The rising cost of raw materials and the pressure on traditional sales channels have made "price increase" a high-frequency word from condiments to snacks and drinks since 2021, and many enterprises have announced price increases to varying degrees. After a wave of price rise, the actual implementation of dealers and physical stores, and whether terminal consumption has been impacted? The price policy of subsequent listed companies and how to deal with the rise of raw materials?
The financial Associated Press reporter learned through various channels that dealers and physical stores have successively started to implement new prices. The terminal consumption is relatively weak after the Spring Festival. Raising prices may temporarily relieve the cost side pressure for enterprises, but whether they can improve profits and performance depends on their own strength and price transmission effect.
brand dealers follow up, and the price increase power of small brands is insufficient
"Prices have risen, and there are no varieties that have not. The wholesale price of 108G Chacha melon seed new packaging is 152 yuan / piece (32 packs), compared with 135 yuan / piece previously". A dealer in Gaoqiao market, which specializes in Chacha food series products, told reporters that the current inventory is about 20 days. Although the price has been raised, those who should consume will still consume, and the shipment has not been greatly affected.
However, the dealers who have the confidence to raise prices do not account for the majority. There are thousands of traders gathered in Hunan Gaoqiao food market, and many dealers' stores are filled with all kinds of small brand products. Manager Zhang, a small brand dealer, told reporters that recently, our products have not raised their prices. Many of those who come to purchase are small shopkeepers. Since this year, they have higher sensitivity to product prices and will compare prices repeatedly. If we sell expensive, we will be passive in pressing the goods. Even if the profit is a little thinner, we should survive this off-season first.
Over the weekend, a small retail shopkeeper who came to purchase told reporters that business is not easy to do now. If the original market is good, the purchase price is tens of thousands of yuan at a time, and some brand and non brand products will be matched. But now the purchase is in small quantities and mainly small brand products, because opening stores in non urban areas will directly affect the number of people who buy.
In this regard, a person in charge of tracking the FMCG market for a long time in Hunan told the financial associated press that leisure food belongs to optional consumer goods. At present, the prosperity of consumer demand is not high. After consumption "dimensionality reduction", the price increase will have an impact on sales. Small brands dare not speak lightly of price increase if they want to maintain market share. Since the beginning of the year, the sales of gift boxes such as nuts, which they have learned from the channel information, still have a slight increase stimulated by the price increase, but the sales volume will decline slightly. In terms of categories, the growth rate of Tangqiao and puffed products is good, including Valentine's day, February 22 and the subsequent March 8th women's day, which promotes the demand and consumption of Tangqiao food. There are many kinds of snack foods and the manufacturers are scattered. Since there are many "surplus grains" in consumers' homes during the Spring Festival, the sales will enter a flat period next. It is expected that the sales will not turn prosperous until the end of March or April at the earliest.
He also said that from the perspective of inventory, the inventory days of some dealers in the first half of February were about 10 days. Because of the rapid destocking during the Spring Festival, replenishment began in the second half of February. At present, the inventory turnover days are about 25-30 days. From the perspective of consumption trend, some low sugar and low calorie health online red new flavor products have increased significantly. From the perspective of terminal channels, HEMA and jd.com rarely provide home service, with a year-on-year increase of more than double digits in recent two months. The sales of traditional supermarkets are gradually declining due to the radius of service scene and commodity structure, with an estimated decline of about 5%.
Another Changsha engaged in community group buying president Wang also told reporters that the manufacturer's price rise must have an impact on the market sales end, and there is a process for downstream consumers to accept it. This year's Spring Festival is earlier than in previous years. Previously, dealers did not dare to distribute too much goods, and the general inventory is not high. Due to the rising price of raw materials, the price increase of manufacturers will be transmitted to dealers. Dealers passively enter higher than higher. At present, the market demand tends to be weak after the year. As the price of raw materials is still unstable, we are more cautious about the strength of goods preparation.
In addition, the reporter visited a number of supermarkets and showed that most of the melon seeds Series in Qiaqia are aged between 1-3 months, and the sales area accounts for more than half of them, which are listed in a more prominent position. The price of 108G new packaging is 7.5 yuan / bag. According to the sales clerk, it was originally sold for more than 6 yuan, but the price has been raised at present; The goods age of Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) products without price increase before is basically within 2 months, and the distribution varieties are more diversified. Some supermarkets have promotional activities. The promotional price of baking bulk products priced at 25.8 yuan / kg is 19.9 yuan / kg, and the promotional time is 3 days; Most of the seasonings Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) whose prices have been adjusted are basically within 3 months.
Increase in raw materials and new products
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) recently, the first to open the price increase mode, said in an institutional survey that the company adjusted the ex factory price of sunflower seed series products, pumpkin seeds and small and fragrant watermelon seeds on October 22 last year, and the price increase range of each category ranged from 8% to 18%. The price adjustment of the company was relatively smooth, and the adjustment was basically completed within two months. In the short term, the price adjustment has no impact on the sales volume. In the long term, it needs to be further observed.
