In the past few months, "steady growth" is an investment keyword recognized by most institutions, and the market focus is basically biased towards the undervalued sector, but the recent growth stock market has obviously warmed up. Market participants said that the market is in the repair period of risk appetite, which is conducive to the performance of growth stocks.
The latest combing by the reporter of China Securities Journal found that in the A-share strategy report in March, many securities companies have turned their attention to the growth track. "Prosperity is still dominant", "valuation is no longer at a disadvantage" and "favorable expectation of industrial policy" are the main reasons to be bullish.
risk appetite repair
Geopolitical events are the focus of the recent market. However, from the perspective of the trend of a shares, the overall performance of the market is stable except for the extreme reaction on February 24. On February 28, when the northbound funds once had a net outflow in the session, they scrambled to raise funds in the late session, with a net inflow of 2.047 billion yuan throughout the day. This shows that in the current global environment, the stable performance of the A-share market has significantly improved its attraction to foreign capital.
In terms of turnover, the market is in the process of popularity recovery. Data show that from January 21 to February 22, the daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to be less than 1 trillion yuan; From February 23 to February 25, the daily turnover of the two cities returned to above 1 trillion yuan, of which the turnover reached 1.36 trillion yuan on the 24th.
"From the market level, with the gradual recovery of transactions after the Spring Festival and the gradual landing of risk events, the market risk appetite is expected to stabilize and recover." Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) strategy team said.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that as the market's panic about the Fed's interest rate hike has eased, the transaction congestion has dropped to a record low, the main funds return and increase their positions in advance, and the continuous inflow of ETF incremental funds, growth tracks such as medicine and new energy are expected to lead the market to carry out phased repair.
growth track rebound
On February 28, A-share growth track stocks represented by lithium batteries, photovoltaic and semiconductors rebounded Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Hewang electric and other individual stocks hit record highs, Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) rose by more than 9%.
In line with the market, many securities companies have recently begun to look at more growth track stocks. The reporter found that there are three main reasons to be bullish.
First of all, from a fundamental point of view, growth tracks such as new energy still maintain a high profile China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) tracked industrial chain data show that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January was not weak in the off-season, and the month on month decline was much lower than that in the same period last year; 1. The installed capacity of yueyuefu exceeded expectations, and the output of the head assembly factory increased month on month in the first quarter of this year; The pattern of chip supply shortage has not been significantly alleviated.
"In March, A-Shares entered the performance intensive disclosure period of the annual report. The prosperity of the growth sector with sufficient early adjustment was dominant, and the cost performance began to appear." Said Hu guopeng, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) chief strategist.
Secondly, compared with the undervalued sector, the valuation of growth stocks is no longer at a disadvantage Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) strategic analyst Zhang Xinyuan said that the "key logic" of the valuation repair of real estate chain, infrastructure chain, banking stocks and construction stocks has appeared, and the "strongest expectation" of the valuation repair of stocks damaged by the epidemic has also appeared. The subsequent market needs to be driven by profits, and the indexes of power innovation, semiconductor, medicine and other industries have been adjusted to the support of the "key logic" since 2020, No longer at a valuation disadvantage.
Finally, growth stocks have industrial policy catalytic expectations Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) strategy analyst Yan Xiang predicted that industrial policies may be issued during this year's important meeting, which is optimistic about the performance of technology growth companies under the zhugra cycle of emerging industries.
focus on Pan power chain opportunities
In terms of the specific allocation strategy of the growth track, Hu guopeng believes that under the combination of "economic bottom + wide currency", with the gradual reduction of the cost performance of undervalued varieties, growth stocks are expected to become a track with high certainty, including: (1) hard technology industry in the field of digital economy. The 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy issued in January defines the development direction of science and technology industry with digital economy as the core, the demand of relevant hardware industries is clear, and there is still room for improvement in performance growth. (2) A new energy field with high prospect. The global economy continues to increase the development of new energy, and the medium and long-term demand will continue to increase. With the gradual launch of new production capacity of upstream raw materials such as industrial silicon and silicon materials, the cost pressure continues to decline, accelerating the energy revolution. (3) Pharmaceutical and biological industry with high cost performance. The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biological sector has lagged behind in the past year. After a year of valuation correction, it is now at the absolute bottom. With the normalization of centralized purchase of medicine, the impact on the performance of the industry has gradually become clear, multiple bad news has gradually cleared up, and the oversold rebound has taken shape. Generally speaking, it is suggested to focus on the computer, power equipment, medicine and biology sectors.
Zhang Xinyuan said that although the trend relative income opportunity of the pan power chain will not open until the second quarter, it has entered a better layout stage: (1) at present, the power new index (CITIC level I) is at the level of 52% of the valuation quantile in recent ten years and 45% of the valuation quantile since the end of 2019, while the annual report of 2021 and the first quarter report of 2022 are expected to continue to pull the undervalued quantile, The attraction of incremental funds is expected to increase. (2) After the second quarter, the focus of domestic and foreign policies is expected to return to energy transformation.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the value sector has seen excess returns since mid December last year, and the growth sector is expected to gradually dominate. It is suggested to focus on wind power, photovoltaic, UHV, cloud computing and data center.
