what changes will the upcoming national two sessions bring to China's market? Will the international geopolitical situation continue to affect the market? What sectors are expected to be of concern during the two sessions? How should investors invest rationally? The reporter of the international finance news interviewed a number of experts with the above questions in order to seek answers
The national two sessions will be held soon in 2022. Under the background of repeated covid-19 epidemic outside China, unstable international geopolitical situation and increasing uncertainty of global economic recovery, the convening of the national two sessions is of great significance and will point out the direction for China's future development.
So, can the A-share market sweep away the haze and the market of the two sessions reappear? Which sectors deserve attention? How should investors invest?
The reporter of the international finance news interviewed a number of experts with the above questions in order to seek answers.
steady growth is more important
On the eve of the two sessions, the market paid close attention to the new trend of China's economic policy.
Wu chaoming, vice president of Caixin Research Institute, told the international finance news that since the first quarter, China's economic development has been under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected spread. At present, the supply shock has improved significantly. The focus of China's future economic policy is to improve the problems of demand contraction and expected spread.
Wu chaoming said that it is expected that the window period of monetary policy easing is still in progress. Before steady growth has achieved remarkable results, the pace of development should not exit prematurely, and it is not ruled out that the reserve requirement and interest rate will continue to be reduced in the first quarter; At the same time, the short-term focus of monetary policy is to achieve wide credit, stabilize the total amount of money and credit, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and achieve the goal of stable total amount and optimal structure. The three major areas of green and low carbon, scientific and technological innovation and inclusive small and micro enterprises remain the key support points.
Wu chaoming believes that the expenditure rhythm of fiscal policy is expected to be significantly ahead, and the expenditure intensity will also be significantly increased with the support of the balance funds carried forward last year. At the same time, structurally, fiscal policy will increase support for infrastructure investment and people's livelihood, so as to ensure a stable start of the economy in the first quarter.
He Jinlong, general manager of Meili investment, told the reporter of the international finance news that looking forward to 2022, China's economic growth has entered a new round of deceleration and shift period, and steady growth has been placed in a more important position under the complex internal and external circumstances of increasing downward pressure on the economy, overall upward inflation expectations and increasing interest rate hikes in major developed countries, It is expected that the general tone of monetary policy will turn to steady and loose, and the macro leverage ratio may pick up. In terms of policy instruments, structural policies may still be dominant, but the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can also be expected.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, pointed out that the monetary variable that has a great impact on A-Shares is the marginal change of the base currency. Since the RRR reduction in December 2021 released a large number of base currencies, the time point for the next adjustment of base currencies is probably the middle of April after the economic data of the first quarter are released. According to the latest PMI data, the economy recovered slightly from January to February. In April, the probability of releasing the base currency through excess continuous MLF is still high, but the probability of reducing the reserve requirement again is small.
two sessions or market catalyst
Is it really a good time to invest before and after the two sessions? Is the "two sessions market" worth looking forward to?
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, told the reporter of the international finance news that the A-share market has actually gradually started a rebound trend. It is expected that some leading stocks killed by mistake should have a better rebound opportunity, and the two sessions may also become a catalyst for the market.
\u3000\u3000 "During the two sessions over the years, the stock market tends to show a trend of first restraining and then rising. The two sessions are major events in China's political life, which may lay a political foundation and legal guarantee for the economic and social development of the whole year. Therefore, in the early stage of the two sessions, the market will wait and see the relevant developments and reduce the bet on the market trend, while in the later stage, the relevant trend is gradually clear and uncertain The elimination of the risk has contributed to increased investor confidence and optimism. " Shen Meng, director of Xiangsong capital, said in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news.
However, Shen Meng further pointed out that during the two sessions this year, the continued turmoil in the international geopolitical situation may cause violent fluctuations in the external market and may cause a certain negative pressure on the market of the two sessions.
Zuo Jianming, general manager of Xiaoyu assets, told the reporter of the international finance news that if the market in March is regarded as a football game, it can be divided into the first and second half.
