The first city in China to fully deregulate “housing and loan recognition” has come.
On March 1, Zhengzhou Municipal People’s government issued the notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry (hereinafter referred to as the “notice”), in which 19 multi-dimensional and strong policies, including deregulation of “housing and loan recognition”, increase and price reduction of housing loans, and loan support to real estate enterprises, launched the “first shot” of deregulation of real estate policies in second tier cities.
At the same time, the reporter also learned that in Nanchang, Nantong and other places without purchase restrictions, some banks also implement the 20% down payment policy for the first set of housing loans.
According to the data monitoring of China Index, since 2022, more than 40 cities across the country have relaxed the real estate regulation policies in terms of reducing the proportion of down payment, increasing talent introduction, issuing house purchase subsidies and increasing the amount of provident fund loans.
Reasonable housing demand will be further released. The industry believes that the policy of Zhengzhou may become a “signal sign” to observe this round of real estate regulation and control policy adjustment. In the future, not only the third and fourth tier cities, but also more second tier cities will follow the favorable policies of entering and leaving Taiwan.
real estate market in Zhengzhou after the New Deal: owners of existing buildings and second-hand houses smell the rise in prices
On the evening of March 1, Zhengzhou’s 19 “rescue” policies came, which brought confidence to the long silent real estate market.
In the new deal of Zhengzhou real estate market, the deregulation of “recognizing both houses and loans” has undoubtedly become the most representative symbol of this time. So, after the release of the new deal, what is the reaction of Zhengzhou property market?
On March 2, the reporter learned from the interview that many local developers have displayed the slogan of “good policies, get on the bus as soon as possible”, and some real estate and second-hand housing owners have quietly raised prices.
On the morning of March 2, the reporter saw in the sales department near the South Third Ring Road, Erqi District, Zhengzhou that there were 3-4 groups of house watchers in the hall. Although there were few house watchers, the sales staff of the real estate said that the house price had been slowly raised recently.
“After the new deal came out last night, the group raised the price overnight,” the sales staff said. At present, the average price of each suite has been increased by 2 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 000 yuan, “shared equally to each square meter, in fact, the increase is not big.” It is understood that the real estate on sale is mainly 75 ㎡ – 135 ㎡ houses, and the overall average price is 1200014000 / m2.
“After the release of the new deal, the company held a meeting overnight to discuss how to promote sales according to the favorable policies.” Zhang Ming (a pseudonym), who is in charge of marketing planning of a real estate enterprise in Zhengzhou, told the Shanghai Securities News that the discussion lasted until late into the night. The final strategy was to hold the price rise temporarily and keep the original preferential policies unchanged. Zhang Ming said that the new deal did awesome, but the actual effect needed market test, and now we must calm down.
In addition, at the site of the evergreen Dongfeng Chenyuan project in Jinshui District, Zhengzhou, the reporter became the only group of visitors to the building. According to the on-site salesperson, the real estate is at the end of sales, and there are still more than a dozen houses on sale. The average price of the real estate is about 22000 yuan / square meter.
For the impact of the new deal, the salesperson said that at present, the market is still in the stage of policy digestion. It is expected that there will be significant changes in house watchers in the first weekend or small and long holiday after the announcement of the new deal, the speed of real estate removal may be accelerated, and the price may rise slightly in the later stage.
how does the new deal of Zhengzhou real estate market affect the second-hand housing market
The person in charge of a store in Zhengdong New Area admitted that the new deal boosted the confidence of the whole real estate market, but in the actual operation process, some sellers were overconfident in the market.
“The original transaction price of 3.5 million has been negotiated, but this morning, the homeowner suddenly increased the price, and it took 3.7 million to clinch a deal.” The person in charge said that after the official announcement of the new deal, there have been many “price jumps” in stores.
cancel “house and loan recognition”
One of the “biggest moves” in the notice is that families who have a house and have settled the loan can implement the first house loan policy. This policy directly opened the precedent of this round of deregulation of “recognizing both houses and loans”.
