On March 1, according to the statistics of Kerui real estate research center, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in February decreased both month on month, and the decline was significantly larger than that in the same period of previous years, of which the year-on-year decline was close to “halving”.
The average sales volume of real estate enterprises increased by more than 40.5 billion yuan in October, a decrease of only 23.2% compared with that in 2021, a decrease of only 15.2% over that in 2021.
From the perspective of full caliber sales performance, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved a sales amount of 463.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8% compared with January, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 47%, and a decrease of 56% compared with the average level in 2021.
From the full caliber sales ranking, in the first two months of 2022, country garden (02007. HK) ranked first with a sales volume of 92.29 billion yuan, followed by Vanke ( China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) . SZ) with a sales volume of 64.6 billion yuan, rongchuang China (01918. HK) with a sales volume of 50.3 billion Yuan ranked third, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) . SH) with a sales volume of 49.8 billion yuan ranked fourth, and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ( China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . SZ) with a sales volume of 25.16 billion yuan ranked fifth.
It is worth mentioning that in China Evergrande (03333. HK), which ranked among the top three in terms of sales in the past, its sales in the first two months were only 5.18 billion yuan. Surging news inquired about China Evergrande’s previous announcements from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and found that China Evergrande has not disclosed monthly sales data since September 2021.
Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande group, previously said that the company began to get into trouble in June 2021 and there was almost no capital inflow since September.
According to the data previously disclosed by China Evergrande, the company achieved contract sales of about 443.02 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 38.74%. Excluding the sales in the first eight months of 2021, the sales of China Evergrande in the last four months of 2021 was only 4.38 billion yuan.
Kerry believes that during the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic and lack of confidence in the industry, the overall supply and demand of the market and transactions show no obvious signs of warming, and the enthusiasm of enterprises in pushing and marketing is generally not high. Although there is a trend of easing and improvement in the current policy, the downward pressure on the market is still large in the short term. It remains to be seen whether the market can recover in March and April.
From the perspective of urban energy level, the supply of first tier cities fell again, and the transactions fell across the board, down 25% and 42% respectively on the same and month on month basis. The markets of 24 second – and third tier cities continued to turn cold, and the turnover decreased by 37% and 29% respectively on the same and month on month basis. Among them, more than 80% of the transactions in the second and third tier cities fell year-on-year, and nearly 40% of the transactions in the second and third tier cities fell by half year-on-year.
Kerry said in the report that the real estate market had a dismal start in 2022. By February, the downward trend of the market continued, market confidence had not been restored, and the sales pressure of real estate enterprises increased. In the short term, the main tone of policy regulation of the real estate industry will not change. The real estate market will still face great downward pressure. The overall sales scale of the industry will remain stable and decline. The overall increase of transactions in March is limited, and the year-on-year decline may further expand due to the high base in the same period of 2021. The market of each city is not optimistic and will continue to differentiate in the future. With the gradual recovery of market confidence, it is expected that the market of the core first and second tier cities may take the lead in stabilizing and recovering in the first half of the year, and the weak second tier and strong third tier cities may recover in turn in the second half of the year.
