Let’s take a look at the latest situation in Russia and Ukraine and the latest changes in the financial market.
Biden says Putin miscalculated
US closes airspace to Russia
According to Sky News, on the evening of March 1 local time, US President Biden opened his first state of the Union speech with the topic of conflict in Ukraine.
According to Sky News, US President Biden officially announced that cloth would close us airspace to all Russian flights in his first state of the Union address on the evening of March 1 local time
Video screenshot of Biden’s first state of the Union address
Biden claimed that Putin “made a serious miscalculation” in the war between Russia and Ukraine
According to the latest news from CNN, Biden claimed in his speech that Russian President Vladimir Putin “made a serious miscalculation” in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
It is worth mentioning that on February 27 local time, a public opinion survey jointly organized by the Washington Post and ABC showed that Biden’s support rate reached a new low. Opinion polls show that only 37% of Americans support Biden’s work, 55% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s work, and 44% of them strongly oppose Biden’s work.
Biden: no conflict with Russian troops in Ukraine
In his first state of the Union address, US President Biden reiterated that US troops do not and will not conflict with Russian troops in Ukraine
Biden said he had sent U.S. troops to Europe to protect NATO allies
According to Sky News, Biden claimed that he had sent us troops to Europe to protect NATO allies “we mobilized US ground forces, air squadrons and ships to protect NATO countries, including Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.” Biden said.
oil prices soared, Biden said the United States would release 30 million barrels of strategic oil reserves
According to Agence France Presse, Biden said in his speech, the United States will release 30 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves Agence France Presse also said that due to the conflict in Ukraine, Brent crude oil exceeded $110 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate oil rose 5% Uzbekistan claims to defeat Chechen assassination against Zelensky
According to the Israeli times, on the 1st local time, Aleksi Danilov, Secretary of the Ukrainian national security and Defense Commission, announced on Ukrainian television that the Ukrainian military destroyed a Chechen tank on the outskirts of Kiev a few days ago and thwarted a plot by Chechen militants to assassinate Ukrainian President zelenski.
According to the report of the Jerusalem Post, another group of Israeli special forces was assassinated.
It is reported that this special force belongs to the “Kadyrov army”, which is a Chechen paramilitary organization to provide support for the Russian army’s special military action against Ukraine.
According to reports, Danilov said that Ukraine got the information of the assassination from the agents of the Russian Federal Security Agency (FSB).
Ukrainian security department said that a large number of Russian airborne troops landed in Kharkov
According to the Israeli times on March 1, the Ukrainian security department said that a large number of Russian airborne troops landed in Kharkov.
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense: the Belarusian army is ready to enter Ukraine
On March 2 local time, the Ministry of defense of Ukraine announced that the Belarusian army was ready to enter Ukraine.
On March 1 local time, at the Belarusian security conference held on the same day, Belarusian president Lukashenko said that Belarus would not participate in or prepare to participate in Russia’s special military operations.
“there are very strong forces hoping to undermine the Russia Ukraine negotiations”
Russian satellite network reported on March 2 that President Lukashenko of Belarus said that there are very strong forces hoping to undermine the negotiation process between Moscow and Kiev
President Lukashenko of Belarus
According to the report, the Belarusian news agency quoted Lukashenko’s speech on March 1, in which he talked about the Russian Ukrainian negotiations. He said: “(there are) very strong forces that want to destroy this process. I hope Zelinski and his team can hold on and don’t let the negotiation process end.”
On February 28 local time, the first round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Gomel state of Belarus ended. The five hour negotiations failed to reach a ceasefire agreement. The Russian and Ukrainian delegations said that the two sides had identified a series of priority issues and found some predictable common positions. The two sides also discussed the possibility of holding a second round of negotiations.
According to Russian media, the next round of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations will be held on March 2. The negotiation place is located on the border between Belarus and Poland.
Italian Prime Minister declares a state of emergency until December 31, 2022
On March 1, local time, Italian Prime Minister Draghi signed a decree according to the opinions of the cabinet meeting and the Senate and house of Representatives, and declared a state of national emergency. The decree is valid until December 31, 2022, according to EUROLINK news agency.
The report pointed out that the implementation of the national emergency law will help the Italian government to simplify the temporary legislative procedures and take timely countermeasures against problems such as energy shortage and refugee relief.
According to Draghi, at present, Italy has a certain amount of natural gas stored, which will reduce the demand for natural gas as the weather gets warmer. In addition, the international community has sufficient oil and gas supply, which is expected to alleviate the shortage of natural gas in Italy.
“Only by launching diversified projects and establishing renewable energy and new natural gas supply channels can our energy supply be independent of a single country,” Draghi said
crude oil prices soared to $110
Goldman Sachs: oil price risk is still underestimated
As an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas and other energy, Russia and Ukraine are in turmoil, and international oil prices and European natural gas prices continue to soar.
Brent crude oil prices hit a new high of $110.
Although the oil price continues to rise, most Goldman Sachs believe that the market still underestimates the upward risk of the crude oil market.
