On March 1, the National Bureau of statistics released the monthly report on China’s purchasing managers’ index, which showed that in February, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the critical point, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry increased slightly.
Overall, the situation of enterprises returning to work and production after the Spring Festival is good, the manufacturing PMI continues to operate smoothly in the expansion range, the demand is improved, and the expectation is good.
“China’s manufacturing PMI has been above the boom and bust line for four consecutive months, indicating that China’s manufacturing industry is expanding, and the expansion speed is faster than that in January.” Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, told the reporter of Securities Daily.
In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 51.8% and 51.4% respectively, up 0.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, both higher than the critical point; The PMI of small enterprises was 45.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point. From the sub index, among the five sub indexes constituting the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new order index are higher than the critical point, and the raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index are lower than the critical point.
China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) financial market department macro researcher Zhou Maohua told the reporter of Securities Daily that the manufacturing PMI index in February was better than expected and the pace of expansion was faster than that in January; Combined with the sub indicators, China’s manufacturing activities have increased, and the business confidence of enterprises is improving; However, from the PMI of small enterprises, purchase price of raw materials and other indicators, the operating conditions of various types of enterprises are obviously differentiated, and some small and medium-sized enterprises still face cost pressure. Attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream price transmission.
\u3000\u3000 “The manufacturing PMI index in February reflects the gradual recovery of China’s economic demand and the gradual increase of economic activity. However, at present, China’s demand is still in the recovery stage, with unbalanced and structural problems; at the same time, under the background of intensified geopolitical conflicts, the prospects for overseas epidemic prevention, economic recovery, inflation and policies are still uncertain; China’s macro policies still need to be moderately strengthened , stimulate the vitality of micro entities, accelerate the recovery of domestic demand, and help high-quality economic development. ” Zhou Maohua said.
Zheng Houcheng said that the manufacturing PMI in January showed five characteristics: first, under the background of the repeated superposition of the “Spring Festival effect” of the epidemic, the manufacturing PMI did not fall but rose. From the five main sub items, it was mainly due to the sharp rise of the new order index by 1.4 percentage points. Second, the new order index returned to the boom and bust line after six months, indicating that China needs to be better improved after the central economic work conference put forward “implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and enhancing the endogenous driving force of development”. Third, both the ex factory price index and the price index of main raw materials rose in February, both reaching a new high in nearly four months. Fourth, from the perspective of enterprise scale, PMI of large enterprises has increased on the boom and bust line, and small enterprises continue to explore below the boom and bust line, indicating that the trend of large enterprises and small enterprises is further differentiated. It is expected that the policy support for small and micro enterprises proposed by the central economic work conference will accelerate the implementation. Fifth, in addition to the employees of medium-sized enterprises, the PMI employee index has been systematically raised. Among them, the construction industry employee index has significantly increased by 6.60 percentage points compared with the previous value, returning to the boom and bust line, indicating that infrastructure investment is expected to record a high growth rate in February.
It is noteworthy that the performance of non manufacturing PMI index in February was better than expected. Data show that in February, the non manufacturing business activity index was 51.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the overall recovery pace of the non manufacturing industry has accelerated.
Zhou Maohua said that at present, the activity of non manufacturing activities is increasing. The effects of China’s counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies are gradually emerging, and infrastructure investment is gradually warming up; Although the service industry index is above the 50 dry and prosperous line, it is lower than the average level in normal years, which to some extent reflects that the repeated epidemic still inhibits the activities of China’s service industry, such as transportation, catering and accommodation, tourism and other industries.
Turning to the future development trend of manufacturing industry, Zhou Maohua predicted that manufacturing activities are expected to gradually increase. Affected by the fading out of seasonal factors, the gradual recovery of China’s demand and the continuous appearance of the effect of manufacturing rescue support policies, the prosperity of manufacturing activities is expected to gradually recover. However, at the same time, affected by the rising prices of energy and some raw materials, the production input cost of some manufacturing industries is under great pressure, and the repair of the supply chain still needs to be completed.
Wen bin, China China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) chief researcher, told the reporter of Securities Daily that the improvement of economic prosperity in February exceeded market expectations, and the effect of stable growth policy in the early stage gradually appeared. However, it should also be noted that demand expansion is still slow, and there are still some difficulties in the recovery of service industry and small and micro enterprises. In the next stage, economic development is facing a more complex internal and external situation. The intensification of geopolitical conflicts has brought more uncertainty to the global economy. Commodity prices have risen, inflation in major countries has continued to heat up, the Federal Reserve is about to start raising interest rates and shrinking tables, and global financial market volatility has intensified. There is still pressure on China’s economic growth, demand needs to be further released, and the effect of policies needs to be further observed. Macro policies should continue to do a good job in counter cyclical adjustment, increase support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and other market entities, promote the accelerated recovery of the service industry, and prevent various internal and external risks.
