The sales volume data of new forces was released in February 2022, and the sales volume fell month on month: 1) in February, the sales volume of Xiaopeng automobile increased by 180% year on year / decreased by 52% month on month to 6255 vehicles; The sales volume of P5 vehicles decreased by about 37% year-on-year to 357% year-on-year (accounting for about 37% year-on-year growth of 2053gi vehicles), accounting for about 37% year-on-year decrease (accounting for about 37% month on month growth of 2053gi vehicles). 2) In February, ideal car sales increased by 72% year-on-year / decreased by 31% month on month to 8414 vehicles. 3) In February, the sales volume of Weilai automobile increased by 10% year-on-year / decreased by 36% month on month to 6131 vehicles; Among them, ES6 increased by 49% year-on-year / decreased by 37% month on month to 3309 vehicles (accounting for about 54%), es8 decreased by 18% / 29% month on month to 1084 vehicles (accounting for about 18%), and ec6 decreased by 15% / 40% month on month to 1738 vehicles (accounting for about 28%).
Spring Festival factors and superimposed shutdown of some factories affect the sales performance in February, and we expect the sales volume to climb in March: we judge that the sales volume of new forces decreased month on month in February, which is in line with the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of the car market and the influence of Spring Festival factors; Among them, the performance of Xiaopeng / Weilai was lower than ideal, which was mainly due to the production line adjustment and technical upgrading of Xiaopeng Zhaoqing factory / Weilai Jianghuai manufacturing factory during the Spring Festival, which affected the rhythm of mass production and delivery. At present, the delivery cycle of new forces is about 5-9 weeks; Among them, Weilai is 8 weeks, ideal 5-7 weeks and Xiaopeng is 4-9 weeks (10 + weeks for some models). We expect that the delivery cycle is still affected by supply chain / logistics and other factors. In view of the retained orders during the early insurance period and the recent new orders, it is expected that the delivery volume of new forces in March is expected to climb back to a reasonable level.
Sales volume vs. gross profit margin, the annual capacity climb and the degree of supply chain recovery are still the key: the new forces have adjusted the price according to the decline of national subsidies; In view of the rising pressure of upstream costs, we expect that 1) we will not rule out the possibility of further price adjustment, but we may stabilize the performance of new orders and delivery volume by synchronously expanding equity (auto enterprises with high impulse requirements may choose between equity expansion vs. gross profit margin). 2) 2022e high-end pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid / extended range vehicles may be market segments with strong certainty of sales growth. We continue to be optimistic about the prospect of rising industry penetration; It is expected that the expansion of existing plants and the production rhythm of new plants may become one of the leading factors in the climbing degree of 2h22e new forces. We estimate that the total delivery volume of 2022e new forces is about 58 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 0000 vehicles; Based on the launch planning, climbing rhythm and production capacity of 2022e new models, it is expected that the total delivery volume of 2022e new forces will be ranked as Xiaopeng, ideal and Weilai respectively.
Sales scale is the core, and strategy / concept / talent / organizational structure is the decisive factor: intelligent electrification is a long-term process, and strategy, concept, talent and organizational structure are the decisive factors leading to the difference of technology driven product force / sales scale. We continue to be optimistic about the steady rise in the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles in 2022e will be about 5-5.5 million. In terms of traditional automobile enterprises, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile are recommended, and Byd Company Limited(002594) ; In terms of Tesla and new forces, recommend Tesla and pay attention to ideals for a long time.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The expansion of production is less than expected; Industry demand is less than expected; The launch of new models is less than expected; The sales volume and gross profit margin of new generation / new model are not climbing as expected; The cost control is not as expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, the market / financial risk, and the dilution risk caused by continuous financing.
