Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Minsheng Securities: geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies international market concerns about tight food supply
USDA predicts that there will still be a gap in the supply of international wheat in the year 21 / 22, and the global inventory consumption of corn and wheat will decline for the fifth consecutive year, to 25.0% and 35.8% respectively. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the concerns of the international market about the shortage of food supply, and the CBOT wheat price hit a record high since 2009; Although China's dependence on grain imports is low, it will still support China's prices through import cost transmission to a certain extent. China attaches great importance to food security, and the commercialization of genetically modified organisms is accelerating. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality seed enterprises ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ) and transgenic technology companies ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ), which have the leading scientific research strength and the first mover advantage of GM. in the future, they will fully benefit from the double dividends of "cycle" and "growth", and the market share is expected to further increase.
AVIC Securities: the seed industry has ushered in a historic opportunity of "superposition of three phases"! Firmly optimistic about the prospect of national seed industry
The seed industry has ushered in a historic opportunity of "superposition of three phases". During the policy period, on February 11, the State Council issued the "14th five year plan" to promote agricultural and rural modernization. In the chapter "promoting innovation driven development", it once again emphasized the revitalization of the seed industry - strengthening the protection of germplasm resources, carrying out breeding innovation, strengthening the construction of seed industry base and strengthening the supervision of seed industry market. During the industrial period, bulk grain prices remained high, farmers' willingness to grow grain increased, and corn and rice seed stocks, supply and demand were optimized, promoting the prosperity of the seed industry. The commercialization of transgenic technology is approaching. On January 21, four regulations related to agricultural genetically modified organisms, including the measures for the administration of safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, the measures for the administration of crop seed production and operation licenses, and the provisions on the naming of agricultural plant varieties, were officially implemented.
In the medium and long term, we are firmly optimistic about the prospects of the national seed industry and the improvement of the fundamentals of relevant seed enterprises. Under the banner of seed industry revitalization, the iteration and reconstruction of the industry are constantly implemented from top to bottom, which is highly deterministic. "Iteration" refers to the iteration of biological breeding technology. In January, relevant policies on transgene and gene editing were implemented to support the efficient approval of relevant varieties and show the determination and strength of the policy. "Reshaping" is the reshaping of the industry pattern. On November 24, the National Conference on promoting the work of supporting excellence of seed enterprises once again stressed that "we should improve and strengthen a number of seed industry leading enterprises with integrated innovation ability and adapt to market demand, and build the backbone force for the revitalization of seed industry". Dragon seed enterprises with scientific research advantages will become more and more prominent. "Top down" refers to the implementation of policies, systems, supervision and law enforcement under the banner of seed industry revitalization. The overall industry fundamentals will be better and better.
In terms of trading, we believe that although there is a time cycle for the achievement of the industry performance, the revitalization of the seed industry is sustained and certain. The cashing cycle will inevitably lead to the settlement of "impetuous" funds and fluctuations, but it also brings opportunities for bargain hunting allocation to "long-term" funds. Retreat from the "floating foam" with high short-term expectations, and with the style suppression coming to an end, there will be better trading opportunities. Key recommendation: seed industry leader [ Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ] with genetically modified trait reserve, and [ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ] with leading genetically modified technology and multiple businesses.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : Policy: warm air blows frequently! Listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window
In February 22nd, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the Central Committee document No. 1 central document on the key work of Promoting Rural Revitalization in 2022. This year's No. 1 central document puts the grain production and the important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply at the top priority. It puts forward three key tasks: steady output, structural adjustment and conservation of cultivated land.
The document pointed out that we should firmly hold the bottom line of ensuring national food security, make every effort to do a good job in food production and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, practically adjust the agricultural structure on the spot, strictly abide by the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, ensure that the sown area of grain is stable and the output remains above 1.3 trillion kg, and we must see assessable results in expanding soybean and oil production.
The document also pointed out that it is necessary to vigorously promote the tackling of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, so as to fully implement the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry. In addition, accelerating the general survey and collection of agricultural germplasm resources, strengthening accurate identification and evaluation, carrying out the pilot of subsidies after the R & D and promotion of major varieties, implementing the seed law, implementing the system of substantive derived varieties, strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights of the seed industry, and severely cracking down on illegal and criminal acts such as license infringement in accordance with the law are the key to the revitalization of the seed industry.
The No. 1 central document issued by the Central Committee has continued to emphasize the importance of seed industry. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : it is expected that global food prices will remain in a high boom channel in 2022
Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of barley and wheat. The occurrence of local military operations may affect the development of normal agricultural production and trade, resulting in a global shortage of wheat, barley and other crops.
The price fundamentals of wheat and corn in China have strong support. Due to the late sowing of wheat due to the weather in the North last winter, it may reduce the output this year. At the same time, as the main crop of corn forage substitution, wheat price plays a certain supporting role in corn price. In addition, soybean meal prices are continuously disturbed by La Nina weather in South America, and the range of production reduction may be expanded.