At the same time, further liberalize the purchase restriction threshold. The notice points out that children and close relatives who work and live in Zhengzhou are allowed to join their families and buy a new set of housing.
“This actually reduces the purchase restriction threshold in Zhengzhou.” Liang Botao said that this means that foreign registered permanent residence families working and living in Zhengzhou can buy up to two suites if they have foreign relatives to join their relatives for the elderly; If you are a family with local registered permanent residence in Zhengzhou and have relatives from other places to support the elderly, you can buy up to three suites.
Moreover, the policy also guides financial institutions to increase the investment of individual housing mortgage loans and reduce housing loan interest rates. For families who own a house and have settled the corresponding house purchase loans, in order to improve their living conditions and apply for loans again to buy ordinary commercial houses, banking financial institutions implement the first house loan policy.
This series of policy combinations means that many families will have the opportunity to enjoy the low down payment and preferential interest rate of the first house when they buy the second and third houses in Zhengzhou.
However, Bank Of China Limited(601988) a customer manager of a branch in Zhengzhou told reporters that at present, the interest rate and the down payment ratio of housing loans have not changed, and the down payment of the first set of housing loans is still 30%. “We are formulating a new housing loan policy, which is expected to be implemented in recent days.”
point of view: the purpose of the policy is to “stabilize” and “housing without speculation” is still the bottom line
For the situation that many real estate enterprises and homeowners raised house prices on the first day of the new deal, some insiders said that the purpose of the deregulation of Zhengzhou real estate market is to “stabilize” rather than guide a new round of rise, “housing without speculation” is still the bottom line.
As the provincial capital, Zhengzhou has always been a restricted city.
Liang Botao, general manager of Zhengzhou branch of China Index Research Institute, told reporters that the purchase restriction areas in Zhengzhou include eight districts in the city, port area, Xinzheng City, Xingyang city and Zhongmou county. At present, households with registered permanent residence in Zhengzhou can buy two houses, one for singles and one for foreign registered permanent residence.
A senior executive of a real estate enterprise in China told the Shanghai Securities News that the 19 new real estate policies issued by Zhengzhou have the significance of wind vane, the content of the policy is relatively complete and the strength is also large. For most developers, they still hope to realize the return of funds through rapid sales, and the new deal will certainly play a positive role in promoting the sales of real estate enterprises.
“Of course, it will take some time. There is a process. The recovery of the land market should be later than that of the sales of real estate enterprises.” The source said that the introduction of the new real estate policy in Zhengzhou is also to maintain stability to some extent. It is not ruled out that other cities will introduce similar policies in the future, but there may be some differences in scope and strength.
Some insiders said that with the deregulation of the policy, house prices may rise slightly, but the recovery of China’s real estate market in 2022 is no longer a signal of the overall rise of house prices.
“Some claims of price increases may be the marketing strategy of developers. The purpose is to attract more waiting customers and seize the time to buy and Book houses.” The source said that “housing without speculation” is still the bottom line, and real estate will also return to the basic livelihood industry. Speculation in the property market is bound to encounter various curbs.
it is expected that more cities will introduce favorable policies
This round of Zhengzhou’s property market policy means that the policy supports a higher level.
“The adjustment of Zhengzhou policy is a government action, and the policy regulation is very strong.” Dong Miao, chief researcher of Fudan University, said that although the proportion of down payment policy of Fudan University had been adjusted, ximiao and other financial research institutes had only adjusted the proportion of down payment policy. Recently, some banks in many third – and fourth tier cities have cut mortgage interest rates and down payment percentages, which are also market behavior.
Liu Xiaobo, a well-known financial commentator, also told reporters that although Harbin had previously adjusted its property market policies in second tier cities, including subsidies for talent education and purchase of houses, and raising the housing age of provident fund loans to 30 years, it was not as strong as Zhengzhou.
