Today (March 2), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, fell rapidly at the beginning of the session, showing a pulse downward trend, and then maintained a low shock pattern, with a clear view of the weakness.
From the disk perspective, the light index and heavy stock market continued, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors were different, the oil and gas sector was domineering to protect the sector, and the rise of ports, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors was higher. In the port shipping sector, as of press time, Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) limit, Xiamen Port Development Co.Ltd(000905) , Antong Holdings Co.Ltd(600179) , Liaoning Port Co.Ltd(601880) and other gains were higher; In the traditional Chinese medicine sector, Jilin Zixin Pharmaceutical Industrial Co.Ltd(002118) limit, Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Gansu Longshenrongfa Pharmaceutical Industry Co.Ltd(300534) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) and other stocks rose one after another. In addition, real estate, agriculture, coal and other targets also performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the A-share market may be gradually weakened in the future. Investors are more concerned about the impact of Chinese factors. The national two sessions are about to be held. It is suggested that investors pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] traditional Chinese Medicine
Great Wall Guorui Securities pointed out that the valuation is at the bottom of history and the current investment value of the pharmaceutical industry is prominent. It is suggested to increase the allocation proportion of the industry and pay attention to investment opportunities in six aspects: first, the performance disclosure of the annual report in 2021 and the first quarterly report in 2022 is imminent, and pay attention to the high-quality targets with high growth or higher than expected performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report; Second, with the official release of the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry, under the premise of controlling medical insurance expenses, innovation and internationalization will be the core main line of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation driven companies and pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability; Third, the CXO industry. Recently, the CXO industry has undergone in-depth adjustment, and the valuation is at the bottom of history. Contrarian, focus on companies with sufficient orders and reasonable current valuation; Fourth, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery; Fifth, pay attention to the consumer medical sector. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology, medical beauty and other medical sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and the consumption upgrading will drive their development; Sixth, pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The release of the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine shows the state’s determination to the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which will play a positive role in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
Guosheng Securities said that medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up, with more emphasis on the three factors of “performance valuation chips”. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been digested. Although there are many assets with unspeakable short-term valuation, extremely cheap and short-term concerns that are difficult to prove false, they have entered the allocation range in the medium and long term. In the short and medium term, in fact, there is no systematic solution. Recently, there have been problems in the chip structure of the whole market. Our idea is still to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they have fallen to the second-order derivative of the irrational valuation range. 2) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as adult class II vaccine, self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc. 3) Due to the high degree of chaos in stage trading, the chip factor should be fully considered when bottom reading.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous implementation of the centralized procurement policy this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
[Theme 2] port shipping
China Post Securities said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a boosting impact on the shipping sector, focusing on the oil transportation sector. In view of the high dependence of Europe on Russian energy, at present, about 2.3 million barrels / day of Russian crude oil flows westward to the export terminals of the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea through the pipeline network. The deterioration of the conflict will increase the introduction of oil from non Russian regions in Europe and increase the transportation cost.
In addition, Dongzheng futures pointed out that the port is the supply bottleneck, behind which is the reflection of the supply chain problems in the United States. The reasons for the formation of port problems include: the surge in demand, the shortage of labor and the shortage of transportation equipment. The problems of labor shortage and insufficient equipment are difficult to improve in the short term. The recovery of supply chain and the improvement of transportation capacity can only wait for the demand to fall. The extent and speed of demand decline determine the improvement rhythm of supply. The supply recovery process will be very slow. It is estimated that it will take more than half a year to solve the port problem.
In addition, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the port rate has risen slightly in 2021 and is expected to continue to rise in 2022. The demand for import and export of goods rebounded, driving the rise of port rates. In the first half of 2021, the revenue of single container (ton) of SAIC Group and Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) rebounded. At the end of 2021, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Shanghai port and Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that the container rate would be increased in 2022. Considering the low valuation of some port companies, they already have investment value. Recommend Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) with high dividend and Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) with substantial profit growth.
[Theme 3] oil and gas industry
The recent decline in crude oil prices and the impact of Geopolitics on people’s livelihood is caused by the weakening of crude oil inventories, said miyong. Among them, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects the market’s expectation of the reduction of global crude oil supply: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a long history. Recently, Russia and Ukraine have once again entered the tension on the edge of conflict. Due to Russia’s important position in the world crude oil market (according to OPEC world, Russia’s daily average crude oil production in 2021q4 is 10.8 million barrels / day, accounting for more than 10% of the world’s total output), the market is worried that Russia will be subject to economic export sanctions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will affect the supply of crude oil market.
Among them, Russian crude oil exports account for about 42% – 45% of the output. If Russian crude oil exports are sanctioned, the impact on the supply of global crude oil market will be greater than 5%.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the pattern of tight supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil continues, the geopolitical situation is changeable, and the short-term geopolitical risk premium of crude oil increases. Over the years, affected by the epidemic and low oil price cycle, the global oil and gas exploration expenditure has remained low. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term prosperity of the oil and gas industry. In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the short-term oil price still needs to pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and other geopolitical factors. If the export of Russian crude oil and natural gas is sanctioned and Iranian crude oil has not returned to the market, the global oil and gas may fall into a supply crisis, and the possibility of sharp rise in oil and gas prices cannot be ruled out.
[theme 4] agricultural planting
Minsheng securities mentioned that USDA predicted that there would still be a gap in the supply of international wheat in 21 / 22, and the inventory consumption of global corn and wheat decreased for the fifth consecutive year, to 25.0% and 35.8% respectively. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the concerns of the international market about the shortage of food supply, and the CBOT wheat price hit a record high since 2009; Although China’s dependence on grain imports is low, it will still support China’s prices through import cost transmission to a certain extent. China attaches great importance to food security, and the commercialization of genetically modified organisms is accelerating. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality seed enterprises ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ) and transgenic technology companies ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ), which have the leading scientific research strength and the first mover advantage of GM. in the future, they will fully benefit from the double dividends of “cycle” and “growth”, and the market share is expected to further increase.
AVIC Securities said that it is firmly optimistic about the prospect of the national seed industry and the improvement of the fundamentals of relevant seed enterprises. Under the banner of seed industry revitalization, the iteration and reconstruction of the industry are constantly implemented from top to bottom, which is highly deterministic. “Iteration” refers to the iteration of biological breeding technology. In January, relevant policies on transgene and gene editing were implemented to support the efficient approval of relevant varieties and show the determination and strength of the policy. “Reshaping” is the reshaping of the industry pattern. On November 24, the National Conference on promoting the work of supporting excellence of seed enterprises once again stressed that “we should improve and strengthen a number of seed industry leading enterprises with integrated innovation ability and adapt to market demand, and build the backbone force for the revitalization of seed industry”. Dragon seed enterprises with scientific research advantages will become more and more prominent. “Top down” refers to the implementation of policies, systems, supervision and law enforcement under the banner of seed industry revitalization. The overall industry fundamentals will be better and better.
In terms of trading, we believe that although there is a time cycle for the achievement of the industry performance, the revitalization of the seed industry is sustained and certain. The cashing cycle will inevitably lead to the settlement of “impetuous” funds and fluctuations, but it also brings opportunities for bargain hunting allocation to “long-term” funds. Retreat from the “floating foam” with high short-term expectations, and with the style suppression coming to an end, there will be better trading opportunities. Key recommendation: seed industry leader [ Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ] with genetically modified trait reserve, and [ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ] with leading genetically modified technology and multiple businesses.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the global grain market will remain tight in supply and demand in 2022, and the global grain price may continue to rise. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector, on the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the breeding loss, the reversal of the pig price cycle is poised to accelerate, and the investment opportunity of the pig sector is optimistic.
