Due to the disturbance of overseas markets over the weekend, the overall performance of A-Shares on Monday (February 28) was relatively resistant to decline and walked out of the bottom recovery pattern. In early trading, the trend of Shanghai index was weak, while the trend of gem index and Shenzhen composite index was slightly stronger under the performance of track stocks; In the afternoon, the stock indexes turned red one after another, but the contraction picked up throughout the day, which is worthy of further observation.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the index continues to maintain the bottom, with obvious signs of bottoming. However, after all, the long-term trend lines of major indexes mostly fall below, and it is difficult to judge whether they can rally popularity again and directly form a reversal for the time being. However, in the past two weeks, the market has recovered its profit effect. Under the premise of grasping flexible positions and strict stop losses, it can participate in the adjustment of the intraday market, especially , which is obviously stronger against the broader market.
From the technical point of view, Dongguan securities mentioned that the stock index rose slightly in the shock on Monday, closing two consecutive positives, market sentiment rebounded, capital inflows from the north were obvious at the end of the trading, and the short-term technical aspects were repaired, with the gradual clarification of external disturbance factors, the market may be expected to stabilize gradually, and pay attention to the change of volume and energy , it is suggested to pay attention to finance, building materials Steel, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
For the future, Ping An Securities said that the A-share market is still dominated by shocks, but structural opportunities are expected to increase, and the overall performance will be better than that in February after March, with the release of economic data, the policy statements of the two sessions and the performance of listed companies, the uncertainty of the market is gradually reduced, and the market bottom will be closer and closer . Structurally, it is suggested to focus on the energy and chemical sector that benefits from the expected catalysis of rising energy prices, and the policy direction represented by information + green energy new infrastructure.
AVIC Securities believes that the first quarter and the second quarter of 2022 will be the window period for China's steady growth policy. from the perspective of counter cyclical regulation and RMB, the overall opportunities of A-Shares may be mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. At present, the value style of A-Shares has a stage outperforming Foundation .
In terms of strategy, the agency further analyzed that controlled the overall position and excavated the relevant stocks with continuous outbreak of fundamentals . It is suggested to take steady growth and strategic support as the main line and lay out high-quality tracks with low value, strong certainty and core competitiveness. For example, high-quality developers, new and old infrastructure and sectors with the potential to develop new businesses after the release of real estate credit risk, such as digital economy, new materials and new energy.
Macroscopically, Huaxin securities mentioned that under the disturbance of Russia, Ukraine and Western forces, Ukraine has become a "arena" for the game of great powers. Europe and the United States have adopted economic sanctions against Russia, increasing the pressure of overseas stagflation. The intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the aggravation of the supply gap of some bulk commodities. With the superposition of European and American sanctions, the global prices of crude oil, metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) are rising, the global inflationary pressure is increasing, and the probability of subsequent stagflation increases in combination with the current downward pressure on overseas economy. The pace of monetary policy normalization of overseas central banks may slow down, affected by the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the uncertainty of monetary policy of overseas central banks has increased, and the market's expectation of a substantial interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in March has cooled .
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that China's financial and economic environment is stable, A-Shares are still promising, and pay attention to cost performance in the short term . Compared with overseas liquidity contraction, high inflation and other adverse factors, China's financial and economic environment is relatively stable. With the support of policies, the downstream demand can gradually recover. The emergence of the economic bottom will significantly boost the market, but in the short term, we need to pay attention to the cost performance and alpha value of allocation. The main line of the industry is still to focus on the areas that benefit from the national long-term strategic support or the support of short-term stable growth policies.
In terms of operational strategy, YueKai Securities pointed out that recent geopolitical conflict + interest rate increase expectation will continue to disturb the market, and foreign capital may be disturbed in the short term. However, combined with the market performance, it has less impact on the consumption sector and more significant impact on the high valuation TMT sector .
In addition, march will usher in the convening of the heavyweight conference. Looking at the overall situation, we expect the market to remain stable during the two sessions. On the whole, the market is dominated by structural rebound and oversold repair . In terms of layout ideas, maintain balanced configuration:
1) steady growth can be attacked and defended . In terms of fundamentals, we expect that steady growth will still be the main market. Due to the data vacuum at this stage, the bottom supporting effect of the steady growth policy on the economy remains to be observed. If the transmission from wide currency to wide credit to the real economy is smooth, the focus of steady growth in the next stage will be to boost domestic demand; If the transmission path is not smooth and the data shows that the economy is still facing great pressure, the infrastructure investment base may expand to infrastructure real estate. In this scenario, we can pay attention to new and old infrastructure and large finance (banks, real estate and post cycle chain of real estate).
2) reproduce the scarce growth of cost performance . Based on the performance of foreign capital after being disturbed by the impact, not all overvalued sectors have been abandoned. Advantageous industries with core competitiveness have better anti risk and anti fluctuation ability. Under the energy revolution, the new energy development road represented by "scenery hydrogen storage" has a long slope and thick snow, and the long-term layout value will be reproduced after adjustment.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that in terms of industry configuration, (1) focus on the real estate sector . Recently, the real estate market has begun to gradually release the expected repair signal, and the willingness of enterprises to acquire land has increased. Some local governments have successively issued favorable policies, such as increasing the loan amount, reducing the down payment ratio and reducing the loan interest rate, in order to boost market demand and protect the mood of the real estate market. We believe that under the current fundamentals, the importance of stabilizing the real estate market has further increased. The valuation of the real estate sector is still at a historical low, and the recovery of profit expectation is expected to continue the repair market of the real estate sector. It is suggested to focus on high-quality private enterprises.
(2) focus on the concept of digital economy . The launch of the project of "counting from the east to the west" marks the gradual implementation of digital economy strategies and policies. Under the development trend of global digital economy, it is suggested to focus on opportunities in subdivided directions such as new digital infrastructure, big data and digital skill improvement.
(3) focus on the national defense industry . The defense and military industry sector is both defensive and valuation guarantee. The repair market may continue. It is recommended to continue to pay attention.
(4) focus on the semiconductor sector . We believe that the centralized production after the outbreak has also greatly improved China's production technology and experience in relevant parts. At present, the global supply of semiconductors is still tight, and the supply chain may be impacted again under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the valuation of the semiconductor sector has been digested since this year. It is suggested to focus on the bottom opportunity formed after the oversold of relevant sectors for many months.
(5) focus on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery . The breeding sector has experienced in-depth adjustment again, but the introduction of favorable policies is expected to give a certain boost. With the gradual decline of the epidemic disturbance, driving the gradual improvement of the consumer side and the opening of the de capacity at the supply side, the pig industry may gradually enter the upward cycle. It is suggested to pay continuous attention and introduce it in time.
