On March 2, the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine continued to affect the market trend. Hong Kong stocks fell sharply again, with the Hang Seng index falling 1.84% and 417 points to 22343 points, refreshing the low price of the stage again. The Hang Seng technology index fell 2.71% to 5015 points, continuing to hit a record low. The national index fell 1.8% to 7908 points. Today, the southward capital bucked the trend, with a net inflow of HK $3.181 billion and a large market turnover of HK $114.6 billion.
On the disk, photovoltaic stocks, Hong Kong banking stocks, interior housing stocks and property management stocks all fell sharply, and popular sectors such as large financial stocks, pharmaceutical stocks, automobile stocks, heavy machinery stocks, electric power stocks and education fell one after another; Weight technology stocks varied, Baidu rose nearly 7%, the US group rose by 1%, Kwai fell nearly 9%, and Tencent fell nearly 2%. On the other hand, the war between Russia and Ukraine affected the supply of commodities. Nonferrous metal stocks such as oil, coal and gold rose against the trend. Yanmei Australia soared nearly 49%, a record high, and performed prominently in the weak market.
Domestic housing stocks rose at the opening, and then the trend was sluggish. Longguang group fell more than 13%, Yuzhou group fell more than 9%, Hejing Taifu and Xuhui holdings fell more than 8%, Shimao Group and country garden fell more than 7%, rongchuang China, Zhengrong real estate and China Olympic Park fell more than 5%.
In terms of news, according to the financial Associated Press, in response to the market news that HUAFA, country garden, Longguang and other four real estate enterprises were investigated for debt risk and required to report the relevant debt situation, a person close to country garden said that he did not know the situation of other companies, but the information about the company was false and had been reported to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Zhengzhou property market issued 19 new policies to “rescue the market”, guiding financial institutions to increase housing loans and reduce loan interest rates. At the same time, according to the demand for two sets of houses, the relevant provisions of “recognizing both houses and loans” have been cancelled Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the policy has a demonstration effect, a more intensive policy window is about to open, the sales of the real estate market will reach the bottom in March 2022, and the investment confidence of development enterprises is expected to gradually recover in the second quarter.
Property management unit followed the weakness. Jianfa property fell by more than 14%, Zhongjun business fell by more than 7%, Aoyuan health and Country Garden Services fell by more than 6%, elegant life services, moral education 5% and Shimao services.
Hong Kong banking stocks fell. Standard Chartered Bank fell more than 6%, HSBC Holdings fell more than 5%, BOC Hong Kong fell more than 4%, Bank of East Asia fell more than 3%, Hang Seng Bank and Daxin Bank fell more than 2%.
Sources said that Hong Kong will report more than 50000 new confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia on Wednesday. In addition, due to the confirmed infection of covid-19 virus by staff, the services of 14 branches of HSBC and 8 branches of Bank of East Asia will be suspended from today (2).
In addition, according to CME’s “fed observation”: the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 99.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 0%. Before that, the market was almost completely priced. The Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points in March. After the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the market has completely abandoned this expectation.
Photovoltaic stocks weakened collectively. Xinyi Glass fell more than 10%, Xinyi solar energy fell more than 6%, and Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) fell more than 5%. Xinte energy, sunshine energy, rainbow new energy and Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) glass followed.
Citigroup research report said that considering the recent development of the mainland real estate market, it believed that the prospect of the average selling price of float glass was weak. Accordingly, the net profit forecast of Xinyi Glass from 2022 to 2024 was reduced by 6%, maintaining the “buy” rating, and the target price was reduced from HK $41.3 to HK $33.8.
Apple concept stocks led the decline. Shunyu optics fell more than 8%, fuzhikang and Ruisheng technology fell more than 5%, Qiu Ti technology and Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics fell more than 4%.
On the news, on March 1 local time, apple issued a statement saying it would suspend the sales of Apple products in Russia and restrict Apple’s payment function. In addition, today’s apps of Russia and satellite news agency have also been deleted from Apple App Stores outside Russia.