Goldman Sachs strategists said that investors are still too optimistic about the oil price risk caused by the Russian Ukrainian crisis, and are also too optimistic about the war’s ability to slow down the pace of monetary tightening.
Goldman Sachs strategists led by Dominic Wilson wrote in the latest report, “from the perspective of oil price, the market may underestimate the risk of tight supply, which is still a major risk of continuous conflict – so the ‘risk premium’ here may be greater. In addition, we also believe that the market is beginning to exaggerate the impact of this conflict on the Fed’s policy trajectory.”
Oil prices rose above $105 a barrel yesterday as the Russian Ukrainian crisis continued to exacerbate the massive disruption of global supply. After all, Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer. Although the United States and Europe have so far not directly imposed sanctions on Russian commodities, the trade of these raw materials has been hampered by rising financing and transportation costs.
From oil to gas and wheat, the war has upended commodity markets, exacerbated inflationary pressures and spooked equity investors. Global stock markets fell in the first two months of this year due to concerns about radical monetary tightening and slowing growth recovery, while the economic impact of sanctions against Russia added another worry to investors.
Wilson pointed out in the report that “even if we really see the final easing of tensions, it now seems that there may be long-term policy and economic consequences, not just local assets”. He warned investors to beware of long-term high commodity supply risks, the consequences of economic growth and inflation, rising European defense spending and long-term sanctions on Russian assets.
Goldman Sachs strategists pointed out that the risk of recent economic growth in the eurozone is higher than that in the United States, which will moderately increase the possibility of the European Central Bank slowing down the pace of monetary tightening. As for the Fed, strategists expect the impact to be more neutral, although traders are abandoning their bet that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March.
In its previous report, Goldman Sachs raised US inflation expectations for 2022 and expected the fed to raise interest rates in 2023 more than previously expected. The bank said that the hot inflation situation and extremely tight labor market will lead the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark interest rate 11 times before the end of 2023.
Biden: controlling prices is the top priority
and urge to reduce the price of electric vehicles
Oil prices continued to rise. US President Biden delivered his first state of the Union address since taking office in Congress at 10:00 Beijing time on March 2. Biden said that controlling prices is the top priority at present. Biden urged lower prices for electric cars.
overseas turmoil, A-Shares fell as a whole
Affected by the turbulence of overseas situation and the sharp decline of peripheral markets last night, the A-share market as a whole is still weak this morning. The main indexes are green, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and semiconductor sectors are dragged down, and the growth enterprise market and science and innovation board have a greater decline.
Oil prices soared, oil and gas resources stocks soared, and crude oil funds also rose fiercely; Oil, nonferrous metals, gas supply and heating, coal and other sectors rose against the trend; However, petrochemical stocks with oil as raw materials plunged under the influence; Lithium battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) also collapsed and plunged again. Chemical fiber, semiconductor, electrical equipment and other sectors fell sharply.
At the close of the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.41%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.25%, the gem index fell 2%, and the Kechuang 50 index fell 1.09%. The turnover between the two cities was 574.9 billion yuan, 1862 individual stocks rose and 2600 fell.
The Hong Kong stock market was even weaker. Rusal, which is listed in Hong Kong stocks, continued to plummet and plunged 29.42% in the morning. At present, the stock has a market value of more than HK $50 billion.
After going north, the capital continued to fall, and it was still a net purchase of 622 million yuan.
oil and gas and other resource stocks soared
100 billion “Chinese prefix” intraday limit
Oil prices rose sharply, and oil and gas stocks, energy stocks and resource stocks benefited greatly, becoming a red sector against the trend this morning.
Tong Petrotech Corp(300164) 20% limit, Renzhi shares, Xinjiang Beiken Energy Engineering Co.Ltd(002828) , Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) , etc Petrochina Company Limited(601857) also rose more than 2%.
crude oil fund continues to rise
prevent premium risk
Oil and gas related funds in the market also continued to rise sharply. The riots continued this morning, with most of them rising by more than 7% and 5%. However, investors also want oil and gas funds to have the risk of premium.
Petrochemical stocks fell miserably:
100 billion Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) flash crash
Upstream oil rose sharply, raw materials rose, and petrochemical stocks suffered. The two petrochemical giant stocks, both of which have a market value of more than 150 billion Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) plunged nearly 7% after opening.
Not only petrochemical, chemical fiber and other stocks, but also technological semiconductors, electrical equipment (new energy), military industry and so on.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) slump
dragged down the gem
The trillion lithium battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plummeted by more than 4% in the window of new energy vehicle sales to be announced in February and the news that Tesla may use Byd Company Limited(002594) blade batteries.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plummeted, becoming an important factor dragging down the gem index.
50 billion Rusal plummeted by nearly 30% in the session
Affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, Russian stocks fluctuated violently. Rusal, which is listed in Hong Kong stocks, also continued to fall sharply.
After a series of sharp declines, Rusal, with a market value of more than HK $50 billion, plunged 29.42% in the morning.