As an important provincial capital city, Zhengzhou’s deregulation of the property market will have a certain demonstration effect. Chen Wenjing, market research director of index division of China Index Research Institute, told reporters that more cities are expected to follow up in the future, especially those with weak fundamentals and great pressure on market adjustment.
The industry believes that in the future, more and more cities, including second tier and third and fourth tier cities, will follow the practice of Zhengzhou.
“There are many cities with the same cold property market as Zhengzhou, such as Jinan, Qingdao, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan and so on.” Liu Xiaobo said that the current real estate regulation is a bit similar to that in 2015. Local governments have successively issued policies and intensified their efforts. However, he believes that it is unlikely to fully introduce the “de Stocking” policy as in 2016.
Recently, many favorable policies have been released. Has the property market warmed up?
Yang Kan, an analyst at Ping An Securities, said that although the mortgage interest rate in key cities has continued to fall since its peak in September 2021, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises fell by more than 40% year-on-year in February this year, the average daily transaction in 50 cities fell by 24.7% month on month, and the transaction in the real estate market has not improved temporarily.
real estate market tends to be stable and better
According to the report released by the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, with the release of the effects of various easing policies, the real estate market in 31 provinces across the country has a trend of stabilization and improvement.
According to the latest report of China Index Research Institute, the data of new and second-hand houses in 100 cities across the country show that in February 2022, the average price of new houses in 100 cities was 16184 yuan / m2, and the price of new houses ended the trend of three consecutive declines, rising by 0.03% month on month; It rose 1.89% year-on-year, 0.17 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The average price of second-hand houses in Baicheng was 16009 yuan / square meter. The price of second-hand houses ended the four consecutive declines, with a month on month increase of 0.14%; It rose 2.72% year-on-year, 0.14 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
Meng Xinxin, an analyst at the index division of China Index Research Institute, told reporters that the pace of “implementing policies for cities” is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the transaction scale will rise month on month in March. However, based on the high base in the same period last year, the year-on-year probability of transaction scale is still declining. But at the same time, it should be noted that the market recovery rhythm of hot first and second tier cities may be relatively fast.
stable investment continues to increase
Recently, many key projects have been intensively started. On March 1, 140 key projects in Qinhuangdao were intensively started; On February 28, the spring 2022 projects in Jilin Province (678 projects with more than 50 million yuan) were intensively started; Chengdu, Sichuan, recently said that 194 major projects will be implemented this year
Various signals show that a good start to investment in the first quarter is in sight.
“Steady growth in 2022 is a very clear policy tone and an important main line of macroeconomic and capital market pricing.” Zhou Junzhi, chief Macro Analyst of Minsheng securities, said.
“Infrastructure investment has rebounded since December last year. Since then, the trend of infrastructure repair has continued. At present, the resumption of infrastructure is in good condition.” According to Zhou Junzhi’s analysis, the infrastructure investment in November last year was – 7% year-on-year, and it was repaired to 4% in December. The chain improvement was very obvious. The data have confirmed that infrastructure investment is still in the process of repair since January this year.
The good start of investment also makes big investors optimistic about the investment opportunities it brings to A-share related sectors. Recently, Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, said that this year’s three major investment priorities: new and old infrastructure, real estate correction and consumption stabilization.
Han Qicheng, an Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) analyst, believes that the recent 4% decline in the construction index is mainly due to the fact that the vacuum period of policy data is dragged down by peripheral risk events. The weather warmed in March and entered the peak construction season, and the performance orders of infrastructure investment will be better than expected. Moreover, the construction growth, valuation and configuration are still at historical lows, and it is expected to meet the main upsurge of performance exceeding expectations in the peak season of March.
“In 2022, the economic work will be stable. Under the policy requirements of increasing the cross cycle regulation of macro policies, moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure investment, and the coordination and linkage of fiscal and monetary policies, infrastructure has become the main focus of steady growth.” Sheng Changsheng also believes that the policy margin of the real estate industry continues to improve, or is approaching the bottom of the policy, superimposing structural opportunities such as affordable housing, and is optimistic about the gradual repair of the sector.
