An "epic" renewable energy development goal was announced in Germany yesterday.
It is reported that the German climate department proposed a new draft legislation on February 28 to advance the goal of 100% renewable energy power generation to 2035, 15 years ahead of the previous goal. In order to achieve this goal, Germany also proposed the renewable energy installation plan before 2035, which will be voted by various ministries and commissions. Among them, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic will gradually increase from 7 GW in 2022 to 20 GW in 2028, and then maintain this level until 2035.
In the view of the industry, this will create a new benchmark for the global renewable energy revolution and inject new impetus into the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
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plan ahead
Germany wants to significantly increase photovoltaic installation
In December last year, the new coalition government of Germany proposed to achieve a similar goal of more than 80% of renewable energy power by 2030, and the cumulative installed capacity of this session will reach 200 GW. Although the goal set in this draft legislation is similar to the above goal in scale, the former gives clear guidelines for annual installation, which further strengthens the expectation of high growth of German photovoltaic market.
According to the above installed capacity guidelines, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of installed capacity in Germany will reach 32% from 2021 to 2025.
The German Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry association previously said that in addition to the improvement of climate awareness, the main driving forces behind the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity also include consumers' striving for greater independence of energy choice, the substantial reduction of photovoltaic technology prices and the improvement of subsidy conditions for heating systems.
In addition, Germany is launching an initiative to support the construction of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) projects on agricultural land. The package plan jointly announced by the ministers of agriculture, climate and environment last month will enable agricultural photovoltaic power plants to obtain the support and promotion of Germany's renewable energy law, so that land can be used for power generation and farming at the same time. Relevant departments in the country estimate that this move may bring an additional photovoltaic installed capacity of 200 GW.
CEM zdemir, the German Minister of agriculture, said the proposals represented "a win-win situation for climate, nature and agriculture. The three ministries have set out to ensure the most smooth communication between agricultural demand, energy production and nature conservation."
Bundesverband solarwirtschaft (BSW), the German Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) trade association, recently warned that obstacles need to be removed in order to achieve the target of 200 GW. The association welcomed the government's proposal for agricultural photovoltaic, but also expressed the need to expand the current "very strict" construction site framework for the new Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power station.
Carsten krnig, chief executive of BSW, said, "the proposal submitted by federal ministries is a step in the right direction, but it is not enough. It is foreseeable that the lack of sites for the construction of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power plants will become an investment obstacle."
These measures are part of the new German coalition government's plan to achieve more than 80% renewable power generation within nine years. In 2020, this figure is only 45%.
get rid of dependence on natural gas imports
new energy becomes the first choice
"We believe that this goal is more likely to be achieved." One of the core reasons for the German government's strong support for new energy may be to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas, a brokerage researcher said on the 1st. 40% of Europe's natural gas depends on imports from Russia. In recent years, due to geopolitical factors, the proportion of Russian gas imports has declined, driving the rise of European electricity prices. It is expected that the supply of natural gas in Europe will remain relatively tight in 2022. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has further exacerbated European concerns about natural gas supply. Therefore, it is urgent to get rid of energy import dependence.
He predicted that the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) development in Europe will enter a new acceleration stage, and is expected to achieve a compound growth rate of 30% - 35% in the next five years, driving the growth of global installed capacity.
German Economy Minister Robert habeck said recently that the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war prompted Germany to change its energy plan and may expand the use of coal in the future to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. However, extending the use of coal beyond 2030 may pose risks. In the long run, there is no alternative to renewable energy in terms of energy security.
Germany's energy supply is heavily dependent on imports, and more than half of its natural gas supply comes from Russia. As a large manufacturing country, German industry accounts for 35% of natural gas consumption. If the price of natural gas rises further, it may bring a heavy blow to the country's energy intensive industry.
China's photovoltaic industry gets another boost
As a large European country that has always led the development of renewable energy, Germany's increase in installed capacity is expected to boost China's photovoltaic industry.
How important is the European market to China's photovoltaic industry? Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, recently said at the online seminar on the development review of the photovoltaic industry in 2021 and the situation outlook in 2022 that the most noteworthy regional distribution of China's photovoltaic product exports last year was Europe. The European market increased the most last year, and it is the largest export market of photovoltaic products in China, accounting for nearly 40% of the total export. From the perspective of components, Europe also leapt over Asia to become China's largest export market, accounting for 43.9%.
According to the data of Jibang consulting, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity in Germany reached 5.26 GW in 2021, an increase of about 8% over 4.88 GW in 2020. By the end of 2021, the cumulative Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity of the country has reached 66.5 GW.
Germany previously announced that the total bidding amount of photovoltaic projects in 2022 was 6 GW, including 3.6 GW for large power station projects and 2.3 GW for roof projects. At present, Germany has launched the first bidding in 2022, and the deadline for bidding is March 1.
New analysts of CICC believe that the purpose of this amendment is not only climate protection, but also related to reducing Germany's dependence on energy imports. The new plan has entered the departmental consultation process, and the installation of new energy will be accelerated. Based on the target installed capacity of 200 gigawatts of photovoltaic, the average annual installed capacity of Germany in the next 15 years is more than 10 gigawatts, double that in 2021, and the market space is huge.
Deng Yongkang, chief analyst of Minsheng power new, said that in the short term, from the industry tracking data, the production scheduling of first-line component factories continued to improve after the year. The production scheduling in the first quarter is expected to increase marginally and rapidly compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The rush loading in overseas India, Japan, South Korea, Poland and other places in the first quarter also supported the demand. It has been verified that the off-season in the first quarter is not light. In the medium term, after the last round of game in March, the price of the industrial chain went down and the demand burst was the trend. At present, China's bidding speed up, and centralized power stations in South America, the Middle East and other places are waiting to start. This year, the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be more than 230 GW, with a growth rate of more than 50%.
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