The company believes that the price of sunflower seeds will be affected by many factors in the future. With the rise of some price indexes, it is expected that the cost of raw materials may increase slowly in the future. The company will continue to expand channels, implement channel intensive cultivation, million terminal project and digital platform construction, and actively promote the layout of new channels, including catering channels, gift channels, etc.
Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) insiders said that the company plans to hold new product launches in many cities at the end of February for the first round of investment promotion. The new products include taste nuts and peanut products of Ganyuan brand, baking, puffing and crispy products of sub brands.
According to the feedback from several food companies in Hunan, due to the different composition of raw materials, the pressure on the company is also different. According to the reporter, the price increase of Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) is 3% - 5%, which is mainly to deal with the rise in the cost of duck and sideline raw materials caused by the feed cost. Due to the strong toughness of the company's products and the formation of consumption habits, the small price increase has not affected the sales of stores, and the part of the increase in profits will be shared with dealers. Insiders close to the company told reporters that they did not see the decline in sales volume caused by the price rise from the purchase end, the market has high acceptance of products, and consumers are not particularly sensitive to the price of bulk food, especially the post-90s and post-00s; In addition, the marketing measures of brand rejuvenation have achieved good results.
The person said that the price of raw materials generally shows an upward trend, and Jue Wei still has relatively small cost pressure compared with other companies. The company has built a nationwide supply chain network with a radius of Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) kilometers, which has advantages in material procurement cost, production and distribution efficiency and so on. If the epidemic situation is stable this year, the price of raw materials should be stable.
Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) said that from 2021, the prices of raw materials such as oil, soybean and duck breast meat increased more. Anchovy jerky, the main raw material, has alleviated the rising pressure of some other materials due to the company's strategic inventory. At present, the prices of some raw materials have fallen. In the future, the company will pay close attention to the price changes of raw materials, and the overall impact on the performance in 2022 is still uncertain.
Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) insiders told reporters that the price of raw materials has risen, the profits of the industry have been squeezed, and the cost pressure at the production end has increased. The company raised the price of condiments by 3% - 7% (average price increase of 5%) at the end of last year. The price increase also takes into account the acceptance of consumers. Dealers will have corresponding sales strategies according to the market feedback, which will not have a great impact from the perspective of consumers, Subsequent companies are less likely to raise prices again.
This year, the company will develop to the medium and high-end product line, focus on the promotion of salt reduction series products, and improve the revenue and gross profit by adjusting the product structure. The way to play is to use traditional channels as the stock market and emerging channels as the incremental market.
In the sound of "rising", there is also a calm voice in the industry Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) relevant people said that the price increase is not necessarily a must kill skill, but sometimes it is also a double-edged sword. The company's countermeasure is to reduce the cost through the advantages of the supply chain. Continue to sink channels and expand market share by improving product cost performance. However, if some raw materials remain high, in order to ensure the gross profit margin, we will consider raising the price of some single products. Strategically, first, focus on large single products, second, channel sinking, and third, all channel construction. Accelerate the expansion of community group buying, e-commerce, snack monopoly and other fields through quantitative packaging.
several brands have raised their prices and it will take time to wait for the performance to "blossom"
Statistics show that the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2021 was only 1.7%, the lowest since August 2020. Compared with the average growth rate of total retail sales in the past two years, it was only 3.9%, far lower than the average annual growth rate of the epidemic. In addition, the average growth rate of residents' income was 6.9%, lower than the average growth rate before the epidemic.
\u3000\u3000 "From the demand side, the interference of the epidemic and the gradual slowdown of economic growth have had a negative impact on consumer demand. Some people have formed the habit of purchasing goods through online or community group purchase; under the pressure of growth on the income side, enterprises often increase sales expenses to promote old and new products; from the cost side, raw materials, transportation, energy and labor costs are rising , the gross profit margin is under pressure, and the impact of price increase on large single product brands with sufficient market share is relatively weak, and subsequent peer companies still need market verification. "The above FMCG analysts believe that the price increase of the company's products generally takes 1-2 months to be fully transmitted to the end stores, and its subsequent impact remains to be observed.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) food and beverage researcher analyzed that at present, the consumption boom is still not high, and the epidemic is scattered fermentation, but these pessimistic expectations are relatively sufficient. The market continues to reduce its expectations for the quarterly report of Q4 + 22q1 in 21, but it is not pessimistic after adjustment, waiting for opportunities in tracking.
It believes that the main line of the food sector is still price increase and performance speed, and the first stage is mainly event catalysis. The second stage is the transition period of price increase. The performance of each company is differentiated. The dominant leader with a better competition pattern has a smooth transfer of price increase, such as Qiaqia. The third stage is the performance fulfillment period of the whole sector, which can focus on elastic opportunities. It is currently in the second stage of price increase.
