Event: according to Reuters, on February 28, the German Ministry of climate and energy proposed a draft legislation: it plans to achieve the goal of 100% renewable energy power generation by 2035.
With the upgrading of policies and the acceleration of German Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) construction, EU countries are expected to follow up.
The draft discloses: (1) overall goal: it is planned to achieve the goal of 100% renewable energy power generation by 2035, 15 years ahead of the previous goal; (2) Specific planning: the annual bidding volume of German land wind will be gradually increased to 10GW in 2027, and the bidding volume of photovoltaic year will be gradually increased to 20GW in 2028 and maintained until 2035. By 2035, the total installed capacity of land wind, sea wind and photovoltaic in Germany will reach 110gw, 30GW and 200GW respectively.
Germany has always been an important promoter of the EU’s new energy development. Germany’s proposal of this draft legislation will help lead the EU to jointly accelerate the development of new energy.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has brought energy uncertainty and accelerated the process of replacing traditional energy with new energy from the perspectives of energy security and economy.
Natural gas is an important energy source for household heating in Germany. Previously, Russia was an important source of natural gas in Germany. Due to the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, on February 22 local time, Germany announced the suspension of the approval procedures for the “beixi-2” natural gas pipeline project. (1) From the perspective of energy security, new energy power generation does not rely on traditional fossil fuels, and the increase in the proportion of new energy power generation will contribute to better energy self-sufficiency; (2) From the perspective of economy, the price rise of traditional energy makes the economy of new energy power generation prominent. Therefore, the substitution process of new energy for traditional energy may be accelerated worldwide.
The certainty of high growth of global new energy installed capacity was further enhanced.
(1) driven by the goal of “carbon neutralization” in many countries, clean energy transformation and green recovery, CPIA expects that in 2022, China’s new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 75 ~ 90gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36 ~ 64%, and the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 195 ~ 240gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15 ~ 41%. (2) The situation in Russia and Ukraine has boosted the continuous rise of energy prices. The prices of natural gas and oil have reached a recent high. The rapid rise in the price of traditional energy will also promote overseas countries to accelerate the transformation to wind and solar renewable energy.
Investment suggestion: global new energy development is expected to speed up again.
Photovoltaic: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is mainly recommended to recommend Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Focus on Jingke energy. (2) In 2022q1, the price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, the shortage of structural supply and demand and other factors. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , especially Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power: (1) under the expectation that Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk analysis: the policy strength is less than expected; The cost reduction of the industrial chain was less than expected.
