same period of previous years according to Kerui research statistics, in February, the top 100 real estate enterprises in the industry realized a sales trading amount of 401.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.5% month on month, 47.2% year-on-year, more than 10 percentage points larger than that in January, and 56.5% lower than the average level in 2021.
Specifically, from January to February this year, the top ten real estate enterprises were country garden, Vanke, rongchuang, poly, CNOOC, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Resources Land, Jindi, Lvcheng and Longhu. Compared with the same period last year, Evergrande and Jinmao were out of the top ten, and green city and Longhu entered the list.
at present, among the top ten real estate enterprises, only country garden and Vanke announced the sales data in February country garden achieved contract sales of about 32.76 billion yuan, down 29.62% year-on-year and 9.9% month on month; The contracted sales construction area was about 4.48 million square meters, down 14.82% year-on-year and 3% month on month. Vanke achieved a contract sales amount of 29.37 billion yuan, down 34.96% and 17.5% respectively on a month on month basis; The contracted sales area was 1.852 million square meters, down 32.95% and 12% respectively on a month on month basis.
the sales situation of real estate enterprises of different sizes is not optimistic, which directly leads to the reduction of the sales threshold of each camp according to the data of China Index Research Institute, the sales threshold of top 10 real estate enterprises from January to February this year was 20.04 billion yuan, compared with 40.3 billion yuan in the same period last year; The sales thresholds of top30, Top50 and Top100 real estate enterprises were 10.05 billion yuan, 6.26 billion yuan and 2.09 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 40% – 55%.
in addition, due to the cooling of the market, the transaction volume in February also hit a new low in recent years Kerui 28 key monitoring cities saw a 32% month on month decrease in transaction area and a 35% year-on-year decrease. Among them, the supply of four first tier cities fell again, and the transactions fell across the board, down 25% and 42% respectively on the same and month on month basis. However, the situation in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen has been differentiated. Due to the sharp reduction of supply by real estate enterprises, Shenzhen is almost out of supply, while the inertia of Shanghai market continues, and the price limit in the core area can still achieve “sunshine”.
The markets of 24 second – and third tier cities continued to turn cold, and the turnover decreased by 37% and 29% respectively on the same and month on month basis. Specifically, the real estate markets in Suzhou, Hangzhou and other places were almost shut down, and the transactions were all at a record low; The downward pressure on Nanning, Dongguan and other markets intensified, with a year-on-year decline of more than 70%; The market of some second tier cities such as Xi’an and Nanjing has warmed up.
According to the views of several research institutions, the market downturn in February was due to multiple factors, such as lack of industry confidence, strong wait-and-see mood of home buyers, less than expected return home ownership, epidemic situation in some areas and Spring Festival holidays. Among them, Kerry research pointed out that although there is a trend of easing and improvement in the current policy, the downward pressure on the market is still large in the short term, and it remains to be seen whether the market can recover in March and April.
Recently, many places have deregulated the property market. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, since mid January, a total of 15 provinces, cities or regions have reduced the down payment ratio of house purchase according to the local rigid demand or improved demand.
Overall, this round of “deregulation” signals appeared in second and third tier cities. For example, Zhengzhou relaxed purchase and loan restrictions, some banks in Chongqing, Heze, Shandong and Ganzhou, Jiangxi reduced the down payment ratio of commercial loans for first homes to 20%, and Nanning, Guangxi and Jinzhong, Shanxi reduced the down payment ratio of provident fund loans for second homes to 30% and 20% respectively.
In fact, this round of regulation and control policies has continued since the end of last year. At that time, there were “rescue” signals in many cities. Specific measures include providing house purchase subsidies, deed tax subsidies and increasing the introduction of talents. Recently, Jilin Yanji has also subsidized the deed tax in full for farmers to buy houses in cities, and issued consumption vouchers for household appliances and decoration; Yunnan and Shaoxing, Jiangsu, launched talent introduction plans. Yunnan gave up to 1 million yuan of living subsidies to talents, and Shaoxing set a “zero threshold” for college graduates.
For this round of regulation and control policies, Kerui research believes that its main purpose is to stabilize and guide the restoration of market confidence, so as to further promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. In the short term, the main tone of industrial policy regulation will not change, the real estate market is still facing great downward pressure, and the overall sales scale of the industry will remain stable.