On the whole, the global grain market will remain tight in supply and demand in 2022, and the global grain price may continue to rise. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector, on the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the breeding loss, the reversal of the pig price cycle is ready to accelerate, and we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pig sector.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, it is expected that the global food price will still be in the channel of high prosperity in 2022, and the planting and seed sector and pig breeding sector may continue to benefit. In terms of specific targets, the planting sector is good Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) ; Recommended for seed sector: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) . Recommendations for pig breeding sector: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
Dongguan Securities: the two sessions have carried out strategic deployment on key issues of agriculture over the years
Seeds are the foundation of agricultural modernization. Under the influence of the repeated covid-19 epidemic and the uncertainty of the international environment, it is very important to ensure the national food supply. No. 1 central document in 2022 is expected to be increased in 2022. The NPC and CPPCC will continue to increase agricultural input and ensure food supply, ensuring that the area of grain sown is stable and the output is maintained at more than 1 trillion and 300 billion jin. At the same time, we will implement the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project, improve our own grain supply capacity, appropriately increase the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat, stabilize the subsidy policies for corn and soybean producers and rice subsidies, and effectively ensure the income of farmers from grain planting. Based on the guarantee of China's grain supply, it is expected that the two sessions in 2022 will emphasize increasing the R & D capacity of the seed industry and vigorously promote the tackling of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, so as to effectively improve the comprehensive competitiveness of China's grain industry chain.
From the perspective of investment strategy, agriculture, as a basic industry for China's development, has carried out strategic deployment on key issues of agriculture in the two sessions over the years. It is expected that the "three rural issues" will be the focus of the "two sessions" in 2022. At the same time, the two sessions are expected to actively discuss and provide certain strategic deployment according to the situation of China's seed industry and breeding sector. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises such as seed industry and breeding.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: document 1 highlights the bottom line thinking of food security and is optimistic about the planting sector in the medium and long term
Document No. 1 highlights the bottom line thinking of food security, and the importance of the food industry has been highly concerned. Affected by the heating up of geographical conflicts, grain prices outside China have the power to continue to rise in the short term, maintaining the medium and long-term "optimistic" rating of the planting sector. The huge losses of the industry are unsustainable, and the logic of pig production capacity and pig price cycle reversal is strong, maintaining the "optimistic" rating of the breeding sector. The valuation and cost performance of the breeding sector have increased, and the pig breeding and yellow chicken breeding sectors continue to be recommended.
East Asia Qianhai Securities: No. 1 central document issued! The core technology of seed industry is expected to accelerate the application
The No. 1 central document issued the plan to implement the seed industry revitalization plan, focusing on accelerating the implementation of core technology and strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights in seed industry, and launching major projects in agricultural biological breeding. We believe that the seed industry is currently facing cyclical opportunities of increasing demand and improving the market environment, which are superimposed with the growth opportunities brought by the core technology represented by the base transfer.
In terms of investment suggestions, for pig breeding: Recently, the price of soybean meal has continued to rise, driving the price of pig feed raw materials to rise synchronously. The price of pig has continued to fluctuate at the bottom, and the losses of breeding enterprises may increase again. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce production capacity. It is suggested to pay attention to breeding enterprises with significant cost control advantages and stable operation. For the seed industry: the industry space is expected to expand with the increase of the penetration and price of high-quality varieties, and the market is expected to concentrate on the leading enterprises with prominent R & D competitive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading seed industry with obvious advantages in the field of transgenic.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : Document No. 1 lays down the policy program for the whole year! Focus on planting seed industry and biological breeding
Document No. 1 has stabilized the grain planting area and profitability from the dimension of program and policy, which is expected to stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, so as to boost the demand and premium space of high-quality seeds, and finally improve the performance of seed enterprises. Continue to encourage biological breeding and promote the tackling of key core technologies. Document No. 1 stressed the need to fully implement the action plan for the revitalization of the seed industry and start major agricultural biological breeding projects. We will accelerate the implementation of key agricultural core technology research projects, implement systems such as "showing leadership" and "ministry provincial linkage", and carry out pilot long-term R & D projects. Strengthen the construction of modern agricultural industrial technology system. Carry out the pilot of subsidy after R & D and promotion of major varieties. We will implement the seed law, implement the system of substantive derived varieties, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights in the seed industry, and severely crack down on illegal and criminal acts such as trademark infringement in accordance with the law. We believe that the commercial landing process of biological breeding will continue to be promoted, and the continuous improvement of policy support and intellectual property protection is expected to continue to purify the seed industry market environment and protect the interests of enterprises with R & D and innovative technologies.
In terms of investment strategy, Document No. 1 laid down the policy program for the whole year and continued to emphasize food security. It is suggested to pay attention to the planting seed industry and biological breeding sector. Companies involved include Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , biological breeding related Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , planting related Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) , etc. In addition, we continue to recommend investment opportunities in pig breeding sector.
