Recent core ideas:
From the perspective of the industry, the recent policy warm wind blows frequently. We believe that we should strengthen our confidence at this time: ① “stability” is the core demand. We should not expect to achieve it in one step, but the direction is more important. ② The short-term problem is a fact, but it has been digested by the market, not to mention the dawn. ③ Promotion of sales boom + rational “gold combination” of land market
It is expected that the profit level of the industry will improve, and the high-quality real estate enterprises will return to growth. Alpha resonates with beta.
From the perspective of individual stocks, in the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit; In addition, Wuguan leading companies are expected to benefit from the lifting of real estate repression in the future, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Sales: the decline was further expanded, and the prosperity remained in the doldrums
From the perspective of cities, in February 2022, there will be 300 cities in a single month, and the residential sales area in a single month will be 21.14 million m2, with a chain comparison of – 35% and a year-on-year comparison of – 49%; This year, the total residential sales area of 300 cities was 53.75 million m2, a year-on-year increase of – 45%.
From the perspective of real estate enterprises, the full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in February 2022 was 463.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 47%. The total full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in this year was 1048.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 43%.
Land acquisition: the land market is still bleak, and the transaction premium rate is still low. In February 2022, the transaction construction area of residential land in 300 cities in a single month was 21.51 million m2, with a month on month ratio of – 59% and a year-on-year ratio of – 74%; In this year, a total of 300 residential land transactions and construction areas were 73.87 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 64%. In February 2022, the transaction premium rate of residential land in 300 cities in the current month was 4.3%, which remained at a low level.
Financing: the total amount of debt financing of real estate enterprises and the issuance of real estate trusts decreased month on month. In February 2022, the total amount of bonds issued by real estate enterprises was 33.3 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 30%. The total scale of the whole year was 80.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 63%. In February 2022, the real estate trust issued 11.1 billion yuan in a single month, a month on month increase of – 1%. The total scale of the whole year was 22.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 79%.
Important events:
① Zhengzhou, Henan Province issued a notice to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry; Second, Shanxi Jinzhong adjusts the housing provident fund individual housing loan policy; ③ Jilin Yanji issued the implementation plan of preferential subsidies to encourage farmers to buy houses in cities; ④ Shanghai Jinshan District has released the “Shanghai Bay Area” talent plan, and the house purchase subsidy is increased from one grade to three grades, with a maximum subsidy of 2 million yuan; ⑤ Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, gives room ticket subsidies to imported talents; ⑥ Nanxun District, Huzhou, Zhejiang Province issued the implementation measures for the reward of talents’ house purchase tickets in Nanxun District of “Dream Park New Jiangnan talent gathering new home”; ⑦ Zhejiang has fully liberalized the restrictions on the settlement of graduates with college degree or above outside the urban area of Hangzhou; ⑧ The first batch of centralized land supply in Beijing ended in 2022, with a collection of 48 billion yuan; ⑨ In 2022, Shanghai launched the first batch of 40 homesteads, with a total starting price of 85.1 billion yuan; ⑩ In 2022, Hebei plans to invest 43.6 billion yuan in shed reform and 7.6 billion yuan in affordable rental housing;
\u3000\u3000？ Hainan Haikou will further strengthen the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds;
\u3000\u3000？ Guangzhou issued the draft of the measures for the identification of indemnificatory rental housing projects;
\u3000\u3000？ The Ministry of housing and urban rural development reiterated to maintain the stable operation of the real estate market and the continuity and stability of regulatory policies.
Risk tips: 1. The policy is tightened more than expected; 2. The fundamentals of the industry went down more than expected; 3. The credit risk event of real estate enterprises exceeded the expected impact.