The trend of technology stocks is divided. Baidu rose more than 6%, meituan and Wanguo data rose more than 1%, and Alibaba and Xiaomi rose slightly. The Kwai’s lost 8%, and the beep dropped more than 4%. Jingdong health and NetEase fell more than 3%. Tencent and JD fell slightly.
Baidu Q4 performance, revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the revenue was 33.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year, with an estimated 32.23 billion yuan; In the fourth quarter, the adjusted operating profit was 4.31 billion yuan, with an estimated 2.88 billion yuan. In December 2021, the monthly activity of Baidu app reached 622 million, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Xiaomo’s latest research report said that Baidu’s Q4 performance beat expectations, mainly benefited from good operating expenditure control, and said that the weakness of online advertising has been reflected, giving Hong Kong stocks a target price of HK $250.
In addition, meituan takeout released a number of support measures for small and medium-sized merchants yesterday. According to an article in the economic daily, the Commission was reduced to the top of 5% – this is a “help each other in the same boat” ticket sent by meituan, a takeout platform, to catering merchants with difficulties on the platform. There is no doubt that the Commission reduction for about 1 million difficult merchants during the year will put some pressure on meituan’s operation this year, but the pressure is controllable. I believe meituan must have calculated the long-term economic account. As meituan said, catering merchants are the root of the development of meituan takeout. Only when merchants prosper can the market prosper.
Gasoline stocks bucked the trend. China oil and Gas Holdings rose more than 4%, CNOOC and PetroChina rose more than 3%, and PetroChina and CNOOC oil fields rose more than 2%.
On the news front, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $110 / barrel, OPEC + production is hopeless, Russian supply interruption concerns and the poor progress of Iran nuclear negotiations have exacerbated the market’s concerns about the shortage of crude oil supply.
Coal stocks were active. Yanmei Australia rose more than 48%, Yankuang energy and nangobi rose more than 4%, followed by China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , jiubangda energy and Mongolian coking coal.
On the news, German Economy Minister Robert habeck said that the use of coal may be expanded in the future to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas. UBS issued a report estimating that the performance of resource stocks will fluctuate in the next few weeks. The war between Russia and Ukraine will interrupt the supply of goods during the war, sanctions and the expulsion of Russian banks from swift.
In terms of stock changes, Rusal continued to plummet by 26% to HK $3.47/share, with a total market value of HK $52.7 billion. It fell 47% this week, almost halving. On the news front, Rusal announced yesterday that due to the inevitable logistics and transportation challenges in the Black Sea and surrounding areas, it had to temporarily close the production of Nikolaev alumina refinery in Nikolaev region of Ukraine Wang Rong, chief researcher of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) futures nonferrous metals and precious metals, recently analyzed that whether the United States will impose subsequent sanctions on Russia, especially Rusal, is a major concern. If sanctions are imposed on Rusal as expected, we believe that whether the trade circulation of Rusal sources is limited, LME cancels the registration qualification of Rusal brand, or the further deterioration of the European energy crisis, these will point to one point, that is, the problem of global aluminum supply.
Nongnongshan spring fell 9% to HK $44.8 per share, with a total market value of HK $503.8 billion.
In terms of southward funds, the net inflow of southward funds was HK $3.181 billion. Among them, Hong Kong stock connect (Shanghai) had a net inflow of HK $999 million and Hong Kong stock connect (Shenzhen) had a net inflow of HK $2.182 billion.
Looking forward to the future, Haitong International believes that at present, the long-term investment value of Hong Kong stocks is prominent, and two types of opportunities can be paid attention to: 1) main line opportunities of science and technology. For Hong Kong stocks, hard technology industries such as semiconductors, consumer electronics and new energy vehicles have a high prosperity and high investment value. 2) Investment value of high dividend assets. For long-term funds, high dividend assets such as financial real estate have a thick safety cushion, and Hong Kong stock financial real estate has a large discount compared with a shares.
