Report guide
The latest tracking of airport, aviation and tax exemption sectors in the fourth week of February.
Key investment points
Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries this week (February 21-february 25) were - 2.22% and - 3.14% respectively, ranking 19th and 22nd respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by - 1.67%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (February 21 to February 25), the cumulative growth of tourism retail, tourism and scenic spots, airports, hotels and restaurants were + 0.0%, - 4.7%, - 5.2%, - 5.6% respectively, ranking 57th, 122nd, 124th and 129th respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from February 19 to February 25, China reported 581 local confirmed cases (295 cases last week), mainly in Inner Mongolia (Hohhot and Baotou), Liaoning Province (Huludao), Jiangsu Province (Suzhou), Guangdong Province (Shenzhen), Sichuan Province (Chengdu), Hubei Province (Wuhan) Yunnan Province (Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Dehong Dai and Jingpo autonomous prefecture), etc. 2) Global: from February 19 to February 25, there were about 9.88 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, a month on month increase of - 26%; The number of deaths increased by 59615, a month on month increase of - 19%. 3) United States: from February 19 to February 25, about 510000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, down 36% month on month; There were 13900 new deaths, down 15% month on month. 4) UK: from February 19 to February 25, about 260000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the UK, down 21% month on month; A total of 849 deaths were added, down 18% month on month.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of February 25, the country had reported about 3.11 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; The third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen vaccination. About 5.55 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from February 19 to February 25, with a month on month decrease of 0.5%. 2) Global:
According to our world in data, as of February 25, about 10.7 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 63% of the world's population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: civil aviation passenger volume in the first 40 days of Spring Festival Travel + 13% year-on-year 1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 10942 from February 19 to February 25, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year in 2021, 189% and - 27.5% respectively year-on-year in 2020 and 2019, and a decrease of 5.9% month-on-month last week.
2) Spring Festival civil aviation data tracking: on the 40th day of the Spring Festival transportation, the passenger transport volume was about 1.42 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of 21 years + 8%, 20 years + 212% and 19 years - 16%. During the 40 day Spring Festival travel, the total number of passengers reached 39.82 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 13% in 21 years, + 2% in 20 years and - 45% in 19 years.
3) Airport: from February 21 to February 25, according to the data of flight control, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 843, 636, 414, 989 and 570 respectively, which were + 1%, + 1%, - 25%, - 6% and - 18% respectively, which were mainly affected by the epidemic situation in Guangdong and the strict epidemic prevention policies in Beijing.
4) 60 Vontron Technology Co.Ltd(000920) 21 performance express: the company's operating revenue in 2021 was 3.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.38%; The net profit was -1.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.11%.
5) capital airport 2021 performance express: it is expected that the net loss in 2021 will range from about RMB 2.09 billion to about RMB 2.15 billion, while the audited net loss in 2020 will be about RMB 2.035 billion.
6) aviation department: from February 21 to February 25, according to the data of flying standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 994, 1942, 1704, 510, 350 and 188 respectively, with the average of - 1.3%, + 5.6%, - 0.4%, + 2.1%, + 4.7% and + 6.3% respectively.
Tax exemption: tax exemption discounts on outlying islands remained unchanged month on month
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from February 19 to February 25, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 413 and 466 respectively, a decrease of 3% and 11% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 54252, a decrease of 21.8% month on month, mainly due to the high base during the Spring Festival transportation
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the tax-free discounts of direct mail, Haifa control, China free outlying islands, China travel investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China's transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
