In February, the new housing market did not significantly warm up, the transaction area of key cities hit a new low in a single month in recent years, and the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises continued to decline both month on month.
at the same time, the investment intensity of representative real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year, and the differentiation of land acquisition was significant
Industry insiders believe that February is the Spring Festival, but the expected Spring Festival home purchase did not appear, and the overall supply and demand of the market and transactions have not warmed significantly. The core reason is that market confidence has not been restored. It is suggested to take more measures to boost market confidence. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of market confidence, the market of core first and second tier cities may take the lead in stabilizing and recovering in the first half of the year, and the weak second tier and strong third tier cities may recover in turn in the second half of the year.
new house transactions hit a new low in a single month
According to the data of Kerui Research Center, in February, the top 100 real estate enterprises only realized a sales trading amount of 401.58 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 23.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 47.2%, an increase of more than 10 percentage points compared with January and a decrease of 56.5% compared with the monthly average level of 2021.
specifically, in February, the transaction area of new houses in 28 key monitoring cities decreased by 32% month on month and 35% year-on-year, and the market transaction reached a new low in a single month in recent years
The supply of first tier cities fell again, and the transaction fell across the board, down 25% and 42% respectively on the same and month on month basis. Among them, transactions in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were all at record lows, with year-on-year declines of around 40%. The markets of 24 second - and third tier cities continued to turn cold, and the turnover decreased by 37% and 29% respectively on the same and month on month basis. Among them, more than 80% of the transactions in the second and third tier cities fell year-on-year, and nearly 40% of the transactions in the second and third tier cities fell by half year-on-year.
Kerui Research Center pointed out that due to the further cooling of the market during the Spring Festival in February, the overall industry confidence is insufficient, the overall market supply and demand and transaction show no obvious signs of warming, and the enthusiasm of enterprises in pushing and marketing is generally not high. Although there is a trend of easing and improvement in the current policy, there is still great downward pressure on the market in the short term, and it remains to be seen whether the market will recover in March and April.
For the main reasons for the decline of enterprise sales performance and the absence of homecoming tide, Yihan think tank believes that there are four aspects: first, economic growth is under pressure, employees' income is discounted, and their expectations for the future are unstable, which restricts the decision-making of house purchase. Second, the cold market continues. Buyers are either worried about the quality of the project, or subject to the high mortgage interest rate, or trapped in a high down payment ratio, and are unwilling to make purchase decisions. Third, repeated epidemics in many places or climatic reasons (heavy snow and traffic congestion in some cities) affect the visit and subscription of the Spring Festival. Fourth, the supply structure is unbalanced. During the Spring Festival, some enterprises are in a "out of stock" state in cities with good market performance.
real estate enterprises have significant differentiation in land acquisition
Zhongzhi Research Institute data show that in February, the total land acquisition of 50 representative real estate enterprises decreased by 67.0% year-on-year
Specifically, the internal differentiation of 50 representative enterprises is significant. Enterprises dominated by state-owned central enterprises have a positive attitude towards land acquisition, such as China Resources Land in the first camp and green city China in the second camp. They all participated in land acquisition in February.
From the top 10 real estate enterprises with land acquisition amount in key cities, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are still the main force. National leading enterprises such as Greentown, China Resources and Binjiang are still widely distributed in many key cities. The participation of central state-owned enterprises is high. More than half of the top 10 real estate enterprises in key cities are central state-owned enterprises.
Yihan think tank also pointed out that the investment of real estate enterprises did not rebound much in February. Land acquisition enterprises are mainly state-owned enterprises, such as China Resources Land, green city China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Beijing Xingchuang investment and China's overseas development. They have the background of state-owned enterprises and strong financial strength. The new value of goods in February exceeded 10 billion, while private enterprises are still trapped in financial pressure and few enterprises acquire land, Among the first batch of centralized land supply in Beijing, only Xuhui obtained one plot.
As for the reasons for the sharp decline of real estate enterprises' investment, the China Index Research Institute believes that it is mainly affected by the centralized land supply. In February 2022, only one city in Beijing carried out land supply and launched 18 plots. The low supply scale is also the reason why the land acquisition investment of real estate enterprises did not rebound too much. It is noteworthy that the land acquired at the beginning of the year is expected to become the sales reserve value of this year, and the result of this round of land transfer is better than the market expectation.
It is worth noting that from January to February 2022, Greentown China ranked first in the t0p100 list of real estate enterprises with a cumulative new value of 39.2 billion yuan. In Beijing's centralized land supply in February, green city China spent nearly 10 billion to successively start the plot of cuigezhuang in Chaoyang District, plot of liuniangfu in Shijingshan and plot of Yizhuang new town.
experts suggest multiple measures to boost market confidence
Yihan think tank pointed out that the market situation continues to be depressed and the sales performance of real estate enterprises is not satisfactory. Most of the reasons lie in the lack of consumer confidence. On the one hand, the expectation of future income is unstable and lack of confidence; Second, due to the impact of the thunder storm of real estate enterprises, consumers lack confidence in the timely delivery of houses and the quality of houses, so they have more hesitation in the purchase decision. If consumer confidence cannot be reconstructed, the market will still be difficult to improve significantly.
Yihan think tank suggested that in addition to vigorously promoting employment stability, increasing tax cuts and fee reductions and improving consumption momentum, there is still a lot of room for optimization of house purchase policies. On the one hand, adjust purchase and loan restrictions to reduce the difficulty and cost of house purchase. The possible change directions of the purchase restriction policy include: appropriately adjusting the social security years; Registered residence system reform, reduce the difficulty of residents settled, and do not registered residence as a hard constraint for residents purchase; Relax the requirements for marital status. The loan restriction policy moderately reduces the down payment ratio of commercial loans and provident fund loans for just needed or improved customers. On the other hand, adjust the housing identification standards to reduce the difficulty of obtaining the qualification of house purchase. In some cities, there is much room for adjustment in the identification standards of the first and second houses. For example, whether the identification standard of "recognizing the house and recognizing the loan" is too strict, "how to define the first house when recognizing the house", and whether there is a loan record in "recognizing the loan", even if there is a second house, no matter whether the loan is paid off or not.
Looking forward to March, Kerui Research Center believes that a certain transmission and fermentation cycle is still needed from the end of the policy to the end of the market. In the short term, the real estate market is still facing great downward pressure. The overall increase of transactions in March is limited, and the year-on-year decline may further expand due to the high base in the same period last year. The urban markets will continue to differentiate. Ideally, with the gradual recovery of market confidence, the core first and second tier cities may take the lead in stabilizing and recovering in the first half of the year, and the weak second tier and strong third tier cities may recover in turn in the second half of the year.
However, the shell Research Institute believes that since the beginning of the year, various localities have intensively issued policies to "stabilize the property market". As of February 25, more than 30 places in at least 14 provinces across the country have issued "stabilizing the property market" policies to stimulate the demand for house purchase from many aspects, such as "house purchase subsidies", "adjusting the proportion of down payment" and "reducing interest rates". With the promotion of policies, finance and marketing measures, most cities will see the momentum of new house sales warming back in March and April. It is expected that the bottoming process of the new housing market will be completed quickly, and the urban regulation and control policies will remain moderately relaxed in the first half of the yearcenter>