Zuo Jianming said that the first half of the month was dominated by stability factors. The news was positive, regardless of the number of economic mergers in January and February or the proposals on behalf of the members; From the second half of the month, as the disclosure of the annual report enters the substantive stage, those lower than expected transcripts may affect the investment sentiment, and then the cautious sentiment rises. Looking back on the past decade, with the normal use of counter cyclical policies, the market of spring sowing and summer harvest in history no longer exists, and more excess returns need to be realized by deeply excavating the value of individual stocks.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that the follow-up national two sessions will be held, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will still be intensively implemented, and A-Shares are still in the policy dividend period.
Guosheng Securities believes that with the contradiction of the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the negotiation process, it shows that the probability of re upgrading is reduced, the end force of China's policy is properly advanced and the two sessions are expected to heat up, and the Shanghai index is expected to desensitize to the external disturbance and return to the rising channel.
rational view of market uncertainty
"There are many uncertain factors affecting the market this year, which can be said to be an eventful time." Yang Delong told the reporter of the international finance news. He pointed out that in January, the Federal Reserve began to release the signal to start raising interest rates as soon as possible. The global capital market experienced a wave of significant adjustments, and the A-share market was not spared. In February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused a new round of impact on the global capital market, the A-share market fell again, and the slowdown of China's economic growth also affected the sentiment of investors.
However, Yang Delong said that these negative factors have no substantive impact on the medium and long-term trend of the A-share market. After the early decline, the A-share market has fully released the risk. Under the environment of China's active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, the A-share market is expected to end the sharp decline before and gradually start to recover.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told the reporter of the international finance news that at present, we need to recognize that the uncertainty caused by geographical conflicts is still great, and there is the possibility of repeated shocks and bottom grinding in the market.
At the same time, Yuan Huaming also said that in the face of market uncertainties, there is no need to panic too much. At present, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is still short and partial, and will not change the medium and long-term pattern of China's economic improvement and the upward A-share market. Of course, don't be too optimistic to catch up. The external environment is very uncertain, and the market doesn't have the conditions for rapid rebound in the short term. Therefore, seeing more and moving less is a better investment strategy at present.
Shen Meng told the international finance news that the impact of increased geopolitical risks will be transmitted to A-Shares through various channels, but generally speaking, the support of A-Shares during the two sessions will gradually increase.
"As for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we give two evolution paths." Zuo Jianming told the reporter of the international finance news that first, the two sides have reached a settlement in the short term, so that the world economy will soon return to its original track of operation. We can also formulate fiscal and monetary policies in accordance with the established economic objectives, which has a limited impact on the stock market; Second, the situation is further intensified, which will bring substantial fluctuations to energy, food, medical treatment and even global financial markets. On the one hand, China is a large manufacturing country, and the price of crude oil is at the top of US $100, which is bound to increase China's manufacturing costs and logistics costs, thus putting pressure on CPI; On the other hand, Russia faces economic sanctions. Selling gold reserves to avoid foreign debt is a predictable option, which will enhance the risk aversion of the whole market.
these sectors deserve attention
"I think this year's two sessions should focus on boosting consumption, developing new energy and vigorously developing the science and technology industry. Therefore, it is expected that the leading stocks of new energy, consumption white horse stocks and some science and technology stocks should still benefit." Yang Delong told the reporter of the international finance news.
With regard to the consumer sector, Yang Delong believes that in the past year, the consumer sector has experienced a slowdown in performance growth and a sharp decline in valuation due to the impact of the epidemic and strict control. The decline in the consumer sector is relatively large, and some leading consumer stocks even fell by more than 40%. However, consumption is the most important engine to promote China's GDP growth. In the troika, consumption has exceeded the contribution of investment and export, ranking first. Therefore, promoting consumption is an important measure to stabilize economic growth this year.
"Consumption of white horse stocks is a sector that can cross the bull bear cycle." Yang Delong further pointed out that the steady economic growth in recent years is mainly due to the active efforts of fiscal and monetary policies and the adoption of more scientific, reasonable and accurate measures in epidemic control. On the one hand, we should ensure the safety of people's lives and prevent the spread of the epidemic through epidemic control. On the other hand, we should also stabilize the growth of consumption.
With regard to the new energy sector, Yang Delong pointed out that since this year, the new energy sector has made a significant adjustment, not because the prosperity of the industry has deteriorated, nor is the performance of listed companies less than expected. In fact, the prosperity of new energy is still very high, both in terms of the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power. According to the annual reports of listed companies, the performance of most leading new energy stocks is also very bright. Therefore, the adjustment of new energy this year actually belongs to valuation adjustment. After substantial adjustment, the characteristics of oversold have become more obvious. Recently, the new energy sector has begun to show signs of oversold rebound.
