In the medium and long term, the three major external contagion risks haunt a shares, and the Shanghai composite index still has the risk of re entering the correction area. Under the defensive thinking, the attraction of the bond market and A-share blue chip targets is strengthening.
war increases uncertainty risk
The war between Russia and Ukraine is widespread. In war economics, the stock market is facing uncertainty - the supply chain interruption caused by war or economic sanctions affects the sustainability of corporate profits, and the uncertainty of liquidity shrinks the valuation of the stock market. In other words, the jungle rule of "money is the source of power of war" is also suitable for wartime stock markets. The stock markets of marginal countries and even vassal countries are facing "shortage of funds", while the central countries make war money due to the influx of deterministic funds.
The Russian RTS index fell as low as 610.33 on Thursday, falling more than 50% in a single day, down 68.44% from its peak in October last year. This point first appeared on October 8, 2003. The dollar rose as high as 89.994:1 against the Russian Ruble on Thursday, with an intraday rise of more than 10%, compared with an average of 30.69:1 in 2003 Over the past 20 years, the earnings of Russian stocks denominated in US dollars have been much lower than the nominal earningscenter>
