“I thought it would fall, but I didn’t expect it to fall in the afternoon (February 28), and it fell deeper and deeper.” A bill practitioner told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
According to the website of Shanghai Stock Exchange, on February 28, the yields of 7-day and 1-month state-owned silver notes were 0.01%, both reaching a record low. The last similar trend occurred in late December last year, which once triggered the market’s expectation of weakening credit data in that month.
For the new round of lower bill interest rates since late February, analysts believe that under the guidance of the financial management department, the credit data in February is expected to continue the year-on-year increase trend in January, but the structure has not been completely improved, and the “wide credit” still needs to be strengthened Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) chief economist Li Chao predicted that credit would increase by 1.5 trillion yuan in February, an increase of 140 billion yuan over last year.
“Bill 3m-1m interest margin can be used to observe the bank’s expectation of credit supply in the next quarter or so. The average weekly interest margin between the two reached 1.16 percentage points, indicating that the market has strong expectations for the recovery of credit supply from the end of March to the second quarter.” He fan, senior analyst of industrial research, said.
bill reproduction “0” interest rate
According to the data of Shanghai Stock Exchange, the bill interest rate began to decline since February 15 and went all the way down. On the last trading day of February, the yield of state-owned shares silver notes transferred to cash for 7-day and 1-month periods was as low as 0.01%.
“On the last trading day at the end of the month, the buyer’s demand for supplementary scale is extremely strong. Many large banks and small and medium-sized institutions are still not full, and actively sweep tickets in the market.” A note trader said. According to the report of Shanghai international money brokerage, on February 28, it was still difficult to get one ticket for bills due in March, and the market further refreshed the transaction low price, with the quotation range of 0 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) % – 0.01% throughout the day.
The lower interest rate of this round of bills, or due to the influence of factors such as the Spring Festival, the enterprise has not fully returned to work and the reduction of credit demand Dai Zhifeng, director of Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Research Institute, said that due to the Spring Festival holiday, the demand in February was not as strong as that in January, and the launch slowed down to a certain extent.
“The new credit extension of some banks in February is not ideal. It does not rule out that the financial management department has carried out corresponding narrow credit guidance, which has increased the demand for bank bill collection.” Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) financial industry chief analyst Wang Yifeng said.
However, it should be noted that the interest rate trend of “0” in this round of bills is also different from that in December last year. In December last year, the yields of January and March mainly fell sharply, which also led to the decline of the yields of other term bills to a certain extent, while this round is mainly the decline of the yields of 7-day and January.
According to Wang Yifeng’s analysis, at the end of February, the rediscount rate over the three-month period was about 0.1-0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of December 2021, reflecting that banks prefer to receive short-term bills, the demand for medium and long-term varieties has decreased, and there is no serious loan impulse, which aims to reserve room for subsequent credit.
He fan also said that the interest margin between one-year and three-month notes widened sharply in February, indicating that the market has improved expectations for credit supply, indicating that the market has strong expectations for the recovery of credit supply from the end of March to the second quarter, “The recent trend of bill interest rate shows that although the credit supply in February is still weak, banks have strong expectations for the recovery of credit demand in the second quarter.”
2 month credit is expected to continue to increase
According to the data previously released by the central bank, the social finance and credit data in January reached a record high, exceeding market expectations, but the general analysis believes that further observation is still needed from the perspective of structure and sustainability. For the sharp decline of bill interest rate in February, many analysts believe that the credit in February may continue to show the characteristics of “acceptable total amount and weak structure”, and the quality of “wide credit” still needs to be improved.
Li Chao said that the new amount of RMB credit in February is expected to be 1.5 trillion, a slight increase of 140 billion yuan year-on-year compared with 1.36 trillion last year, and the corresponding growth rate is the same as the previous value at 11.5%. February is the Spring Festival month and the natural month of credit, which is expected to be generally stable.
Li Chao explained that it is difficult to increase credit significantly in February. On the one hand, the central bank often does not have strong guidelines to stimulate credit supply in the Spring Festival month; On the other hand, in late February, the bill discount and rediscount interest rates fell again by a large margin, which means that the bank has a certain degree of “bill offset”, so the corresponding total credit will be difficult to increase much.
“It is expected that the social finance and credit data will be better in February. Banks with relatively weak credit demand will continue to carry out short-term loans and bill impulse to achieve the target of scale growth. It is estimated that it will not be weaker than the 1.36 trillion in February last year.” Dai Zhifeng also said that specifically, the overall scale of bank credit is not weak. Affected by the Spring Festival, it has slowed down compared with January, and it is expected that there will be a relatively good growth in March; The stock banks with high real estate share have a large gap, but they actively carry out asset side transformation and are confident to make up for the gap brought by real estate; Urban commercial banks have regional differentiation. The overall situation in North China is general, and the urban commercial banks in economically developed areas are more optimistic.
Under the background that “credit easing” still needs to be strengthened, should monetary policy be further strengthened Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) fixed income chief analyst Mingming believes that the monetary easing window period in March has not ended, and there is still a high probability of subsequent RRR reduction, “Whether judging from the quality of the current economic improvement, the analysis of the logic of the policy or the actual operation of the central bank at the end of the month, it proves that the current monetary policy is still in a loose window period, and there is still a high probability of reducing the reserve requirement in the next two months. It can cooperate with and support the demand for credit expansion, release long-term funds, further reduce social financing costs and effectively help achieve the goal of steady growth; although At present, monetary policy remains loose, but in the short term, the probability of the central bank cutting interest rates is relatively low. “
