On Monday, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to affect the nerves of the global capital market. Although the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine was gradually promoted, the risk aversion of overseas funds was still strong. The prices of gold and crude oil rose again yesterday, while the equity market was depressed. The futures contracts of the three major indexes of US stocks fell collectively at night, and the opening of the Moscow stock exchange in Russia was postponed.
In contrast, the independence of the A-share market began to appear. Yesterday, although the three major A-share indexes collectively opened lower under the influence of the overseas situation, they all fluctuated higher and closed red across the board. The quarterly adjustment of MSCI, an international index company, took effect yesterday, triggering the accelerated entry of foreign capital in the late trading, and the net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was 2.047 billion yuan.
strong risk aversion in overseas markets
The situation in Russia and Ukraine is still complicated and confusing, and the market focus has gradually shifted to the negotiation process between the two countries.
For this negotiation, the office of the president of Ukraine has said that the talks between the two delegations in Belarus will be without preconditions; Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, said that Russia would not stop military operations during negotiations with Ukraine, which Russia had informed Ukraine in advance.
The trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain, and the risk aversion of overseas funds is heating up again. Yesterday, Comex gold rose by more than 2.5%, reaching a maximum of $1935.2 per ounce; Brent crude oil rose by more than 7% at one time, reaching a maximum of US $101.28/barrel.
As of press time, the three major index futures of US stocks fell collectively in the night trading. The largest decline of Nasdaq 100 futures small contract was more than 3.5%, and the largest decline of S & P 500 futures contract and Dow Jones futures contract was about 2%.
The Central Bank of Russia decided yesterday to postpone the opening of foreign exchange and money market transactions on the Moscow exchange, and there will be no currency repurchase transactions or settlement in the money market. The Central Bank of Russia also announced the suspension of securities dealers from accepting the entrustment of foreign investors to sell Russian securities.
said Cui Rong, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) overseas Macro Analyst. Historically, the impact of geopolitical crisis on the international capital market is mainly characterized by “emotional fluctuation, fast reflection, long duration and small follow-up impact”. The impact is mainly reflected in the “V” shape trend of asset price shock, and the depth of the “V” shape depends on the strength of geopolitical influence.
a-share three major indexes are popular across the board
In contrast, China’s capital market has gradually got rid of the emotional disturbance. Although the three major A-share indexes opened lower yesterday, they have been stronger since then, and closed red across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 346231 points, up 0.32%; Shenzhen composite index reported 1345573 points, up 0.32%; The gem index was reported at 288131 points, up 0.89%.
A-share port and shipping sector performed prominently, leading the rise all day yesterday Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) gained the “one word limit” for the second consecutive trading day, and Ningbo Marine Company Limited(600798) also increased the limit. The leading centralized transportation company with a market value of 100 billion Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) rose 7.82%, and Cosco Shipping Development Company Limited(601866) , Chang Jiang Shipping Group Phoenix Co.Ltd(000520) and others rose more than 4%.
On the news, the Ukrainian border defense Bureau said it would temporarily close the border ports with Russia, Belarus and the areas along the Dniester River from the 28th.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) transportation chief Han Jun believes that the global centralized transportation supply chain is always in a tight state and “has no resistance to the impact of any event”. Historically, the blocking of Suez Canal and Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) suspension have led to nonlinear sudden changes in freight rates. Although the container transportation in and out of the Black Sea is a relatively small trade, the continuous escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may have a great impact on the global container supply chain and greatly delay the recovery speed of the global supply chain.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the formal entry into force of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) is expected to catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports in the medium and long term. With the formal entry into force of RCEP, Member States will immediately implement zero tariffs on a large number of products. In the future, 90% of products will enjoy zero tariffs in about 10 years. It is estimated that by 2030, RCEP is expected to drive the net increase of exports of Member States by US $519 billion, and the growth of medium and long-term foreign trade volume will catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports.
foreign capital accelerated entry in late trading
On the morning of February 10, Beijing time, MSCI, an international index compilation company, announced its quarterly adjustment results of the index in February 2022, which took effect after the closing on February 28.
In this adjustment, the MSCI global standard index will add 21 new shares to the MSCI global standard index in this adjustment, adding 21 new shares to the MSCI global standard index, including nine A shares. The targets of the MSCI global standard index in this adjustment, which include nine A shares. The targets are Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; Remove 11 shares at the same time, but do not involve the subject matter of a shares.
Affected by this, the inflow of northbound funds accelerated late yesterday, indicating that foreign capital is allocating A-Shares according to the index adjustment. Based on the amount of use, the maximum net purchase amount of northbound funds in the call auction stage at the end of yesterday reached 15.7 billion yuan. Based on the actual net purchase amount, northbound funds bought a net 2.047 billion yuan yesterday.
Among the 9 A-share targets included in MSCI global standard index this time, Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) has the largest market value (previously removed due to the proportion of foreign shares exceeding the upper limit). The change of the stock at the end of the trading is more obvious. According to the time-sharing data, 130000 hands of the stock were sold in large volume in the call auction at the end of yesterday, with a corresponding transaction amount of 478 million yuan, accounting for 21% of its total transaction volume throughout the day.
Although the uncertainty of the overseas situation is still great, the trend of foreign capital increasing the position of A-Shares has not changed. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative net purchase amount of northbound funds has reached 20.754 billion yuan. Industry insiders believe that China’s economic prospects and epidemic prevention and control remain positive, the valuation advantages of superimposed A-Shares are gradually emerging, and the long-term inflow of foreign capital into the A-share market remains unchanged.
The stock strategy analyst team of Goldman Sachs Group believes that the opening and reform momentum of China’s capital market makes the A-share market more valuable and accessible to international investors. It is expected that international investors will continue to pay attention to and allocate A-Shares in 2022, and the annual net purchase scale of northbound funds is expected to reach US $75 billion, about more than 470 billion yuan.