Yang Delong said that when new energy has made a substantial adjustment and oversold, it is a valuable investment suggestion to bargain hunting the layout of new energy leading stocks or new energy funds to seize the opportunity of oversold rebound.
Shen Meng told the reporter of the international finance news that from the announcement of the important meeting at the end of last year, the main line of continuing to promote economic transformation and upgrading and focusing on stability remains unchanged. Therefore, the benefit sector, science and technology sector and consumption sector of economic structure reform remain the core concern.
"This year, we are strategically bullish on China's B-share market." Zuo Jianming told the reporter of the international finance news. He believes that, on the one hand, this is a mini sector that is almost completely closed. In the past three years, it has not benefited from the growth of the scale of China's public and private equity funds, so its valuation is still low. At present, most B shares have more than double the price difference compared with A-Shares of the same company; On the other hand, the path of B shares landing in Hong Kong stocks by introducing listing has been completed. In the foreseeable period of this year, Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) have solved the problems left over by history in this form. Referring to the previous cases of CIMC, Vanke and Lizhu, the good conversion yield may further stimulate investors' attention to China's B-share market.
In addition, Zuo Jianming suggested that investors can pay attention to the opportunities in the gold and jewelry sector periodically. The consumption amount of this year's Spring Festival has reversed the previous downward trend for seven consecutive years, which deserves intensive attention, because leading enterprises frequently expand franchise stores through the provincial generation model, so as to deeply excavate the consumption upgrading of third and fourth tier cities, so the industry concentration is increasing rapidly.
Hu Bo, manager of Rongzhi investment fund under private placement paipai.com, said that from the perspective of the central bank's monetary policy, this year may be an overall environment of stabilizing currency and broadening credit. Therefore, under this environment, the direction guided by government investment may be a better investment track. The attitude of steady growth this year may be relatively clear, so the overall layout of this year can focus on the infrastructure and other industry sectors related to steady growth. On the other hand, due to the lack of long-term growth space, it is difficult to place too high expectations on the industry sectors related to steady growth. It is more likely that they should be viewed from the perspective of defense and configuration.
Guosheng securities suggested that in terms of operation, before the effective upward breakthrough in the market, we should still control the overall position and be suitable for low absorption. "Stable growth" and "expectations of the two sessions" will become the main logic driving the operation of the market. We should pay attention to traditional infrastructure such as building materials, as well as undervalued sectors such as bank insurance. We suggest that we should properly layout the digital economy, central enterprise reform Fully adjust the theme sectors such as new energy guide.
focus on potential investment risks
So, what risks should investors pay attention to in the investment process?
Yang Delong told the reporter of the international finance news that at present, the main investment risk is the risk of increased market volatility, and there may be the risk of marginalization in the allocation of underperforming stocks. He believes that value investment has become the mainstream concept of investment, so it is still necessary to allocate blue chip stocks with long-term investment value.
Shen Meng said that external factors are still the biggest uncertain hidden danger at present. Therefore, in addition to paying attention to the expected positive impact of the two sessions, investors should not ignore the influence of various black swan events on the global market.
In addition, Zuo Jianming pointed out, "the lifting of the ban is a problem that we have to face."
According to Zuo Jianming's analysis, the past three years have been the stage of large-scale expansion of IPO. The registration system has stimulated a number of high-quality companies to quickly enter the capital market. At the same time, it has also created a large number of shell companies, and they often have investment companies or arbitrage funds behind them. According to the lifting rules, after 12 months of listing, small Fei can circulate, while after 36 months of listing, big Fei will be free. In the past, it was possible to delay the reduction of holdings through block trading, but now, since the original shares need to be locked for six months after taking over the order before listing, block traders are also in a wait-and-see state. Thus, institutions holding large and small non restricted shares will naturally pour into the secondary market once they can circulate.
Zuo Jianming said that the net reduction of industrial capital in the past two years has reached trillions. This year, when fund raising has entered a downward trend, the power of taking orders has been greatly reduced, which faces the risk of tilting the market balance.
