On Monday (February 28 local time), the German climate department proposed a new draft legislation to advance the target of 100% renewable energy power generation to 2035, 15 years ahead of the previous target. In order to achieve this goal, the Department also proposed the renewable energy installation plan before 2035, which will be voted by all ministries and commissions. Among them, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic will gradually increase from 7gw in 2022 to 20GW in 2028, and then maintain this level until 2035. Based on this calculation, the installed CAGR in Germany will reach 32% from 2021 to 2025.
In the draft, the Ministry of economic affairs will increase the power generation capacity of onshore wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) facilities by about three times, and the offshore wind power generation capacity will more than double
The onshore wind power generation capacity will increase from 3 GW this year to 10 GW in 2027, and the power generation capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) will increase from 7 GW this year to 20 GW in 2028.
Offshore wind power facilities are also a key part of the plan, and Germany expects its power generation capacity to rise from 30 gigawatts in 2030 to 70 gigawatts in 2045.
In this regard, the agency said that it is expected that the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) development in Europe will enter a new acceleration stage, and is expected to achieve a compound growth rate of 30% - 35% in the next five years, driving the growth of global installed capacity.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : Germany plans to legislate to accelerate the development of photovoltaic, with firm confidence in energy independence
For the new draft legislation proposed by the German climate department, Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) said that 1 and policies continued to upgrade, and the acceleration of German photovoltaic is expected to be further strengthened last December, the German new government coalition proposed a similar goal of achieving more than 80% of renewable energy power by 2030, and the cumulative installed capacity of this year was 200GW The objectives set in this draft legislation are similar to the above objectives in scale, with the difference that clear guidelines are given for the annual installed capacity, so as to further strengthen the high growth expectation of the German photovoltaic market.
2. The goal is likely to be achieved one of the core reasons for the German government's strong support for new energy may be to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas. 40% of Europe's natural gas depends on Russian imports. In recent years, due to geopolitical factors, the proportion of Russian imports has declined, pushing up European electricity prices. European natural gas is expected to remain relatively tight in 2022. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has further exacerbated European concerns about natural gas supply. Therefore, it is urgent to get rid of energy dependence on Russia. We expect that the development of all European countries will enter a new acceleration stage, and it is expected to achieve a compound growth rate of 30% - 35% in the next five years, driving the growth of global installed capacity.
3. Under the strong demand, Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) continues to be firmly optimistic about the photovoltaic sector, it is suggested to lay out the following main lines:
1) integrated enterprises with improved profits ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jingke energy) and inverters ( Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Hemai shares, etc.);
2) films with tight supply and demand and high profit ( Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ) and silicon ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , etc.);
3) glass ( Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi optical energy) and tracking support ( Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) );
4) high quality leaders in other segments Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , etc.
CICC: energy price rise caused by political conflict or accelerating the process of replacing traditional energy with new energy in Europe
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that Russia Ukraine geopolitical conflict caused energy prices to rise, or accelerated the process of replacing traditional energy with new energy in the world, especially in Europe 2020 Russia is the second largest natural gas producer in the world, and more than 30% of the natural gas in Europe is supplied by Russia. With the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, ice Dutch TTF natural gas futures, known as the wind vane of European natural gas prices, increased from 80.7 euros to 102.5 euros, up 26.8%. On the one hand, the rising cost of traditional energy is expected to further highlight the "more economical" attribute of photovoltaic new energy; On the other hand, new energy power generation does not rely on fuel resources to achieve "safer" energy self-sufficiency. Belgian energy minister recently said: "the EU must accelerate the transformation of green energy."
Germany plans to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2035, 15 years ahead of the original plan Germany's Ministry of climate and energy proposed to accelerate the expansion of renewable energy capacity. Relevant personnel said that the purpose of the amendment is not only climate protection, but also related to reducing Germany's dependence on energy imports (especially Russia). At present, the new plan has entered the departmental consultation procedure, and the installation of new energy has accelerated. In particular, the target installation of photovoltaic is 200GW, which corresponds to an average annual increase of more than 10GW in Germany in the next 15 years, double that in 2021, and the market space is huge.
Policies resonate with fundamentals, and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) continues to recommend: 1) inverter links with both volume and price Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Hemai; Film growth target with capacity expansion and cost improvement Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 2) China household photovoltaic leader Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) ; 3) Component links with continuous improvement of concentration and high elasticity of profit this year and next Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jingke energy, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012)
German renewable energy "big step"? The latest draft will advance the target of 100% green power supply by 15 years
international news detonates A-share and Hong Kong stock photovoltaic sectors! How to select the target under the resonance of policy + Fundamentals? (attached shares)
