The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, bringing huge fluctuations to the global market. The market has paid close attention to the impact on the oil and gas industry. Both Russia and Ukraine have important positions in energy exports. The protracted war has greatly affected the pattern of world energy trade.
oil distribution continues to set a new price record since 2014
The first is the soaring energy prices. The price indexes of crude oil, thermal coal and natural gas all rose sharply, among which the soaring degree of crude oil futures is the most amazing. As of the morning of March 2, Beijing time, WTI crude oil station had reached US $108 / barrel for the first time in 2013; Brent crude oil station is at $110 / barrel, which is also continuing to set a new high since 2014.
Related commodity futures, including fuel oil and petrochemical products, also rose across the board.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) commented that referring to the previous two similar sanctions against Iran, the global energy price may be impacted again, and the crude oil price may break through the $140 mark again, exacerbating the pressure of global inflation.
From the current situation, the large-scale export of crude oil from Russia and Ukraine is inevitable. Superimposed on OPEC's failure to achieve the oil production target in January, major European and American countries have been discussing the release of oil reserves.
A-Shares oil and gas related sector reaction geometry
Under the background of China's secondary market and the sharp rise of international oil prices, at the beginning of March, petroleum and petrochemical related stocks continued to rise, crude oil themed QDII fund was also looted, and noan and GF issued risk tips one after another. In daily life, spot fuel also rose. Since March 5, the fuel surcharge on Chinese routes has doubled. It remains to be seen whether it will bring pressure to the recovery of the aviation industry.
However, the agency also suggested that if the situation eases or gradually evolves into a normalized situation of small conflicts without escalation or peace talks, the market trading heat may decline, and there is a large risk of high crude oil prices falling in a short time. In the medium and long term, low inventory and strong demand are still expected, and they are still bullish in the medium term.
For oil and gas equipment and service enterprises, although the sector has risen sharply in recent days, the impact may not be fully revealed in a short time. According to the announcement of stock trading changes released after Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) two connected boards, the international oil price has increased significantly recently, but the impact of changes in oil price on the performance of oil service companies has a transmission process, and the key lies in the increase of capital expenditure. In the case of rising oil prices, the increase of capital expenditure of oil and gas companies generally lags behind 1-2 years.
Since this week, the disk growth of shipping port sector has been more significant, ranking in the forefront of the market continuously. Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) which is located in the three northeastern provinces, harvested five boards today, and its share price has doubled in five days.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) research report points out that if the oil and gas transportation from Russia to Europe continues to be affected, Europe may need to import oil and gas from the United States and the Middle East by sea, greatly increasing the transportation distance. At the same time, if Russian shipping enterprises are sanctioned, the market capacity may be vacant, which will greatly promote the rise of freight in the spot market.
In the early morning, according to the data of the Baltic Exchange, the daily average rate of oil tankers on the td17 route from the Baltic Sea to the UK increased by US $35000 to US $210000 / day. This is the highest level since at least 2008. As shown in the figure, the BDTI index, which represents the price level of oil transportation, has more than doubled in two weeks.
In terms of capital, in the first two days of this week, the largest net inflow of main capital was Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , which reached 1.5 billion yuan; The northbound capital that bought for two days also increased its holdings by Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) 450 million yuan.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) point of view: the future impact of geopolitical conflict on Russian crude oil exports remains to be seen. It is suggested to wait for the reverse opportunity and lay out more definite recovery trend opportunities in the next two years. However, considering that the destocking of crude oil and the release of floating warehouse transportation capacity are basically completed, and the environmental protection policy is expected to accelerate the clearance of transportation capacity, it is optimistic about the deterministic recovery of oil transportation market in the next two years. Considering that the capital market is expected to take the lead, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) , China Merchants Energy Shipping Co.Ltd(601872) are expected to benefit
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